The big news over the past 48 hours has obviously been OPEC’s surprise decision “not” to cut oil production.
In a world of increasingly “lower demand” for oil ( further confirmation of a truly “global slowdown” ) The Saudi’s have opted to sustain production of 30 million barrels per day, keeping market share and putting a real squeeze on The American shale / fracking business, that generally needs to see oil at 75-80 barrel just to remain profitable.
The net effect is generally perceived as “net negative” for oil exporting countries, and could also be a potential catalyst for weakness in U.S equities, with indices carrying “significant weighting” of oil / energy related companies.
The Saudi’s can produce oil much , much cheaper than other nations so in keeping production output high ( and in turn driving prices lower ) there may be more to this than first meets the eye.
A strategic move to drive other oil exporters ( in particular The U.S with it’s high costs of production ) out of the market? 65 dollar bbl oil puts the majority of U.S oil exporters on the back foot and potentially “out of business” should these price levels remain, not to mention driving home the point that “indeed” global demand for oil is certainly on the decline.
I believe it was a 35-40% decrease in the price of oil that also proceeded equities downturns in both 2008 as well 2011.
We are almost exactly at the same point with oil prices as of this morning, so it remains to be seen “what reaction” we may see here in the West as markets digest the information.
First the currency war and now perhaps a “commodity war”? Needless to say….never a dull moment here these days – with “yet another shocker” rippling through markets here this week.
Let’s see what The Central Banks do next right? As this has absolutely nothing to do with you or I.