I’m going to try and go easy – as I know many of the readers here are very much so invested in Gold. As well please keep in mind – I too believe in the long term story.
But with such macro forces at work – it absolutely pains me to envision you sitting there at home, considering every little tick up and down, gaps, bollinger bands, cycles, COT, and the most ridiculous of all – “selling on strength and buying on weakness numbers” – on “paper gold” through GLD!
It’s Ridiculous! Stop it! Stop it right now!
I’ve even heard some of you consider that Uncle Ben’s 85 billion dollars a month could in some way be “good” for gold prices?? Have you lost your mind? Seriously! It’s 100% completely the opposite!
Ask yourself this: Who on earth could believe the dollar’s exchange rate in relation to other currencies if the dollar was seen collapsing in value in relation to gold and silver?
This would completely defeat the money printing effort of the Fed – and completely undermine the bond buying!
The Fed is a private bank! with one goal and one goal only – to profit! They can’t possibly let the value of gold skyrocket if they intend to kill the U.S dollar! Think about it!
So……The Federal Reserve uses its dependent “wallstreet bank buddies” to short the precious metals markets. By selling naked shorts in the paper bullion market against the rising demand for physical possession, the Federal Reserve is then able to drive the price of gold down.
Bullion prices take a big hit, bullishness subsides and the flow of dollars into bullion is stopped….and the money printing can continue.
As long as the Fed continues to print ( and soon looks to print more ) I am at odds with any suggestion that gold will do anything more than trade flat at best.
In any case – bring it on then……I’m ready.
It’s funny you know….the stories we’ve heard from our parents.
The stories they told of “how hard it was” and of the struggles they faced. Stories of “the way it was” and the sacrifice needed…..if only just to survive.
As a child I likely didn’t listen much. Only now in this “attempt at adulthood” am I truly thankful to have learned many, many important things from my parents. Among other things, based in the fact that they never had it easy.
There was no family money. There was no house to inherit, no business to take on, no riches stashed away for the future purchase of additional “silver spoons”. My parents worked hard.
I work hard.
Without these “stories of struggle and sacrifice”, without these “tales of triumph”, these examples of “strength in the face of adversity” – who would I be? What would I have become?
Well…….I have my own stories now. And as my parents may grow “equally disinterested” as I may have been as a boy – I guess it all comes around full circle.
Trading is the most difficult challenge you will ever face – for reasons you are currently not aware.
Word hard……………………stick to your roots.
Fiat currency is money that derives its value from government regulation or law. The term fiat currency is used when the fiat money is used as the main currency of the country. The term derives from the Latin fiat (“let it be done”, “it shall be”).
The term fiat currency has been defined variously as:
- any money declared by a government to be legal tender.
- state-issued money which is neither convertible by law to any other thing, nor fixed in value in terms of any objective standard.
- money without intrinsic value.
While gold or silver-backed representative money entails the legal requirement that the bank of issue redeem it in fixed weights of gold or silver, fiat money’s value is unrelated to the value of any physical quantity. Even a coin containing valuable metal may be considered fiat currency if its face value is higher than its market value as metal.
Another interesting point, when we consider how money functions” in our society as a “debt instrument”. The Central Bank creates money out of thin air, then exchanges that “new money” for “interest bearing instruments” such as Government Bonds.
You purchase the bonds with an expectation of making some kind of return on that bond (and where do you imagine that “extra few %’ points” come from over time?)
Your taxes go up – that’s where.
Round and round we go as governments keep spending – and you keep paying for it.
It’s been a slow week here and I apologize for the “lack of interesting copy”, but when I’ve not actively trading there usually isn’t a pile to say. I imagine things will pick up here again soon.
This is a forex blog – isn’t it?
You know – I’m a little hurt. As hard as I try, it still appears that our beloved friends at Google still don’t seem to think this is a forex blog. I type “forex blog” and all I get are a number of websites looking to sell you some “forex trading system”, or a couple of videos showing me “what is forex”, or “how I can make money trading forex”….and poor, poor Kong – still nowhere to be seen.
If this isn’t a forex blog – I’m not really sure what to do about it. Ideally – the gang at Google (who I’m sure “must” have an interest in forex) would be thrilled to have a look into the real life “trials and tribulations” of a real life forex trader…although seamingly – such is not the case.
Oh well..I will continue to do the best I can, and look forward to the day, blessed with a “front row seat” in the listings……….recognized as a “forex blog”.
Scuze the plug you guys…..but I gotta swim with the sharks here – and every post can’t be a “doozy”.
I’ve been in and out all day, and again return to my computer – only to find the same. It’s a freakin gong show out there! So if I can’t trade it – I might as well blog about it.
One of the most popular articles I’ve written “2013 – You Will Never Trade It” comes to mind.
The markets have more or less been grinding up a day, down a day for the past 2 weeks – and the direction continues to be questioned. Granted the overall trend is still up, but we’ve seen some relative short-term damage – and many factors have come in to play to suggest a correction is needed. The last week has had the Canadian “TSX” erase the entire 2013 gains to date, “Bank of Japan” has now become a household term ( a little late considering we’ve been talking about it forever) , and earnings are set to kick off with Alcoa after the close today.
If there was ever a time that one would be thankful to be safely sitting in cash – I’d say this it.
I made out like a bandit on the huge JPY slide over the past few months but admittedly – have 100% completely missed the latest ( and most massive ) move. It’s too bad – but its a part of trading, and so is life.
Forex has a funny way of “kicking your ass” so….when anything has travelled so far/so fast – you really can’t go chasing it. You get back at it….you apply what you know – and you find the next trade.
As it stands….and as boring a read as it may be for you guys – I still sit (for the most part) 100% in cash….taking the odd “little trade” here and there to keep the moss from growing.
Be safe – and don’t worry – things will get really, really exciting here soon.
This I can promise.
It’s crazy out there.
Currencies are literally “all over the map” with several of the usual correlations giving traders/analysts a good run for their money. Eur up and stocks down, continued JPY strength in the face of risk aversion, and the British Pound (GBP) on a tear.
In equities the transports ($tran) have taken it on the chin, with Fed EX pummelled over last several days, and the massive market leader APPL having lost 200 billion in market cap. 200 billion! – Poof…gone.
Earnings will likely disappoint, we’ve got seasonal selling ahead (“sell in may?”), tensions in North Korea moving higher, terrible employment numbers (again) in the U.S , and of course – and any number of “unforseen events” far more likely bad than good.
So…..Is it a dip or a turn?
Time to trade or invest?
I’ll have to leave it up to you decide the best course of action, as you’ve all seen my charts and read my views. Regardless of any short-term action ( as the possibility of another “pop higher” in risk always remains ) seriously….
If a broker/trader hasn’t picked a top, or the area to sell and book profits – what possibly likelihood would there be in timing a “scoop buy / dip” for a few more points?
For the most part – by the time retail is convinced the water’s are safe, the move has already passed – and you’re once again caught……buying the top.
To tell you the truth – I’m a little frustrated with you. Ya’ know…….
I’ve written the articles. I’ve posted the charts. I’ve outlined the underlaying factors, and have even gone as far as to suggest effective methods of protection – should things go South.
But you don’t listen. You don’t care.
You’ve got it in your head that “everything’s gonna be fine” and “scoff” at suggestion to the contrary.
You refuse to consider the fact that you’re not in control, you don’t have the answers, it’s bigger than you, stronger than you, wider than you. You can’t accept the fact that if you don’t make a decision fast……this thing is gonna crush you like a bug.
Well……news for you my friend….welcome to the club!
You don’t think I feel the same? You don’t think I question the same?
Give in to mother market ma man….. cuz she always wins. ……….She always wins!
Best advice I could give…………get to cash.
Stop worrying about the “returns you’re getting”. Aleve the pressure and do some math. Consider 6 months to a year with no exposure to the market – and the amount of money you’d of made…..or more importantly ……the amount of money you’d have lost. It’s just not worth it.
This is a top not a bottom. I can assure you – you won’t miss a thing.
I want to continue with my trades long JPY.
I want to place these trades (a few short pips underneath current price action) in currency pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. I want to get short NZD/JPY as well AUD/JPY not to mention CAD/JPY. I want to push a bunch of buttons. I want to enter a bunch of orders. I want to do it right this second! Right here! Right now! My god let’s do it! Do it! DO IT!
But no……….I can’t.
I’ve got patience. I’ve got trade rules. I’ve got plans.
I’ve got millions of trade opportunities in front of me, and a lifetime of trades – lying in wait.
Most importantly of all. I’ve got discipline.
I’ll sit tight here a while longer and see how things shape up come London open. Frankly, I’m not satisfied with this correction in Nikkei and JPY and still feel there is further downside in risk. I still have reservations about taking positions of any reasonable size so will stick to my guns….and stay on the sidelines.
If you’re seeking incredible trade advice and stock market commentary but haven’t already visited / joined the gang at http://www.ibankcoin.com (although I’d find it hard to believe – considering how popular they are) you can now get your fill of “yours truly” there as well.
I am honored to now take part – and contribute what I can, along side this talented group of traders.
I look forward to seeing you all at Ibank – and will continue in “Kong like fashion” to trade what I see, and tell it like it is.
I’m sure we can all learn alot – not to mention make an awful lot of money.
I’m gonna make this quick as to get something else posted here before this site turns into a soapbox.
As per suggestion some days ago – the Japanese stock market has most certainly “corrected”. Unfortunately I got cold feet before the weekend and trimmed my positions considerably – only banking an addition 2-3% as opposed to the amount needed to purchase the yacht I’ve had my eye on. These things happen, – and I am no worse for it. Shoulda , coulda , woulda has no place in my trading, as the opportunities continue to present themselves in bountiful fashion.
I will sit patiently throughout the day, and allow volume to pick up from the “anemic state” we’ve floundered in over the past week. I’m not exactly sure where the hell everyone went – but assume “running with bunnies” and “gargling chocolate” may have been on the list of activities.
In light of the sell off overseas – and its implications with respect to “risk aversion” – all is unfolding exactly as planned.
Come closer little rabbit – I’ve got some stocks I’d love to sell you here, come closer…a little closer…that’s right – just a little closer – BAM!
Im 100% cash yet again – with orders in place “should JPY continue higher”.