Stocks And Currencies – Major Shake In 2017

It clearly looks like this will stretch into the new year…….before we see a major turn in both currency and equities markets. Money is pouring into silver and gold with the gold miners ( and gold complex in general ) finally showing us not only the daily cycle low….but quite possibly the “yearly” cycle low as well.

 

Gold_Miners_Bottomed

Gold_Miners_Bottomed

This makes for some pretty solid trades as……The EUR will bottom along side gold and silver, the U.S Dollar slowly rolls over for extended losses and equities make a solid correction.

Sound about right? This is EXACTLY how I am positioned with short trades in USD/JPY, long silver and gold miners ( GPL bought at 1.27 ) as well limping into further “long JPY” ideas / shorting the commods ( AUD,NZD and CAD ) with marijuana companies holding tough.

End of the year selling, and who knows what other “market shenanigans” playing out these last days of 2016. I see a large-scale correction first half of January 2017.

USD Finally Fails – Take Your Shot!

The US Dollar has torn higher for the past several days and general market sentiment would suggest that “no one believes it will ever fall”.

You know what usually happens next.

I’m taking another crack at it “short” here today with consideration that…..this may very well mark a final top in USD and set the stage for a considerable decline. I know I know…….but once you have a trade plan – you stick to it (to the degree that your money management will allow you to stay in the game). I’ve not entered new currency trades for quite some time now so “I too” need to see some action.

 

USD/JPY short…EUR/USD long…holding miners and buying weed.

 

 

 

Canopy Growth Corp – Marijuana Soon Legal in Canada

Canada has recently released it’s plan to formally legalize the sale of Marijuana. The Marijuana related stocks have already taken off, but there are literally “opportunities abound” here in coming months. I strongly recommend that you start doing some company research NOW as these things are set for “stellar growth” through 2017.

Canopy Growth Corp being the largest player in the sector.

Canopy_Growth_Corp_Chart

Canopy_Growth_Corp_Chart

These companies ( and stocks ) are currently on fire, with the initial rush now over….providing a fantastic pullback and entry opportunity coming here soon.

Start getting a watch list together / ask me for further suggestions as these things should shoot for the moon as Canada finalizes it’s plan.

This is happening. This will happen in 2017.

Markets Extended – Dow Most Overbought In 20 Years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now “the most overbought it has been” in something like 20 years.

Dow_Most_Overbought

Dow_Most_Overbought

As markets looked ahead for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to confirm a widely expected 25 basis point hike in interest rates at 2PM ET (19:00GMT) Wednesday, attention was more likely to focus on the updated economic forecasts and particularly the “dot plot” showing policymakers’ expectations for the future path of interest rates, along with the follow-up press conference by Fed chief Janet Yellen, in an attempt to extrapolate how many more increases could be expected in 2017.

Fed fund futures currently put the odds of a hike at this meeting at 100%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Additionally, all 120 economists surveyed in the latest Reuters’ poll agreed that the U.S. central bank would opt to tighten policy, while a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) survey returned similar estimates.

Though there is always a possibility that the markets could be surprised by the lack of a move or a larger 50 basis point move, most experts think the chances are extremely slim based on what the Fed has communicated thus far.

2017 rate hikes

Looking further down the road, markets have priced in the next tightening to occur in June 2017 with odds standing at 61.6%. That is the first policy meeting where the probability passes the 50% threshold.

According to the WSJ poll, economists on average expected the Fed to hike rates three times in 2017, a slightly more aggressive path than the median outcome of two increases that policymakers themselves penciled in with the last dot-plot released in September.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that the Fed will stand pat on expectations for two rate increases in 2017.

“While this is twice as fast as the pace in 2015 and 2016, it fits any definition of prudent and cautious,” they said.

Too early to speculate on possible new fiscal policies

Since the U.S. elections, markets have speculated that incoming President Donald Trump would embark on fiscal policies including infrastructure spending that could serve to not only foster economic growth, but also to usher in inflation, placing additional pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy to avoid falling behind the curve.

Several Fed officials have indicated that his election had not changed their outlook because there were too many unknowns with regard to what policies Trump would implement and what their overall impact on the economy would be.

Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said last Monday that it was “still early to have a good idea of what fiscal policies and other events are going to mean.”

“As policies actually are enacted as opposed to just talked about, I think the appropriate thing to do will be to respond to them as they unfold,” Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplanalso said.

New York Fed president William Dudley, known for being the policymaker most aligned with Fed chair Janet Yellen’s way of thinking, also judged last week that “it is premature to reach firm conclusions about what will likely occur.”

However, Dudley did admit that if market expectations for fiscal policy becoming more expansionary were realized, then market participants could be right that the Fed “will likely respond by tightening monetary policy a bit more quickly than previously anticipated.”

In that sense, Yellen is widely expected to take a “wait and see” attitude at the post-decision press conference at 2:30PM ET (19:30GMT), stating that the Fed’s future movements will be data dependent.

Goldman Sachs did point to the fact that their U.S. economists expect a “more sizeable tightening cycle than the market” which could lead to further strength in the dollar as the market re-prices expectations.

“That said, we also think that chair Yellen will continue to emphasize that monetary policy is not on a pre-set course and that the data will dictate the future path of interest rates,” they added.

 

p.s I ripped this article from investing.com

Spot Silver Getting Close – Area Of Support Identified

The spot price of Silver is now reaching an area of considerable support.

The near term “five month fall” from 19.50 – some 20% drop…now looking like a great place to start thinking about buying.

silver_chart

spot_silver_chart

Start “thinking about buying”  –  not taking out a second mortgage and going all in (this would be ridiculous) as you can’t really argue with the chart. If you’ve been patiently waiting (as I have ) to see the precious metals not only bottom….but actually start moving higher….you can’t argue with the chart.

Maybe 15 bucks is the low, who can say for certain but the “area of price” is starting to look attractive for longer term buy and hold on Silver.

It’s boring I know. ” Hey guys I just picked up some silver, and it hasn’t moved in price forever!” – Nice work Kong. You really rocked that silver trade.

Gimme a break………

Take it for what it is….as you’re too lazy to pull the chart yourselves, just sitting and waiting for your broker to call you. Stick it. He’s too busy counting his commissions.

Spot Silver opportunity – something to be aware of.