You get the message. This is setting up to be one of the largest scale moves ( downward ) we will have seen in quite some time. As suggested many, many moons ago…I see the Japanese Nikkei as putting in a “lower high” on very large time frames. This is the market that leads. USD/JPY bounce is gonna flop hard.
I see SP 500 / Dow / Risk Appetite topping out with “near to all time highs” or even “all time highs” with a large-scale / major correction to follow. Can you understand that the investment world at large is “scared sh%tless” with respect to the current geopolitical situation? Let alone the U.S Gov gone broke and now nearing “shutdown” over the weekend.
Remember that pesky “debt ceiling” I was ranting about some months ago? Of course you don’t well…..if these boneheads in Washington don’t get their heads together over the next few days….Government shutdown.
Oh the irony. Trump needs billions for the wall? ( never gonna happen ) and promising tax cuts / infrastructure spending? ( never gonna happen ). The dems and repubs can’t get together on anything “of value” but they suuuuuuure can when it comes time to increase the debt ceiling right? Unreal.
I could just as well jump on this now as this is so telegraphed / so glaring. Short risk. Short USD. Short humanity.
We’re headed lower FAST, and with my profits in gold/ short USD via Forex – I will purchase enough graphene to build my elevator to space.
This set’s up time and time again when you’ve got the timing right. Gold is going to complete its correction here very shortly, and there are several “juicy trades” on deck. Every “wanna be stock guy” on the planet has this chart / set up on his screen.
Something interesting though…
The U.S Dollar “has bounced” against a large number of currencies but “vewy very quietwy” as The Euro has bounced EVEN more! This is not something you see very often and ( in my view ) is suggestive of some very VERY SERIOUS currency repositioning.
This is setting up for “crash like / waterfall action” in USD – and I would expect U.S Equities to follow.
I “could enter as early as Friday as this is a slam dunk. Risk gonna come off HARD next week.
Here is what you do:
Wait until you see gold bottom / dollar top. You need to “get ready and wait” as this one’s gonna help you pay for that big vacation you’ve been planning.
The FOMC meeting is early next week so I would not be surprised if we just bounce around ’til then. Get ready and wait…I’ll post specifics over coming days but this is the plan. This is gonna be a doozy!
I’ve sat out a few days and missed some pretty decent action in USD – as the slide continues.
This will continue for much longer, so I’m going to take a day er two here to let it breathe – then jump back in on the short side. The U.S Dollar is attempting to find a bottom, not only in an immediate sense ( having absolutely no luck ) but more so in an “intermediate / medium term” sense. Let me explain…
When you see a continued pattern of “lower lows and lower highs” on a daily chart / time frame you’ve got to understand….this is no small time trend. We are talking about weeks and week of a given asset falling lower, then lower than the previous low, then lower than “that” low until finally a much larger “intermediate cycle” completes. You dig?
The U.S Dollar will bounce here and likely bring in a large number of traders assuming this is a bottom. This IS NOT even close. Look for a decent bounce here on the 1H as a great place to re enter short.
That’s all I’ve got for today folks as I am busy busy with “yet another venture” so…watch for the bounce here in “risk in general” and get your levels checked/locked and loaded on all correlating pairs – set for another round of “short use trades”.
Let’s put this in perspective first.
You live in a tiny “tiny” bubble. You see the world through the broken lens of your local media, and can’t imagine a world where “fake news” actually exists. Wait…..you actually believe the news on your local news channel?
Aside from the human interest stories ( often highlighting people with their dogs…or more often than not – people “crying the blues” about how hard they have it ) your local news serves only as a simple extension of the “administration” and the message you are “required to view” – short of actually developing opinions/ideas of your own.
Television shepherds to living room sheep.
Face it. You have absolutely no clue what is going on, short of tuning in each night with your Cheetos and Budweiser in hand…having the local “news gal” spew crap ’til you finally switch to the game.
The world is moving much faster than you can imagine. Currencies tell all – T.V’s suck.
Trade wise…..hmmm…….an interesting junction although in all – really not that interesting.
Commodities “in general” are up against a bit of resistance here so – I could suggest a few things.
Commodities At Resistance
- Take profits in Gold as it’s been a hoot ( not to say the long term play is 100% totally still in play ).
- Take stock of the current geo political situation and ask yourself..truly…..is this really the time to go “all in” on the long side? Don’t be a dumb ass.
The powers that be aren’t quite ready to switch the algo’s from “buy to sell” in a macro sense, but in all honesty….even a run towards the highs doesn’t really amount to much.
Sometimes “no trade” is the best trade…and I’m not suggesting anyone get’s all giddy bout stocks but….we’ve got war! We’ve got war now so…..what does any American President do when his ratings slip past the red line??
You betcha…..time to really the troops! Time to get that ‘Merican blood pumping! We’re going to war! Let’s just start a war!
So obvious….so “cliche”.
I’m in cash….and will stay that way for at least a day er two. You know where I’ll be should anything “significant” actually come to play.
Simply said – I’ve done somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-800 pips and taken “immeasurable profits” here today. There could be more on the table but…I don’t work that way.
I have no back button in my browser.
USD/JPY has now touched the 200SMA “from above” as well AUD/JPY ( my ultimate risk barometer! ) so…I don’t need to squeeze a single penny more.
I am 100% cash ( short of my recent purchase of ACB – Aurora Cannabis ) at 2.78 – Feel free to ask me about that.
Rock n roll my people! Good luck to all!
It’s not a contest, but a serious question. Is anybody “else” making any money today?
I know. You’re petrified of coming to the “dark side”, as getting short “risk” is akin to casting spells and sacrificing small animals but hopefully…..something can still be learned from this. Markets behave very differently when the driving factor is “fear” and not “greed”. The moves are faster, the choices more difficult, but in most cases the rewards are also “unearthly”.
As suggested some days ago…indeed The U.S Dollar has hit the skids and the vast number of “risk averse” trades are well in profit. My plan was in effect last Tuesday.
A solid “Dow down -500 points” over coming days would have me back on a beach and shouldn’t even take “too big a bite” out of you Bulls so in all……everyone can win as long as you are on the right side of the trade at any given time.
The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) is up across the board with both AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY behaving as expected. USD/JPY continues lower, with EUR and GBP both making gains. It’s a full sweep here.
Even JNUG hanging in profit – however slight.
It’s more of a holistic approach, having these correlations burned into the back of skull like a cerebral tattoo. When one goes…..they all go. Even The Nikkei has broken support as foreseen many, many days ago.
How far we can go here is still anyone’s guess, as it’s not as much the “specific” levels I look at ( as I draw my lines of support and resistance with my Crayola crayon and not my laser beam ) but more so the combination of “price and time”.
Baring any significant news ( good news? – I highly doubt that ) I would expect to hang in here through the week, and likely book profits quickly in these times of continued Central Bank intervention, behind the curtains of shenanigans.
Bang on the money.
I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.
How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?
April 11th I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.
It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.
If you don’t have a plan. You’ll never succeed at this.
Watching the T.V or looking for a quick tip in some bullshit newsletter is exactly that – bullshit. You might catch one here or there….but without a well thought out plan “days n’ days” ahead of time – you’re hooped.
Recall some days ago I suggested that The U.S Dollar “might” roll over early ( along side U.S stocks and risk appetite in general ) providing for the next fantastic trading opportunity? I think I gave it 6-8 days max.
So here we are. Some 6 days later and whatever “rally” we may have expected in “risk” has really yet to materialize. And of course, Thursdays are “data days” where Wall St. usually makes some of it’s larger moves so…..the timing is exactly right.
The plan is simple.
If USD rolls over and puts in a “swing high” – I’m shorting risk via the following currency pairs:
- Short: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and even CAD/JPY
- Long: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
- Then some form of play on Gold via any number of instruments.
If The U.S Dollar does not roll over/ swing high Thursday. I will “entertain” long ideas, but likely wait until Monday for entry.
So there it is. This is what the pro’s are doing “if indeed” risk comes off….and if not? I’ll look to jump on board for a few little trades in Kool-aide.
I hear it’s all the rage these days.
As most of you already know, I follow The Japanese Nikkei more closely than American Markets as its my firm belief that we will see larger scale moves reflected their first.
The Nikkei has been trading completely flat for a whopping 16 weeks now ( 4 months flat as a pancake ) at levels that are starting to suggest that “a lower high has already been made” on a larger scale time frame.
Let me show you.
Here is the “weekly” chart of The Nikkei clearly showing the 16 weeks of flat/range trading which, unto itself isn’t really that big a deal.
Nikkei Trading Flat For Weeks
Now if we “zoom out” even further things start to look a bit more interesting as we start to put this “congestion zone” into perspective.
Here is the “monthly” chart of The Nikkei.
Nikkei Monthly Chart
It’s my feelings that The Nikkei actually topped “mid 2015” and that we’ve spent the entire last year and a half in “distribution mode” – with respect to the continued pump in U.S Equity prices. Japan’s stock market has been unable to share in the Kool-aide drinking, as cheaply printed Yen has flooded over to America, been converted to USD and used to buy stocks.
This is why you see the incredible correlation with U.S stocks and the currency pair USD/JPY ( bet you where wondering about that! ) as the pair rises when stocks are purchased and falls as stocks are sold.
I don’t see The Nikkei reaching for new highs but rather (and more likely) breaking thru support and moving along to create a very large / significant “lower high” on a monthly time frame. Things could get quite ugly from there.
This does not bode well for the “risk on trade”.