The ViX trade ( long UVXY at 11.80 ) has spiked 14% this morning alone.
Holding short USD trades against a number of other currencies – still seeing trades climb higher as USD continues to “waterfall” ( remember the “suggested waterfall some days ago? ) as 17 days of longs holding positions – wiped out in a single session.
You’ve “hoped” and you’ve “held” long positions for a full 17 days now…..almost a full month you will never get back.Poof! Wiped in a single session.
I’m back in “celebration mode” here this morning as things have worked out rather well for ol Kong.
How do I time this stuff?
First of all……I check my emotions at the door, and don’t take an “emotional stand” on whether markets are moving higher or lower. I don’t give a rats ass…and you shouldn’t either. If you are learning to “trade” then you’ve got to stop thinking about “investing”. You continue to deny that anything can go wrong, and you continue to view “the short side” as some kind of demonic evil. Ridiculous.
You don’t think the big banks and Wall St. big shots get short? Please…..pull your head outta the sand. As much as the media coverage may show you “Carnage on Wall St. as Stocks Slide” – these guys where selling you stock all the way up and “gladly” shift the algorithm’s to “short as f&%k” to see you get cleaned out. You can guarantee it.
I can go on and on about my technical indicators ( only one – The Kongdicator ) as well my general view of the world ( as cynical as it is ) but neither of these will really give you much insight.
There is a “creativity” in all of this, and it’s something that is learned over years and years of study and practice. It’s the currency markets that provide the most “actionable information” coupled with as large a “macro view” as you can muster – in order to see past the news. A little confidence doesn’t hurt either but that my friends – comes later.
Cycles also play a role as human beings generally move as a heard. If you can start to distinguish the patterns / repetition – eventually you’ll win. This also takes time but…is certainly not beyond the learning / capabilities of your average Joe.
For fun why don’t you pull up a chart and try to count the number of days between significant “lows or highs” in any given asset and see if you can find any pattern. If you look hard enough you will see these same patterns / repetitions on any time frame…only that they become less and less reliable the more granular you go.
Anything under a 1H chart is noise…and even the 1H needs close attention.
Give it a go and get back to me. I’m not much for “teaching this stuff” as much as I am with “sharing my activity” but…hey – let’s see if you come up with anything.