Markets don’t ring bells at bottoms — they whisper. They twitch. They fake you out. They scare the hell out of anyone still clinging to their convictions. And then, right when everyone is exhausted, cynical, and emotionally bankrupt… the turn hits.
That’s exactly where we are right now.
The crowd still thinks this selloff has “more room to go.”
The talking heads are warning about recession again.
The doomers are screaming about global risk.
But the tape?
The tape is telling a very different story.
Let’s break the technicals down — the real clues most traders ignore until it’s too late.
1. Multi-Month Support Held — Clean, Violent Rejection
Equities drilled straight into a major multi-month support shelf — a level tested repeatedly across indices. And every time buyers stepped in.
This latest flush?
Same level, same buyers, same outcome.
Massive wick.
Instant reversal.
Classic bottoming behavior.
Support isn’t magic.
It’s memory — and markets remember where the real money defends.
2. Oversold Conditions Not Seen in Months
This wasn’t your ordinary dip.
Every major oscillator — RSI, stochastics, momentum metrics — went fully washed out on multi-day and multi-week timeframes.
We’re talking deep oversold readings that only show up during panic phases… the same type that precede powerful reversal rallies.
Oversold doesn’t mean “buy.”
Oversold + support + exhaustion means bottom.
And we’ve now checked all three.
3. Momentum Divergences Everywhere
While price was making new lows, momentum stopped following.
A textbook bullish divergence — the trader’s version of a flare gun in the night.
Price lower.
Momentum higher.
That’s the market quietly telling you the bears are out of ammo.
These divergences don’t show up often.
When they do, you don’t argue — you listen.
4. Capitulation Volume — Sellers Gave Up
Volume exploded into the final leg down.
Not steady selling — capitulation selling, the kind that marks the end of a move, not the start of a new trend.
You get two kinds of selloffs:
- Orderly declines, which usually continue
- Panic flushes, which almost always reverse
We just saw the second.
When fear peaks, bottoms form.
5. Internals Are Turning Before Price — Always a Bullish Tell
Breadth indicators stopped falling before the indices did.
New lows hit their crest days earlier.
Volatility spikes failed to expand.
These internals bottoming before the indices is the classic “early signal” of a larger trend reversal.
It’s the herd still looking down while the smart money has already turned around.
6. Seasonality Kicks In — Santa Doesn’t Miss Many Rallies
Forget the fairy-tale version of “Santa Rally.”
Here’s the truth:
When markets bottom in November and breadth turns up, the rally into Christmas is one of the most reliable seasonality windows in finance.
Funds chase performance.
Shorts cover.
Retail returns.
Everyone piles in.
Seasonality isn’t the reason for the reversal —
it’s the fuel.
The technicals lit the match.
Seasonality pours the gasoline.
Now we rally into Christmas.
Kong… gone.