I’m usually not one for moment to moment market commentary – but on occasion (for example my “risk on” post some weeks ago with reference to getting short JPY) I have been known to do so.
Take it for what it is…as this is a free blog – but if I was ever a buyer of U.S equities (which as a general rule I am not) – I would buy this close – HARD.
Forgive me for a small poke as well but….the American politicians should be absolutely ashamed of themselves. I’m not sure if anyone living in America still thinks they live in a “free country” – but once again stock holders are more or less “held hostage” till (let me guess) late Sunday night…before getting on with their lives – some I’m assuming worried if they will still have a job in 2013 and/or if additional tax hikes will break them.
Its appalling. Its embarrassing. Shame, shame, shame…..
So….obviously – buy stocks!
Im getting short the USD hard as well staying short JPY – long the commods here, as well getting long EUR late this evening or sometime tomorrow.
Good luck America! Good luck!
Hi kong,
Didn’t talk to you for few days. How are you?
Recently has alot of rumors out from the us. Usd seems like getting stronger. How you think on this? I’m still keeping long positions now.
I am well thank you – and have done very well staying short JPY. I am completely “outraged” at the U.S politicians and this ridiculous “fiscal cliff” nonsense. the markets really want to go higher – and I am sticking with the short USD as well short JPY against every under the sun until I see otherwise.
I really just see the USD coming up against its downward sloping trendlines, and imagine that any news of this silly situation in the U.S getting finished – and markets should be set to jump higher into the new year!
Haha… I am still trading gbp/usd. Pounds seems stronger but everytime when us market open is aleays beat the uk market. Sigh… tiring lolz… well, u r still think yen will down? Again, I have never been trade yen currency before 😉
You should have a look at them because with forex it’s the fundamentals that drive price action so……with the new monetary easing coming out of Japan – a weaker Yen is what they want.
Otherwise….that damn gbp/usd is always tricky and quite volatile – the U.S “money printing” of 85 billion a month should push USD down,and if not I imagine they will even plan to do more easing! Unreal how these guys think they can just print there way out of the mess.
Kong,
You are so right! That damn gbp/usd is always tricky and makes you frustrated! Damn it… Perhaps I should have listen to you, shift a bit my attention to jpy/usd. Do you always trade on this pairing?
Many articles saying that the stering will up to 1.6480 in January. Well i am thinking shall I wait for it or… this pairing could not be too greedy sometimes if not will get kill. Hahaha…
Maybe you are right about currencies, but I wouldn’t recommend buying stocks now. I still think volatility is to go much higher. A you said “corelations out the window”.
lkti,
It’s a toss up for sure although – I for one would rather be in “before” this fiscal cliff fiasco gets solved (Sunday night?) and sell into that strength / announcement – but in all you’ve got it – super volatile, and a bit of a crap shoot these days.
Personally I think the U.S stock market is the biggest con job /rip off the states currently has going.
I am not a short term trader. When I say “don’t buy stocks” I don’t mean days, but next few weeks / months.
Interesting – as I would see the next few days / weeks as an absolute “must buy” period considering the USD is about ready to tank here again.
Let’s keep our eyes open and see how things unfold after these “goof balls” in America get this “cliff” deal out of the way.
I would imagine the SP 500 etc gets one final push here in the new year before rolling over and taking a nasty decline but again……don’t follow stocks as closely as currencies.
Come March I plan to be sitting in cash one way or another – and will re evaluate from there!
Maybe SP500 and dollar will tank simultaneously. That would be fun!
Now we are talking!
That wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest! As these days…..it seems that anything can happen.
Hi Kong,
Thanks for sharing your outlook of “SP 500 etc gets one final push here in the new year before rolling over and taking a nasty decline”, I share the same outlook. However, would you have any thoughts on the final push weaning off dates? In another words, would it be okay to assume two weeks rally in S&P and risk assets including precious metals in the new year before the roll over begins? What does your outlook on USD suggest for that?
Thanks again for cutting edge analysis!
-Tushar
I’ve just posted a response to your questions on the main page of the blog. Let me know your thoughts.