Dollar Top – Tomorrow On Follow

One can only wonder how “positive for markets” a 7.5 Earthquake off the coast of Fukushima will be ( no sarcasm there )

Regardless…..USD topping out for the long plunge over the next several weeks.

I’m jumpin on board here shortly, and will likely get picked up sub 99.00 with tonnes of room for lower.

 

usd_topping_out

usd_topping_out

I like the short side, as people freak out and movements are so much bigger.

Steady as she goes…..

 

Timed To Perfection – USD Gets Cooked

I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.

Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.

dollar-on-fire

dollar-on-fire

The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.

Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.

Boom……. thar she be.

 

 

 

 

The Wait Is Over – USD Rejected at 200 SMA

As I am always a touch early……..short USD trades are looking very good here.

One can see that The Buck has had it´s day, and has now been soundly rejected at the 200 SMA.

You guys can look back and recall short trades in Apple – with the exact same set up. Very straight forward…when an asset hits the 200SMA from below, then gets smoked. A very large level of resistance, and generally a pretty clear indication that things will be headed lower.

USD Rejected at the 200 Simple Moving Average

USD-lower-Aug-1

USD-lower-Aug-1

You can look for a million different reasons, but fact remains that a rise in interest rates will blow this market up, and that if anything….further easing will likely make more sense, and that´s bad for USD.

You have to keep in mind that the big boys are ¨spinning the story¨ not sheepishly following along! Long positions by the big boys have already been sold to you, as the common man ¨reactes¨ to the trickle of silly news stories aimed at keeping you on the wrong side of the trade.

You falling for this shit? Grab a backbone. Get informed. Remember the days when The U.S Federal Reserve was printing like mad, and crushing the currency with hopes to boost exports and the economy?

How did that go?

Dollar No More – A Global Perspective

I took this graphic from “somewhere” as it’s a great visual representation of what is “really going on” with the U.S Dollar and international trade.

Dollar_No_More

Dollar_No_More

Don’t be a dope. If the arrows and numbers where pointed in the “other direction” then perhaps you could build a case. The numbers speak for themselves. The U.S “strangle hold” on the world’s reserve, and in turn “slice of the pie” generated via currency exchange ( in order to buy commodities ) is over.

 

Citi Sells All USD Positions – No Really?

Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).

Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”

I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.

I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?

Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.

Little chance of that.

Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.

No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.

More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong

 

 

 

Forex Markets Come Alive – USD Wash Out

Wow.

A very large “gap up” here in the wee hours Sunday night before markets really kick off, and the U.S Dollar continues to surge higher against the E.U currencies.

One can’t imagine a single USD bear left on the planet.

Exactly as it should be…. before the thing tanks.

It’s amazing to me how public perception continues to view USD’s recent surge as “some indication” of a stronger U.S Economy.

How on Earth can The U.S Governement ( as well the crooks at The Fed – a private held bank ) handle the enormous contribution to the “serviceable debt load” ( remember The U.S is “officially broke”, with a continued rise in the “allowable debt ceiling” now just a given ) brought about by a stronger U.S Dollar?

It’s impossible. The Fed mandate is to “kill USD” at whatever costs, as to keep these balls in the air as long as they possibly can.

A strong U.S Dollar “kills” the U.S economy! As exports tank, and the amount/value of outstanding sovereign debt balloons “past” the balloon we already know to be.

Find me an “economist” who can make the arguement that “a strong U.S Dollar is good for America” and I’ll eat my hat.

A strong U.S Dollar represents everything the U.S Gov and The Federal Reserve fear most so….I encourage you to start looking for signs of reversal – as opposed to getting to excited.

 

 

Long EUR/USD at 1.34 – Low Risk Entry

Likely a pretty slow / sleepy to start to the week considering the slow summer months so…

Long EUR/USD still looks like the most reasonable play here for a bounce in risk / move lower in USD.

The JPY pairs are behaving “exactly as expected here” so for those interested in taking a shot ya…..just look to get your stops below those “prior near term lows” and let it be what it will be.

Commod currencies ( AUD / NZD and CAD ) would usually bounce along side risk as well but from what I can see / consider here these past days – they aren’t looking to make any major moves.

With AUD now “finally” showing its hand I think it’s safe to say these currencies have already began the larger “longer term move” in selling off / making the turn.

Sure we can expect a bounce but I really don’t think they’ll get to far.

We’ve identified that AUD has now rolled over on has high a time frame as the 4H – taking months to do so.

This kind of thing is not just “quickly reversed” so again……please consider any further “upside” in AUD to be “counter trend” and trade it accordingly.

I’m adding a couple contracts long EUR/USD here today, and will trade it actively should we see some volume and a solid move.

The benefit of staggering small orders over time should be noted here….as EUR/USD still sits around 1.34 – now going on a full week.

There is “no benefit” in jumping into a trade with your full position / max commitment during times like these, as you tie up capital that essentially just “sits there” – grinding you to shreds.

Forex moves a lot slower than most short-term traders initially understand ( getting caught up in the smaller time frame volatility / chop ) when “in reality” – price is going nowhere.

More in the Members Area

Forex_Kong_Face_Book

Forex_Kong_Face_Book

USD/JPY – A Pair You Can Learn From

We’ve discussed how important this pair is with respect to it’s “drive in equity markets” ( with JPY being sold/borrowed then converted to USD in order to purchase equities ) and it’s interesting to note that:

Regardless of whatever fluctuations we’ve now seen around Yellen’s “slightly more hawkish” comments….USD/JPY refuses to break higher thru the downward sloping trend line that has contained it for so long.

What would appear as “USD strength across the board” really only manifests as a couple pips rise in USD/JPY.

This is because strength in JPY is even GREATER. With both currencies taking inflows only JPY taking MORE creating a net result of USD/JPY falling “lower”.

This may appear counter intuitive as one might imagine “well USD is going higher….this pair should also be going higher right?” WRONG.

Understanding the fundamentals behind this pairs movement can tell you a lot about market’s appetite for risk as “USD will be converted BACK to YEN as U.S equities are sold.

A stronger Yen correlates to “weaker U.S Equities” near 95%.

Something to add to your toolbox if  it’s not already in there.

I’m adding short USD/JPY here at 101.63