EUR/USD – USD And Gold – Alien Knowledge

A simple correlation – the price of commodities and the U.S Dollar.

Gold being priced in USD obviously.

As the “value” of The U.S dollar rises – Gold price goes down. When the value of USD falls….one would expect the inverse in gold. Gold moves higher as USD falls. All good?

So you should find it interesting then, that over the past few days ( since giving the green light to buy gold ) The U.S Dollar has remained strong. Suggesting to myself at least…..that “even with a relatively strong dollar” the price of gold and silver related stocks have not only remained buoyant, but have made some pretty sold gains over the past few days.

I bought IMG at 4.68 a couple days ago –  Now sitting at 5.29 – All the while USD has continued to move higher.

So what gives Kong? How can the value of the U.S Dollar keep rising AS WELL as Gold and related names?

Answer: An intermediate bottom in Gold.

I’m not talking about a nice little dip to buy, or a quick little stock tip to make you a couple extra bucks for beer….I’m talking about a large scale “fundamental shift in money flow” where the big boys are already well in position. Fully prepared for the U.S Dollar to fall – just that couple of steps ahead of you as…….you still see relative strength in USD even while the big money keeps scooping up Gold.

These large-scale “intermediate turns” don’t play out in a single day.

This will be short-lived, and here is why:

The Euro only further confirms the move currently in play as……it’s now very VERY close to bottoming as well.

Currencies don’t lie. You can’t have EUR and USD going up at the same time!

eur_bottoming_at_1-09

eur_bottoming_at_1-09

So the trade at hand is as follows. Long Gold / Silver and the miners NOW…….and short USD ( long EUR ) here in coming days…once this turn shows itself to the masses.

These “big turns” take weeks and even months for the big boys to build positions, so you don’t always see typical correlations playing out “minute to minute”. It’s my firm belief that the entire year of 2016 has essentially had the big money distributing stock to retail investors….while they quietly and patiently unload USD and scoop up Gold.

Make no mistake. It’s “Dollar Short Time” again here soon, with large gains planned in EUR longs, and a solid investment in Gold.

You think it’s backwards. You don’t think it makes sense but…….haven’t you been reading / lurking here long enough to know better by now? Once you throw currencies into your watch lists, and basket of tools to draw from…you can see things much clearer.

Big moves coming post election.

 

Timed To Perfection – USD Gets Cooked

I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.

Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.

dollar-on-fire

dollar-on-fire

The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.

Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.

Boom……. thar she be.

 

 

 

 

The Wait Is Over – USD Rejected at 200 SMA

As I am always a touch early……..short USD trades are looking very good here.

One can see that The Buck has had it´s day, and has now been soundly rejected at the 200 SMA.

You guys can look back and recall short trades in Apple – with the exact same set up. Very straight forward…when an asset hits the 200SMA from below, then gets smoked. A very large level of resistance, and generally a pretty clear indication that things will be headed lower.

USD Rejected at the 200 Simple Moving Average

USD-lower-Aug-1

USD-lower-Aug-1

You can look for a million different reasons, but fact remains that a rise in interest rates will blow this market up, and that if anything….further easing will likely make more sense, and that´s bad for USD.

You have to keep in mind that the big boys are ¨spinning the story¨ not sheepishly following along! Long positions by the big boys have already been sold to you, as the common man ¨reactes¨ to the trickle of silly news stories aimed at keeping you on the wrong side of the trade.

You falling for this shit? Grab a backbone. Get informed. Remember the days when The U.S Federal Reserve was printing like mad, and crushing the currency with hopes to boost exports and the economy?

How did that go?

Back On The Big Short – The U.S Dollar

Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….

So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.

I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).

While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The two are now almost at par.

Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?

That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.

The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.

I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.

Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.

USD Reaches Tipping Point – Wake Up!

You can remain focused on the “distractions” as Greece continues to take the headlines, or you can pull your head out of the sand and wake the f%k up.

USD is “make it or beak it here” so trades are locked and loaded….but I don’t pull triggers on Fridays.

Snippet from the members section:

We’d really be picking bottoms here as it’s “still” too early .

BUT.

Looking at a 5 minute chart of GBP/USD you’ll want to “at the bare minimum” see the 5 minute chart CLEARLY TRENDING UPWARD so….pull out to see att least a full 5-7 days of trading and plot the 200SMA to start.

You’ll want to see this turn “upward” regardless of the actual price level before entering.

Sure the level looks great “now” but from a safety perspective – let it start making “higher highs and higher lows” on this tiny time frame to even consider entry.

As it stands…the 5 min has yet to turn upward so…..consider how small / micro we are looking now.

I would rather see the 15 min “as well” th 1H trending higher before entry but…..we are getting very close to a point where “legging in” makes sense.

This can be reflected/applied against any USD related pair here, as we “hang” on the cusp of trend change.

Imagine hitting it on a 15 min time frame as still being “sooooo early” right?

No reason to enter here before the weekend. We’ll miss nothing.

 

Are you trading forex yet? Or are you getting completely smashed trying?

I figured.

Daily Forex Strategy – May 21, 2015

This is a quick look at where I’m looking for my next trade entry.

This scenario suggests that USD has not yet found its intermediate term low, and that we’ll see another substantial leg down “first”.

USD_May_21_Forex_Kong

USD_May_21_Forex_Kong

On the flip-side USD breaks upward, breaking though the 50 SMA ( now clearly pointing lower ) and heads for the highs..only to stall out there and spend “eternity” flopping around at similar levels.

You’ll have to appreciate that all the fuss about Eur/Usd is just more “retail propaganda” manufactured by the financial / foreign exchange industry to have you trading the pair “thinking” you’ve got an edge or an advantage. These are the planets two most widely held “reserve currencies” and will always “flip and flop” based on simple market mechanics.

Pull a monthly chart of EUR/USD and realize the pair can trade in as wide a range as .40 cents! Without a single “meaningful repercussion” to either economy. There is no “fundamental reasons” to track the pair…..and I rarely trade it.

Retail flock to it….as the media would have you. Silly.

If USD turns “on cue” you’ll have to expect U.S Equities to do the same…. but then again….I’ve been saying that for a looooooong time now.

The “range grind” continues.

 

Markets Set To Roll Over – All Things Say Yes

We are very close here folks.

Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.

There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.

Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.

The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade. These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.

They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.

The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.

The real-time trades in currencies, gold and silver as well U.S Equities, weekly reporting and daily commentary  can be found at the members site: Forex Trading With Kong.

Citi Sells All USD Positions – No Really?

Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).

Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”

I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.

I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?

Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.

Little chance of that.

Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.

No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.

More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong

 

 

 

Forex Markets Come Alive – USD Wash Out

Wow.

A very large “gap up” here in the wee hours Sunday night before markets really kick off, and the U.S Dollar continues to surge higher against the E.U currencies.

One can’t imagine a single USD bear left on the planet.

Exactly as it should be…. before the thing tanks.

It’s amazing to me how public perception continues to view USD’s recent surge as “some indication” of a stronger U.S Economy.

How on Earth can The U.S Governement ( as well the crooks at The Fed – a private held bank ) handle the enormous contribution to the “serviceable debt load” ( remember The U.S is “officially broke”, with a continued rise in the “allowable debt ceiling” now just a given ) brought about by a stronger U.S Dollar?

It’s impossible. The Fed mandate is to “kill USD” at whatever costs, as to keep these balls in the air as long as they possibly can.

A strong U.S Dollar “kills” the U.S economy! As exports tank, and the amount/value of outstanding sovereign debt balloons “past” the balloon we already know to be.

Find me an “economist” who can make the arguement that “a strong U.S Dollar is good for America” and I’ll eat my hat.

A strong U.S Dollar represents everything the U.S Gov and The Federal Reserve fear most so….I encourage you to start looking for signs of reversal – as opposed to getting to excited.

 

 

4 More Days – USD Toast Or Treasure?

If you can believe it – the U.S Dollar has spent the entire last week “still hovering” near a well-known area of support, showing absolutely no interest in “getting off its ass” and making a move higher.

As forex markets have a tendency to move sideways for extended periods of time, this should come as no real surprise but in having held a number of small positions ( almost averaged out now ) “long USD” for some time now, I’m only giving it a couple more days before just “going with my gut” and likely pulling a “stop n reverse” – getting back on the short side of this dud.

The overall weakness and lack of any real “life” suggests ( as I’ve now suggested for some days ) that regardless of any “near term pop” – USD looks pretty much set on breaking support and continuing on its merry way – into the basement.

Considering the lack of movement ( in either direction ) scratching a trade that has consumed nearly two full weeks of trading doesn’t put a smile on my face. Not at all. If you consider the time and effort, and in turn the “lack of reward” you can easily see why we call this “work”.

I’ll give this dud a couple more days to “prove itself” but as it stands…..I’m a hair away from flat-out “stop and reverse”, wherein the probability of an actual “waterfall” exists.

It’s make it or break it time for USD. 4 days Max.

Forex_Kong_Face_Book

Forex_Kong_Face_Book