I’ve been patiently awaiting the bottom in Silver, and the correlated “top” in the U.S Dollar.
We have now arrived.
The same principle in markets playing out time and time again…..commodities priced in USD fall, as the “perceived value” of the U.S Dollar rises. This “inverse correlation” will now flip – with commodities ( silver / oil ) moving decidely higher, while my ol buddy the U.S Dollar get’s back on it’s way to the basement.
You just can’t have both folks. The recent “strength” in USD coupled with the massive blow to U.S companies exporting to China is most certainly not good for markets. Remember??? Forex?
The U.S ( and every other country for that matter ) wants / “needs a weak domestic currency” in order to compete / promote sales abroad.
Here’s how the two charts look:
U.S Dollar Top
Take note of today’s candle formation = top top top.
I’m looking at a couple super cheap silver mining stocks in order to take advantage as…for the most part the sector moves as a whole. Endeavour Silver Corp ( EDR ) looking like a great way to go as it’s only 2.37 cents.
Don’t get me started about China and the trade war – this is serious shit. Markets no likey.
Haven’t you noticed? It’s not a silly headline and it’s not “that stupid Trump”. It’s serious shit gang.
The U.S Dollar has now confirmed what I’ve been suggesting for literally “years”.
The latest fall has USD generating “yet another” failed daily cycle, confirming that the United States Dollar is headed for the basement. Cryptocurrencies have now taken centre stage, along side The Euro, as the second most widely held reserve currency on the planet.
The U.S Dollar will be sold “even more aggressively” than in recent weeks / months and the trade is now “more than safe” to enter.
You get short USD – NOW…..and you stay that way until mid October. This is major, major, major serious news but not likely front and centre on your local news ( In the United States I wonder if it will be mentioned at all!) as you know my thoughts about that. We’ve only got one small support zone left to break, and it’s literally…..a loooooong way down after that.
USD – Bear Market Begins
Gold, Cryptocurrencies ( such as Bitcoin ) and The Euro will explode higher, as USD takes a serious nose dive over coming weeks. I’m even considering a target as low as the 85 area by mid October when “once again” the U.S Debt Ceiling is reached…then extended – as always!
We’ll get into specific trades here starting Monday, but in all…….( and I rarely say this in trading Forex ) this is going to be easy money / a very straight forward trade.
Get short USD now…..get long Gold, The EURO and most any cryptocurrency you can manage – then we’ll see how you feel come mid October.
Think about buying yourself some “weed” for more than a few reasons in wake of this USD Bear Market…now confirmed.
I am heavily immersed in the Canadian Marijuana biz ( more on that later ) and am currently spouting off everything I know – “and will know” as Canada moves towards federal legalization spring of 2018. Hit the newsletter sign up – you won’t be disappointed.
See the green area on RSI – How long it’s been overbought? See the distance DOWN to the red line ( 200 Moving Average ) See the “rolling hills” of the MACD ( useless indicator anyway ) as price on the chart is so much higher…yet the near term “rolling hill” so much lower than the previous. Divergence baby – Huge divergence.
Even a correction down to the 50 MA will wipe any and all profits that anyone “envisions” prior to actually realizing them – and pushing the sell button.
This is the blow off top. How long she goes? Who cares! Just be sure to get out alive.
The U.S Dollar has now breached the low from the previous daily cycle….confirming that this “next cycle” will also manifest as a “left translated cycle” and take the dollar decidedly lower.
But first we bounce.
We bounce higher in a confirmed downtrend so…you don’t go buying this dip in USD bonehead. You wait 4-6 days ( 6 at most I imagine ) and “sell the rip” as we are in a downtrend. Patience is everything when trading, as you’ve got to fight that “urge” to get in there…and be involved every minute of the day.
I can honestly say that these days ( having long since been through the emotional torment experienced when learning ) I spent more like 85% of my time plotting / scheming / observing markets than I do “actually trading”.
Magically…..the less I trade – the more money I make…but don’t confuse this with “investing”. Yes I believe that gold and silver have bottomed, the Euro will rise and USD will fall…JPY will surge and U.S equities will soon take a substantial hit so….
Investing is 100% totally / absolutely / without question OUT! I trade…..and I trade assets I believe to be in longer term trends. I don’t consider it investing.
Most of the standard correlations are looking pretty good right now ie…USD down has The Euro and commodities ( priced in USD ) moving higher…and The Japanese Yen flying cuz money borrowed some years ago is now repatriating to the place of its origin. Yen up = U.S equities down.
The fact that this thing has traded sideways for this long must have many of you looking at your portfolios and wondering – why haven’t I done so well this past year?
How much “higher” can you really expect anything to climb in the face of a dramatically waning “appetite for risk”.
The planet is completely freaked out about Trump. Good or bad….I have no opinion, but I can tell you this….markets hate uncertainty, and the future looks “more than uncertain” to say the least.
Canada has recently released it’s plan to formally legalize the sale of Marijuana. The Marijuana related stocks have already taken off, but there are literally “opportunities abound” here in coming months. I strongly recommend that you start doing some company research NOW as these things are set for “stellar growth” through 2017.
Canopy Growth Corp being the largest player in the sector.
These companies ( and stocks ) are currently on fire, with the initial rush now over….providing a fantastic pullback and entry opportunity coming here soon.
Start getting a watch list together / ask me for further suggestions as these things should shoot for the moon as Canada finalizes it’s plan.
The spot price of Silver is now reaching an area of considerable support.
The near term “five month fall” from 19.50 – some 20% drop…now looking like a great place to start thinking about buying.
Start “thinking about buying” – not taking out a second mortgage and going all in (this would be ridiculous) as you can’t really argue with the chart. If you’ve been patiently waiting (as I have ) to see the precious metals not only bottom….but actually start moving higher….you can’t argue with the chart.
Maybe 15 bucks is the low, who can say for certain but the “area of price” is starting to look attractive for longer term buy and hold on Silver.
It’s boring I know. ” Hey guys I just picked up some silver, and it hasn’t moved in price forever!” – Nice work Kong. You really rocked that silver trade.
Gimme a break………
Take it for what it is….as you’re too lazy to pull the chart yourselves, just sitting and waiting for your broker to call you. Stick it. He’s too busy counting his commissions.
Spot Silver opportunity – something to be aware of.
The currency pair USD/JPY ( U.S Dollar vs Japanese Yen ) is a bellwether for “risk appetite” in markets. Simply put, when the currency pair rises…..risk is ON. When the currency pair falls – RISK OFF.
Risk ON meaning……the general investing community is in “buy mode”. Risk OFF meaning – “sell mode”.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart.
I’ll let you be the judge….as “per always” – you can lead a horse to water – but you can’t make’em drink.
This chart looks terrible. After months of consolidation( June, July, August, September ) and now with the recent run up into “and after” the U.S election, USD/JPY finds itself at an interesting junction. You don’t see this in equity/stock markets as they only give you a tiny glint into the real world economy ( if any insight at all, considering the money printing and Wall St. corruption ) but…..currencies don’t lie.
USD/JPY will very soon turn. Global stock markets soon to follow so I challenge you to consider….
Are your assets currently protected? Stop losses? Mental stop losses? Greed got you by the balls? Any notion “what so ever” that…..tides may turn?
I’ve softened over these past years as….the Central Banks have made it impossible for the average “at home investor” to even consider things moving lower. I’ve “sung to the choir” at least a handful of times over the past years…encouraging my followers to exercise caution. I’ve been right at times….and horribly wrong at times.
The EUR and The U.S Dollar are simply the two most widely held currencies on the planet. This being said….you can usually generalize that weakness in one suggests strength in the other ¨regardless¨ of the news. Seriously…….all news aside you can generally just look at EUR and USD as ïnterchangeable¨ – trading nearly 100% correlated. Tit for tat.
So……..with further consideration that USD has now reached a major inflection point ( and is headed decidedly lower ) we can also assume that EUR is set to bottom. Fair assumption?
Now you start looking at EUR pairs specifically and ask yourself……which currencies will I see the largest moves in against EUR?? Well…….we can also assume that commodity related currencies take a hit when risk appetite subsides right? Currencies like AUD and NZD ( Australian and New Zealand ) generally fall when risk appetite wains so……long EUR and short AUD?
I’m watching exotic pairs such as EUR/AUD ( which also falls into my ¨faceripper¨ category, being that this thing is extremely volatile, and ready to blow up in your face at any moment ). You can’t trade this thing…..but you can sit on the sidelines and observe.
I´m watching this pair as of today…..not trading it – YET!
Facerippers are nuts. These currency pairs will clean out your account without a moments notice so please – do not try this at home! Watch this pair……watch for the coorelation to ¨risk on vs risk off¨.
You know it’s funny…..human beings have become so lazy these days…so passive so….sedentary – they really just want to be told whats what. What’s going to happen. What to think. What to do.
Just lay it out for me in a couple of bold headlines and perhaps a small snippet of information please ( as anything more would simply be “just too much”. ) No need to get into any “great detail” – just tell me what to do so I cam make lots of money, and most importantly…think about very little.
Don’t raise any controversy, don’t rock the boat…don’t make me “question anything”. I only want sound, actionable information….and it MUST make me money while I do “as close to nothing” as humanly possible.
This is what is going to happen to the U.S Dollar, and this is what I am doing about it.
So there it is.
About as straight up / straight forward as it gets these days….right down to the levels, and the days. Is This gonna work for you, or would you also prefer that I push the buy and sell buttons for you too?
The last little “spike” in USD offers is yet another fantastic opportunity to “sell the rips” not “buy the dips” as we are in a very solid and confirmed daily downtrend.
USD Trend is down – the trade is short. This is a rip t be sold.
These days it makes little sense contemplating every single “little move” in any number of currencies, as forex markets are more or less flat / stagnant. Sure the Brexit did it’s thing and the pound (GBP) got hammered, and sure the Japanese Yen (JPY ) has been on a tear since big banks and large-scale traders have clearly been ditching their Carry Trades – in preparation for a larger scale fall in risk assets ( likely to follow post U.S Election ).
So what’s a trader to do?
Many have been suggesting that the long-term “double top” in Tech stocks / Nasdaq could very well be what markets are shooting for, prior to pulling back….and it looks like we are just about there.
What might throw a number of you for a loop, will be to keep a close eye on USD as U.S Equities pullback.
Traditional thinking would have the U.S Dollar rise ( as U.S Equities are sold and “cash is then raised” ) but we’re not much for traditional thinking ’round these parts. Nothing has changed with respect to the longer term idea that USD is set for a much larger fall.
I would take a very serious look at “any currency” Vs JPY on the smallest indication that “risk aversion” rears its ugly head as…..money is gonna pour back into the primary funding currency of this charade ( that being Japanese Yen ).