Dollar Top – Tomorrow On Follow

One can only wonder how “positive for markets” a 7.5 Earthquake off the coast of Fukushima will be ( no sarcasm there )

Regardless…..USD topping out for the long plunge over the next several weeks.

I’m jumpin on board here shortly, and will likely get picked up sub 99.00 with tonnes of room for lower.

 

usd_topping_out

usd_topping_out

I like the short side, as people freak out and movements are so much bigger.

Steady as she goes…..

 

EUR/USD – USD And Gold – Alien Knowledge

A simple correlation – the price of commodities and the U.S Dollar.

Gold being priced in USD obviously.

As the “value” of The U.S dollar rises – Gold price goes down. When the value of USD falls….one would expect the inverse in gold. Gold moves higher as USD falls. All good?

So you should find it interesting then, that over the past few days ( since giving the green light to buy gold ) The U.S Dollar has remained strong. Suggesting to myself at least…..that “even with a relatively strong dollar” the price of gold and silver related stocks have not only remained buoyant, but have made some pretty sold gains over the past few days.

I bought IMG at 4.68 a couple days ago –  Now sitting at 5.29 – All the while USD has continued to move higher.

So what gives Kong? How can the value of the U.S Dollar keep rising AS WELL as Gold and related names?

Answer: An intermediate bottom in Gold.

I’m not talking about a nice little dip to buy, or a quick little stock tip to make you a couple extra bucks for beer….I’m talking about a large scale “fundamental shift in money flow” where the big boys are already well in position. Fully prepared for the U.S Dollar to fall – just that couple of steps ahead of you as…….you still see relative strength in USD even while the big money keeps scooping up Gold.

These large-scale “intermediate turns” don’t play out in a single day.

This will be short-lived, and here is why:

The Euro only further confirms the move currently in play as……it’s now very VERY close to bottoming as well.

Currencies don’t lie. You can’t have EUR and USD going up at the same time!

eur_bottoming_at_1-09

eur_bottoming_at_1-09

So the trade at hand is as follows. Long Gold / Silver and the miners NOW…….and short USD ( long EUR ) here in coming days…once this turn shows itself to the masses.

These “big turns” take weeks and even months for the big boys to build positions, so you don’t always see typical correlations playing out “minute to minute”. It’s my firm belief that the entire year of 2016 has essentially had the big money distributing stock to retail investors….while they quietly and patiently unload USD and scoop up Gold.

Make no mistake. It’s “Dollar Short Time” again here soon, with large gains planned in EUR longs, and a solid investment in Gold.

You think it’s backwards. You don’t think it makes sense but…….haven’t you been reading / lurking here long enough to know better by now? Once you throw currencies into your watch lists, and basket of tools to draw from…you can see things much clearer.

Big moves coming post election.

 

Timed To Perfection – USD Gets Cooked

I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.

Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.

dollar-on-fire

dollar-on-fire

The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.

Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.

Boom……. thar she be.

 

 

 

 

The Wait Is Over – USD Rejected at 200 SMA

As I am always a touch early……..short USD trades are looking very good here.

One can see that The Buck has had it´s day, and has now been soundly rejected at the 200 SMA.

You guys can look back and recall short trades in Apple – with the exact same set up. Very straight forward…when an asset hits the 200SMA from below, then gets smoked. A very large level of resistance, and generally a pretty clear indication that things will be headed lower.

USD Rejected at the 200 Simple Moving Average

USD-lower-Aug-1

USD-lower-Aug-1

You can look for a million different reasons, but fact remains that a rise in interest rates will blow this market up, and that if anything….further easing will likely make more sense, and that´s bad for USD.

You have to keep in mind that the big boys are ¨spinning the story¨ not sheepishly following along! Long positions by the big boys have already been sold to you, as the common man ¨reactes¨ to the trickle of silly news stories aimed at keeping you on the wrong side of the trade.

You falling for this shit? Grab a backbone. Get informed. Remember the days when The U.S Federal Reserve was printing like mad, and crushing the currency with hopes to boost exports and the economy?

How did that go?

Back On The Big Short – The U.S Dollar

Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….

So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.

I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).

While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The two are now almost at par.

Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?

That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.

The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.

I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.

Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.

Earth Sells Off Hard – Lower Lows To Follow

With over a month of inactivity short of holding the same positions, the same strategy as outlined here countless numbers of times – our old friend The U.S Dollar has done us proud.

The “dumb buck” has lost some 1000 pips v.s the Japanese Yen since markets topped some months ago, and has made an equally bad showing against the majority of its rivals.

This has only just begun.

You may recall chatter some months ago about China and a number of other countries moving away from use of The Dollar in international trade, and recent news suggests that now Iran ( with sanctions being lifted ) is looking to sell its oil in Euro only.

Unfortunately you just can’t have it both ways.

Things will only spiral further down the drain when U.S interest rates go negative ( where essentially they are already if you consider inflation ) and The Fed looks to launch QE5.

All those worthless dollars already printed…..and a shit pile more coming soon – to an unemployment office near you. This is no time to be disappointed or upset! Rejoice in your new-found knowledge that the entire “economic recovery” has been a complete and total sham, and be glad you made the realization early enough to survive.

Have you survived? I hope so.

And it’s really not too late…unless of course you are still of the mindset that “The Central Banks” have got your back well then…….one would think you’d of learned your lesson over the past month er so.

Earth is selling off hard. There isn’t a damn thing “they” or “anyone” can do about it.

Global stock markets are literally “tanking daily” and in my view things are just getting started.

From a technical perspective we’ve only just “shaved the top” off this mountain off bullshit, now with The SP 500 still hanging around the neckline area of support – but that won’t last much longer.

New lows…..then even “lower lows” to follow as The U.S Dollar plummets, Japanese Yen come flooding back to the country where they were printed, Euro and GBP remain elevated and the commodity related “currencies” trade flat.

A low in oil at some point ( correlating with the dump in USD ) won’t mean the markets will recover…not in the slightest as oil will then just bounce along said bottom for eternity. No immediate opportunities there.

People are flat busted, food prices are “out of this world” and global economic data is quickly turning from bad to horrific. This is not a blip. This is not a “correction”. This is not a drill.

This is 2016 baby….and it will be one for the books.

 

Dollar_No_More

Dollar_No_More

Dollar No More – A Global Perspective

I took this graphic from “somewhere” as it’s a great visual representation of what is “really going on” with the U.S Dollar and international trade.

Dollar_No_More

Dollar_No_More

Don’t be a dope. If the arrows and numbers where pointed in the “other direction” then perhaps you could build a case. The numbers speak for themselves. The U.S “strangle hold” on the world’s reserve, and in turn “slice of the pie” generated via currency exchange ( in order to buy commodities ) is over.

 

Markets Set To Roll Over – All Things Say Yes

We are very close here folks.

Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.

There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.

Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.

The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade. These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.

They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.

The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.

The real-time trades in currencies, gold and silver as well U.S Equities, weekly reporting and daily commentary  can be found at the members site: Forex Trading With Kong.

Citi Sells All USD Positions – No Really?

Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).

Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”

I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.

I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?

Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.

Little chance of that.

Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.

No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.

More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong