When you zoom out and trade as “deep and wide” as I do……you don’t let the small squiggles get in the road of your larger “macro economic view”.
Mind you…..On occasion I love to get down in to the trenches as well…( short-term trading an hourly chart – something I call fun! ) but rarely as…..the short term trend works best when matched up with both the medium and the long.
In this case – Short U.S Dollar / Long Bitcoin.
Teetering on the edge….the precipice as it where. U.S D ( as suggested ) looking to fall off a cliff.
Little to add on a slow Wednesday, short of Thursday ( generally seen as a “news day” ) on deck – and likely larger moves in markets.
It’s still just early September.
The big boys / overall trading volume still quite low……I don’t expect “fireworks” for another week er so, when the USD slide becomes something “discussed” in the main stream media.
Keep in mind…..a weak dollar benefits Trump’s general plan / The Fed’s overall plan, and the only way forward for the incredible “recovery in the U.S”.
REPOST: Anyone considering having another look at this?? Markets DOWN = Bitcoin UP!
I harken back to the “good old days” trading forex when…..I’d get up at the crack of dawn ( now’a days even earlier ) pull up my charts and trade journal, review the dailies/weeklies, check the “news calendar” and get set for another day out on the playing field.
Glorious times. Truly glorious times. Times I will always associate with incredible freedom, excitement, and the ever satisfying / rewarding experience of being able to share my thoughts and experiences with you the readers as……….pulling apart and exposing the underbelly of financial markets (for those who perhaps needed a little “extra help”) was not only extremely gratifying – but somewhat of a passion.
Coming full circle, as things more often than not do……..I’m here yet again, and oddly…..faced with similar circumstances / similar variables in an ever-changing financial eco system.
Oh yes……you know it. I’m talking about ( not only Bitcoin ) but “once again” – I’m talking about the good ol American Dollar.
The U.S Dollar is now headed “DECIDEDLY LOWER”.
And……if any of you have learned “anything” here over the years – What happens to assets “priced in U.S.D” when the dollar falls?? Yes! You’ve got it….assets such as gold and Bitcoin will rise as you need MORE DOLLARS to by them!
This is a monthly chart of USD:
USD To Fall Big Time
You see the dark black line? Give or take a day / week ……give or take a few points higher ( who gives a shit ) this marks the serious “top of tops” in USD and a massive turning point in markets.
Guess which markets? Ya……Gold and commods sure…but perhaps more interestingly (and now in context) you may finally understand my recent “forray” into Crypto.
“As The U.S Dollar Falls – Both Gold And Bitcoin Will Rise in Tandem.”
It’s Forex 2.0 folks – just a tad more “futuristic”.
Quick charts on Bitcoin and likely Gold bottoms:
Bitcoin Bottom Around 6400.00
See the dark black line = bottom area.
Gold Bottom Around 1200.00
This isn’t a trade people…..this is a fundamental. Put it in your pocket as you continue to “question” the validity of crypto while “right in front of your faces” you’ll be watching the further depreciation of your “fiat / paper bullshit” along with it your purchasing power and more importantly – your freedom.
Gary Savage Now Confirmed – The Dumbest Person On Earth
Have any of you heard of BAKKT?
You know the new cryptocurrency platform launching in January..you know – THE ONE OWNED AND OPERATED BY ICE – THE OWNERS OF THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE!?
Good lord….WHO DOESN”T KNOW ABOUT IT? Lol.
Oh ya……this guy Gary Savage. Now confirmed as literally….the dumbest trader / investor on Earth. This clown is suggesting to his few remaining followers that Bitcoin…yes bitcoin – is going to zero.
Boy oh boy…..I guess those fellows over there at The NYSC have really got this wrong hey man? Millions and millions of dollars invested, a platform where institutional investors and retailers alike will soon be buying and selling crypto on a massive global scale. Damn! – They are even talking about allowing crypto into Americans 401K plans!
Alas…Gary Savage The Dumbest Money Tracker must have some kind of inside scoop / secret knowledge as compared to the investors / creators of BAKKT. Also including support from both Microsoft and Starbucks. Point of sale terminals will roll out shortly after launch, retail investor “mass adoption” so clearly on the horizon and this guy crawls out from under his rock to suggest BTC is going to zero.
The Crypto market “wash out” is so blatantly a means for institutional investors ( not armchair retail clowns like this Gary Savage ) to buy as low as humanly possible before “BILLIONS” in retail and further instititutinal inverstment come flooding into the market.
You are a total moron guy….your followers will now miss the most significant change “and opportunity” of the last 100 years. Crawl back under a rock and watch the world pass you by….no wait – It clearly already has!
Bitcoin popped down and retested 6400 area = DONE.
A blurb I ripped from some young punk / crypto trader who sounds like he’s equally been reading a little too much Kong.
Don’t Be A Crypto ‘Weak-Hand’, It’s What They Want…
The whole Crypto investor market is currently massively over-reacting to this SEC ETF delay and in general, losing their shit right now.
I’ve said for over a year now that in order for the proper ‘mooning’ to begin, a few jigsaw pieces need to be placed:
1.) Wallstreet (my general term for banks and institutional whales) need to get involved and that the major banks will start to buy out Crypto exchanges so that they have data/information feeds. DONE
2.) Before Wallstreet enter a new market like this, just like many commodity markets in the past, first they will create a Futures market. This way they can manipulate and suppress prices of Cryptos without owning any Cryptos as they can Naked Short the market. DONE
3.) Wallstreet will need custodial services because they really won’t want to mess about with wallets and private keys and the risk of being hacked. So they will want to store it somewhere fully insured. DONE
4.) Wallstreet will then bring about the first Bitcoin ETF so that hedge funds can play with the crypto space without actually buying any cryptos. ALMOST DONE.
The thing to remember here is that when a Bitcoin ETF is finally passed, that ETF company will have to actually go out and buy billions of Dollars worth of Bitcoin. And store it somewhere. And these boys won’t just buy it at market price. They will drive the price down so they get more Bitcoin for their buck. And then they will store it (fully insured) at a ‘Crypto Bank’ with custodial services. That’s what Coinbase is to Wallstreet. A retail exchange for the average Joe and a ‘Crypto Bank’ for the Whales.
So I’m not surprised at all we are having a last minute tree shake as they are just trying to scare away all the ‘weak hands’. I.e. Those currently pulling their hair out, checking coinmarketcap every 10 minutes and questioning whether Cryptos will ever get back to all time highs. DON’T BE A WEAK HAND.
These big boys control the media message and flow and being sucker-punched into selling your Cryptos is exactly what they want.
All of the pieces are almost in place now for the next fractal surge up. The second the Bitcoin ETF is approved I bet my bottom NEO that the ETH ETF won’t be far behind. And then the options market won’t be far behind that. That will attract more traders. Then the derivatives floodgates won’t be far behind and then there will be LEVERAGE! After a couple years of easy public accessible LEVERAGE, that is when you need to start worrying about getting out of Cryptos. By then your pension fund will no doubt have a small Crypto allocation.
With a property you have leverage and can buy a house 10 times more than you can afford. With equities you can buy and sell 2-5 times more stock than you can afford. Right now, the public cannot easily amplify their holdings. This is a MAJOR reason why we are NO WHERE NEAR PEAK BUBBLE.
In 2007 the average stripper in Florida owned 7 apartments. That’s how silly leverage got in the housing market. Right now I doubt even 1% of strippers own any Cryptos. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fully aware that most participants in this market right now are in pain. Many are probably 60-90% down on their portfolios and the strategy of HODLing isn’t sitting too well with the more impatient speculators.
I also know many people who made 6 figures profit in 2017 and are now only sitting on 4 or 5 figures profit. Hell, I traded my $25k portfolio up from $25k to $1m in a 4 month period. I took a couple hundred grand off the table to divest back into my businesses to create some real cashflowing income streams, so sat here right now it’s looking vastly diminished in the low 6 figures. BUT through exiting the market for most of the Bitcoin crash and dancing in and out a few times, I’ve actually got over double the amount of tokens than I originally had. Even though I extracted some profits. Regardless, there’s lots of soured & bitter people around right now.
Many are blaming others, but ultimately, as an Investor, YOU are responsible for your portfolio. Many jumped in with way more than Risk Capital. Some have left the market completely, which is a good thing in my opinion. The get-rich-quick ‘WHEN MOONers?’ aren’t good for this market.
They repel the more level-headed investors which in turn slightly extends the time it takes for this industry to go mainstream. Most of them are investors who have never invested before and Cryptos are their very first investment. Which is why so many people are being duped into the most basic of scams like One Coin, Das Coin, Bitconnect and USI Tech. So it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster for them. They got caught up in the hype of ‘Bitcoin to $1m in 1 or 2 years time’ and now it’s free-falling past $7000. This is actually the BEST investing lesson they will ever learn. IF they heed and learn from this…
So if you’re in Cryptos you NEEEEEED to be in for the RIGHT reasons:
1.)You’re in for the short/medium term (until the proper bubble pop) when the public come rushing in en masse. This won’t happen until the ‘Early Majority’ (of the Adoption cycle) comes in, Cryptos are as easy as online banking, there is an established naming service just like websites have URLs AND there is LEVERAGE so your waster mate Dave down the pub can re-mortgage his house and also amplify his Bitcoin holdings.
2.) You’re in Cryptos with no more than RISK CAPITAL. That means you won’t lose your shit or feel suicidal whenever the market does its annual 30-70% drawdown.
3.) You’re INFORMED! You know it’s going to be an extremely erratic market for at least the next 10 years and that there will be an endless string of scandals, events and sensationalised news announcements.
4.) You’re aware that this is a short term highly speculative bubble which will most likely pop at some point. So you’re playing the Greater Fools game here and then the long term BUY, HOLD and NEVER sell game once this market matures. Just like hoovering up the Blue Chip stocks that were still operational after the Tech Bubble fallout. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and IBM etc.
5.) By being informed you can retain THE BIGGER PICTURE. Which is all of the above, and that whether you got into BTC at $19k or $10k, will be relatively insignificant compared to the sheer potential Bitcoin and the rest of the market could grow to. Amazon is now $1900 per share. I’m pretty sure you’d be happy if you bought in at $20 or $50 per share. Hell, even $200 is cheap.
I’m going to give you something valuable here today – considering how rarely I post these days.
The infrequency of posts here at Kong can “always be correlated” to the “amount of money I’m making”.
Let me explain……
Everything is cyclical. Everything. You live you die…..you reshape/transform – then giver another go. Humans are cyclical thusly……markets are cyclical. Ah yes… the markets……what better way to watch human beings in “real-time” making the simple decisions of the day. Buy….I sell….I hold…..all there, each and every day in the form of a simple candle stick stock chart. Data. Humans making decisions.
The Cryptocurrency markets are currently working on a 52 day cycle. Today / tomorrow will represent the current “bottom” of the previous cycle…and the “beginning” of a new daily cycle.
Here’s a weekly chart ( NOTE! We did not break the low of early April )
Now zoom into the daily chart and start counting since the previous low:
I’ve got about 32 days UP……then a full 20 er so days DOWN. But still….A HIGHER LOW!
So……if you’re smart – you buy today……and if you fancy yourself a “trader” well…….you start looking to book profits approx 30 trading days from now.
Me? I’m so deep into crypto / in the money – I may very well be one of those that never sells…short of needing a lil’ cash for beers and the odd fishing trip. All good here.
It’s been a real tricky one here folks. The pullback…..the volatility in general but….
For those of you with dry powder, the daily cycle has now most certainly confirmed a “new daily cycle” ( as of Wednesday ) so…..I’d be a buyer here this morning – seeing markets down pre-market could be a nice little opportunity.
Don’t let the jobs data phase you. It’s the same bullshit / phoney baloney U.S economic recovery we’ve been hearing about for what – years now? Don’t let the data get in your way – just buy stocks here “again” and keep a watchful eye on the highs.
You as a stock trader / investor obviously………looking for some kind of direction / light at the end of the tunnel / idea of the future / means to make a decision. Fair enough.
As suggested earlier – the volatility ( in my view ) certainly indication of something larger…..something looming…something ominous.. something – unknown.
Something you just can’t put your finger on ( or more likely – “are unwilling to do so” ) as “you” as well – see it so clearly.
Something’s not right. You know it. Your gut knows it. I know you know it. You know that I know – you know it. Son of a bitch ‘eh?
cryptos ready to go
Simply put. I see the daily cycle in both stocks as well cryptos as being “extremely stretched” ( some 50 days now ) with thought in mind that……as the algo’s change ( from buy to sell ) the bumps in the road get larger….the time between cycles get wider….”everything” starts pushing you to the limits of your psychological ability to “hang in there” and keep trading / soldiering on.
We will now push to new highs ( or very, very close ) in equities……and cryptos will rebound.
It will be at this point ( near the all time highs in equities ) that I challenge your psychological being once again……
Consider equities topping out at this point ( near new highs / possibly a notch higher ) then some incredible instance where billions fall out of equities markets, only to land on every coin / crypto they possibly can at rock bottom prices.
Sector rotation? Can you consider cryptocurrencies a sector yet? ( 300 billion dollar market cap at present..hmmmm….) Guess it’s just a fad.
You feel as though you’ve only been gone for a second yet…. on return soon realize things have really changed. I mean like………really changed.
It’s been a fairly long time…and I apologize for that. Travelling the cosmos in search of new technologies is an arduous task yet incredibly satisfying when you hit your mark. Unfortunately this time I’ve come back to Earth somewhat empty handed, realizing that for the most part……seemingly…Earth itself is the current “hot bed of activity” with respect to new technologies and advancement.
What do you know eh?…..now if only we could stop killing each other, and perhaps slow the rate of environmental destruction to a crawl – maybe there’s a chance Elon gets a few of his supporters up to Mars before Trump nukes Korea. Bravo Elon….you’re on the right track brotha.
As I said….things have changed quite dramatically since my last visit.
Looking into markets, I continue to invest heavily in cryptocurrencies as ( if you don’t quite get the full picture – totally understandable and not unlike the vast majority of people ) this being the point exactly.
We stand on the cusp of a new era. A new beginning. A fresh start for those a generation behind, where “old money” still struggles with the concept. Totally understandable. It’s wild. It’s nutty……but it “is” the future, and it “will” change the face of our current economic system. There is incredible opportunity here so please….don’t sell yourself short. You can do it. You can learn this. You’ll get it. I promise.
Litecoin. Research it. Bitcoin…will inevitably become a “store of value” much like gold exists in our current paradigm. Understand it. Tron/TRX is a token out of China that I have 100% confidence will provide 100X returns over coming years ( yes I said years ) so throw that on your radar as well. Justin Sun ( Tron’s creator ) is the protegé of Jack Ma ( I bet you know what Alibaba is no? ) so imagine when these guys put a few more deals together. Tron gonna fly.
As for Forex……well. My long-term predictions on the “ultimate demise of the U.S dollar” are obviously coming to fruition. This dog has been tanking now for months ( nailed it / killed it / banked coin ) and to be honest…….I’ve completely lost interest. There is no debate. The U.S Dollar will continue to fall, and with the advent of cryptocurrencies….likely harder / faster than originally suggested.
You can STILL short USD – like……Monday morning.
Stocks are insane…..I’m not touching them with a ten foot laser beam as…..the volatility ( -724 type days ) is a larger indication of the Wall St. machines “slowly” switching the algos to “sell”. Cover your asses….keep profits / hang on to cash and stop considering “this will go up forever” – cuz it won’t. Catch what you can over coming months but…….I’m 100% out of stocks….short of the continued rise in Canadian marijuana companies.
It will take a single headline these days ( Trump impeachment ?? ) to wipe out every single nickel you’ve made over the past year so…….take heed. Party on.