One can only wonder how “positive for markets” a 7.5 Earthquake off the coast of Fukushima will be ( no sarcasm there )
Regardless…..USD topping out for the long plunge over the next several weeks.
I’m jumpin on board here shortly, and will likely get picked up sub 99.00 with tonnes of room for lower.
I like the short side, as people freak out and movements are so much bigger.
Steady as she goes…..
When you see an over night wash out like that……..you take notice.
A full 200 point drop and return to 97.80? Common – hit this thing today.
I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.
Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.
The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.
Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.
Boom……. thar she be.
As I am always a touch early……..short USD trades are looking very good here.
One can see that The Buck has had it´s day, and has now been soundly rejected at the 200 SMA.
You guys can look back and recall short trades in Apple – with the exact same set up. Very straight forward…when an asset hits the 200SMA from below, then gets smoked. A very large level of resistance, and generally a pretty clear indication that things will be headed lower.
USD Rejected at the 200 Simple Moving Average
You can look for a million different reasons, but fact remains that a rise in interest rates will blow this market up, and that if anything….further easing will likely make more sense, and that´s bad for USD.
You have to keep in mind that the big boys are ¨spinning the story¨ not sheepishly following along! Long positions by the big boys have already been sold to you, as the common man ¨reactes¨ to the trickle of silly news stories aimed at keeping you on the wrong side of the trade.
You falling for this shit? Grab a backbone. Get informed. Remember the days when The U.S Federal Reserve was printing like mad, and crushing the currency with hopes to boost exports and the economy?
How did that go?
Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….
So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.
I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).
While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The two are now almost at par.
Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?
That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.
The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.
I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.
Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.
I took this graphic from “somewhere” as it’s a great visual representation of what is “really going on” with the U.S Dollar and international trade.
Don’t be a dope. If the arrows and numbers where pointed in the “other direction” then perhaps you could build a case. The numbers speak for themselves. The U.S “strangle hold” on the world’s reserve, and in turn “slice of the pie” generated via currency exchange ( in order to buy commodities ) is over.
With readership here at Kong now doubling “again” over the past few months – I struggle to understand what “new information” people are looking for.
You do understand that the recent fall in oil prices ( well …actually not so recent considering it’s been falling like a rock since June – down from 110 to now 58 bucks a barrel ) is a blatant and obvious indication that “global growth” and “global demand for oil” is falling off a cliff right?
Seriously…….if you don’t see the connection between “supply and demand” in something this blatant and simple well…….one has to wonder “what you do see” – if anything relevant at all.
Finally something “other than The Fed / mainstream media bullshit” to get you off the couch and start asking yourself?
Could it actually be? You mean all this Kong talk of “global slowdown” over the past months ( despite the ridiculous rise in equity pricing ) is actually for real?
Give your head a shake. The world outside your tiny bubble of plastic wrap and pizza boxes is selling off like hotcakes and you still think Apple looks like a buy here at 110.
Oil related currencies such as The Canadian Dollar as well The Mexican Peso are getting creamed even as The U.S Dollar is falling hard, and The Japanese Yen enters “lift off stage”.
Debate over the next couple weeks and “what ever miniscule points are left” in the general propping up of both Japanese and American markets is a dead mule.
Step back and imagine oil at 30 bucks…perhaps that will get your attention.
We are very close here folks.
Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.
There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.
Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.
The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade. These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.
They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.
The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.
The real-time trades in currencies, gold and silver as well U.S Equities, weekly reporting and daily commentary can be found at the members site: Forex Trading With Kong.
Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).
Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”
I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.
I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?
Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.
Little chance of that.
Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.
No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.
More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong
A very large “gap up” here in the wee hours Sunday night before markets really kick off, and the U.S Dollar continues to surge higher against the E.U currencies.
One can’t imagine a single USD bear left on the planet.
Exactly as it should be…. before the thing tanks.
It’s amazing to me how public perception continues to view USD’s recent surge as “some indication” of a stronger U.S Economy.
How on Earth can The U.S Governement ( as well the crooks at The Fed – a private held bank ) handle the enormous contribution to the “serviceable debt load” ( remember The U.S is “officially broke”, with a continued rise in the “allowable debt ceiling” now just a given ) brought about by a stronger U.S Dollar?
It’s impossible. The Fed mandate is to “kill USD” at whatever costs, as to keep these balls in the air as long as they possibly can.
A strong U.S Dollar “kills” the U.S economy! As exports tank, and the amount/value of outstanding sovereign debt balloons “past” the balloon we already know to be.
Find me an “economist” who can make the arguement that “a strong U.S Dollar is good for America” and I’ll eat my hat.
A strong U.S Dollar represents everything the U.S Gov and The Federal Reserve fear most so….I encourage you to start looking for signs of reversal – as opposed to getting to excited.