How Can Oil Go Any Lower? – It Can’t

It’s absolutely amazing how easy it is, to allow the mainstream media to influence your trading.

We see the headlines, we hear the talking heads go on and on… and a part of us just “defaults” to accepting the daily banter as “the way it is” or……just assuming these people must know right? They’re on T.V. and I’m just sitting here in my trailer.

I also advocate doing as much research as you can and formulating your own investment views, and perhaps even more importantly – sticking to the basics!

So!?

How about the age-old principle of SUPPLY and DEMAND!? Remember that one? It’s a good one!

Let’s take OIL as an example.

Oil Around 45 Bucks = Low

                                                                Oil Around 45 Bucks = Low

You know….oil – the single most important commodity on Earth (or a least to the degree that puny humans have based their entire global economy on it). One would really never have to question it’s “demand” and from what we all are led to believe – the supply shouldn’t really be in question either.

Then factor in global population growth and any number of other horrible / consumer related facts and figures and there you have it.

Long term demand (in today’s day and age) will easily counter this short-term oversupply, as humans will consume this sludge until the last possible drop has been squeezed from this planet.

The support area is very near, so you start doing a bit of research NOW, and keep the price of oil on your daily trades / watch list.

Find a couple decent plays and set the trap.

Let the price come to you.

 

 

Count Your Lucky Stars – Fed To Talk Down Hike

Everyone needs to take this “shot across the bow” and the “survival of said shot” – to count their lucky stars. Talk about complacent eh? Damn! I bet a whole lotta folks just got 100% cleaned out!

I don’t mean YOU….I mean the market, and it’s participants “in general”. Everyone still not willing to accept how “flimsy” and “phony” things truly are. How soon we forget.

lucky_stars

lucky_stars

Gone are the company buy backs…..now the Fed “tightening not loosening” monetary policy, guidance for 2019 all pointing down ( these are the companies you invest in TELLING YOU – we aren’t gonna hit the mark in 2019) and then of course….the “incredibly significant” trade war / tensions building with China.

These stocks don’t exist in a bubble right?

There is nowhere to hid when the “entire planet” (or at least those institutions with large enough positions to affect markets) turn from buy to sell . NOTHING survives.

So hey…..this time around we catch a break.This time.

The Fed meetings get underway tomorrow. This is everything now.

The idea of interest rates climbing higher is the absolute foundation for this sell off. You get it right? You realize how leveraged to the freakin balls these big trading houses  / investment firms / wall st. gangsters are? Another basis point higher, and that nice new house out in the Hampton’s you’ve double mortgaged and now taken additional loans against gonna be the banks soon. You don’t own shit.

So here’s how it goes down.

  1. Fed holds out and doesn’t make the hike = markets are back off to the races for a final shot to the highs. USD tanks / final roll over / another fantastic short entry – post fed. Gold and commods final bottom. Crypto as well.
  2. Fed makes hike ( as it’s already priced in fok……look at the slide ) but TALKs down the next few = markets are back off to the races for a final shot to the highs. USD tanks / final roll over / another fantastic short entry – post fed. Gold and commods final bottom. Crypto as well.

There it is.

You’ve got one more shot at the highs, before May of 2019 and it’s time to get down in your bunker.

Buy water and gas…..buy crypto / silver n gold, and consider moving inland.

There’s more than a little problem up north, and it’s coming a lot sooner than 2030.

 

 

 

 

Dow Weekly Swing Low – Back To The Highs

The completion of this “intermediate cycle” is now within striking distance, after several days of extremely frustrating / volatile trading. Wow – what a shake out.

Now the technicals are “just a hair away” from confirming a “weekly swing low” (when the close of the weekly candle is “higher” than the close of the previous weekly candle).

You see it here? Just a few more points and the swing will be complete.

Dow Weekly Swing Low

Dow Weekly Swing Low

I would also take note of the “screaming double top” There around 26,900. Yo can clearly see rejection back in Jan/Feb as well as here in October.

The average stock today (ok a few days ago) is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation.

There are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today: just before the Great Depression hit and in the 1999 run-up to the dotcom bubble burst.

One would have to ask themselves ‘What possible upside could remain” considering the gong show in evaluations, the bleak earnings we just saw in Q3, the trade war as well both China and Russia dumping BILLIONS of U.S Dollar Debt…..and the results of the mid term elections likely to have “significant impact” if indeed democrats steal back the house or senate.

Since March, Russia has dumped 84% of it’s American debt holdings! 84%! The bond selling has now reached “waterfall levels” with no real signs of support.

The U.S Dollar is set for the next “dumping” here as of today as well.

With the weekly swing low “essentially in” one might expect that stocks shoot for the highs here once again BUT! Mid terms could put a rook in those plans.

Generally speaking……what we will see over the next few weeks will be those retail investors who have “finally gotten off the couch” thinking this time it will be different.

It’s never different.

10 years straight up……..unprecedented. How does 2-4 years down sound? 

Totally normal, as we’ve got 150 years of data to work from.

10 years up? Common…….the “down” is gonna look equally nutty.

 

 

 

2018 Gains Erased – Bitcoin To Surge

OK so………

Let this simply be a lesson to you. You are NOT PREPARED for a market melt down. You are not protecting your gains……you are NOT PREPARED for “this” in any possible sense, as you’ve just seen the entire year of 2018 ERASED in a matter of days.

No judgement here. We are all learning. We are all doing the best we possibly can.

Or are we?

History repeats itself ( or so you’re told ) so Ok….let’s take a quick look at that.

This is the longest BULL RUN ( now going on 10 years ) in THE ENTIRE HISTORY of the stock market. Stop for a second and ponder….the longest bull run EVER, on the heels of the largest money printing experiment in the history of mankind…now 10 years out! This has NEVER HAPPENED before. EVER!

The brainwashing at a maximum as…….when you look in the mirror tonight before bed and you actually consider things are just going to “keep moving higher”?? Madness. This is pure madness, and in my eyes….completely irresponsible.

Impossible.

Did you learn anything the last time around?

If this “shot across the bow” hasn’t been enough to shake you out of your complacent / oxy driven sleep well…….I have little sympathy. This is a blessing for those who care to open their eyes.

THE ALGO’S HAVE SWITCHED FROM BUY TO SELL.

The big boys are essentially already out!!! Bam! Just like that….one years worth of CNBC hype –  your cash now transferred to your broker / bank as you capitulate / sell at the bottom. Indeed…..history repeating itself. THE BIG BOYS ARE ALREADY OUT!

So….what happens next?

Retail buys the dip.

The media swings back into full-blown promo, the numbers keep coming in / data not “too terrible” ( fok…….are you nuts?? Housing will never recover the previous highs, tech “might” push on, transports not going to recover the previous highs etc…..) – The list goes on.

Housing Off A Cliff

Housing Off A Cliff

While you where off golfing in Phoenix. The algo changed. This will NEVER recover as indication quite similar to the fall of 2007-8. Housing hooped and interest rates GOING UP!

So what do I do?

If you have anything left at all ( which for most is likely a big fat “0” ) you do indeed buy this dip……as one of the last runs towards the highs. IF! – The highs are reached again.

Throw greed out the window = you lost. You are now a bag holder. Period.

If lucky…..my suggestion is simply to sell every fokin thing you own prior to May 2019 – IF NOT SOONER as……the profits you saw on paper a month ago are very unlikely to return. THEY WILL NOT RETURN!

So this is not a time of greed……this is not a time for complacency..this is a time for protection / caution / plan for the fall out.

2008 gonna look like a total picnic. Stocks to shed some 50-60% value / market cut in half. Total economic destruction. Why on earth would you hold thru 4 years of that? ONly to find yourself below break even?

I won’t allow it.

Prepare now.

Selling is your goal. Not buying.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Cycle Low – Hang On Another Day

Stocks have almost completed their  “intermediate cycle low” so you “holders of paper” only need to wait another day er two / catch your breath / don’t freak out.

You have grown “so complacent here” that these “few down days” have you on pins and needles, debating whether you should simply just “sell” before you’re left with nothing.

You sell on green candles traders ( some days ago? )…… and you buy on red.

None the less…..we are still very much so in a right translated / daily uptrend in stocks – with this cycle extending to like…..38-40 days? Wow….a long one….but now near completion.

Dow Nears Support

Dow Nears Support

This is still a very strong uptrend – with an “intermediate cycle decline” now near complete. The test of support area ( as seen by the black line ) looking good.

I can only assume the next leg higher starts like……tomorrow.

 

Bitcoin slowly moving up from the proposed low at 6400.00

Gold = flat ( who really cares right? )

USD – Crater on deck – as suggested.

 

Stay SHORT USD – USD Pop ‘n Drop

Daily cycles can vary in length for different assets, but in general The U.S Dollar tends to move in an “18-22 day period” from trough to trough.

The previous daily cycle topped out on day 4 then rolled over for a good solid move lower over a 16 day period.

Today marks the beginning of a new daily cycle now………don’t get excited.

USD Downtrend to Continue

USD Downtrend to Continue

A new daily cycle that will “again fail” early ( if not immediately ) and roll back over for another “crater” into oblivion so……..a new daily cycle in a “bearish downtrend” only providing further opportunity to SHORT. The dark black line showing the resistance zone for USD. She ain’t poppin thru that – no way!

I’m not flinching / moving a muscle as today is a single day’s action that has already run straight into overhead resistance. The U.S Dollar is NOT reversing its downward trajectory here – hell no.

Waterfalls ahead. Stay Short – keep accumulating crypto. You’ll see.

 

 

Comments Anyone? – Kong Back From the Future

I welcome your comments. Trolls and fans alike…….bring it on people. If you’ve got a gripe.

As I had mentioned some time ago, the “infrequency of posts” can be generally correlated to “how well I’m doing in markets” or more so in recent days – my complacency. Admittedly – complacent.

Why so Kong? You’ve always advocated vigilance and planning / observation as key elements to any trade plan. How’d you get so “chill” here these days? The world is crazy! What about Trump? Trump??

Relax.

Kong_Complacent

                                                                                   Kong_Complacent

As much as the American’s have such terrible views of their current sitting President –  have you seen how markets are performing lately? Trump continues to confuse…..but the big boys / highest earners / tax bracket / big business / economic drivers are loving it!

And now another massive depreciation of the U.S Dollar to boot? Anyone in the “financial biz” in complete heaven!

The “short USD trade” now 5 days running……now swung high on a MONTHLY chart = doom / waterfall action in USD coming AGAIN here pronto.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stars Align – U.S.D Crater Begins

When you zoom out and trade as “deep and wide” as I do……you don’t let the small squiggles get in the road of your larger “macro economic view”.

Mind you…..On occasion I love to get down in to the trenches as well…( short-term trading an hourly chart – something I call fun! ) but rarely as…..the short term trend works best when matched up with both the medium and the long.

stars_align_forex_kong

stars_align_forex_kong

In this case – Short U.S Dollar / Long Bitcoin.

Teetering on the edge….the precipice as it where. U.S D ( as suggested ) looking to fall off a cliff.

Little to add on a slow Wednesday, short of Thursday ( generally seen as a “news day” ) on deck – and likely larger moves in markets.

It’s still just early September.

The big boys / overall trading volume still quite low……I don’t expect “fireworks” for another week er so, when the USD slide becomes something “discussed” in the main stream media.

Keep in mind…..a weak dollar benefits Trump’s general plan / The Fed’s overall plan, and the only way forward for the incredible “recovery in the U.S”.

Stars align. Very little brain power needed.

 

 

Bitcoin – U.S Dollar and Gold Correlations

I harken back to the “good old days” trading forex when…..I’d get up at the crack of dawn ( now’a days even earlier ) pull up my charts and trade journal, review the dailies/weeklies, check the “news calendar” and get set for another day out on the playing field.

Glorious times. Truly glorious times. Times I will always associate with incredible freedom, excitement, and the ever satisfying / rewarding experience of being able to share my thoughts and experiences with you the readers as……….pulling apart and exposing the underbelly of financial markets (for those who perhaps needed a little “extra help”) was not only extremely gratifying – but somewhat of a passion.

Coming full circle, as things more often than not do……..I’m here yet  again, and oddly…..faced with similar circumstances / similar variables in an ever-changing financial eco system.

Oh yes……you know it. I’m talking about ( not only Bitcoin ) but “once again” – I’m talking about the good ol American Dollar.

The U.S Dollar is now headed “DECIDEDLY LOWER”.

And……if any of you have learned “anything” here over the years – What happens to assets “priced in U.S.D” when the dollar falls?? Yes! You’ve got it….assets such as gold and Bitcoin will rise as you need MORE DOLLARS to by them!

This is a monthly chart of USD:

USD To Fall Big Time

USD To Fall Big Time

You see the dark black line? Give or take a day / week ……give or take a few points higher ( who gives a shit ) this marks the serious “top of tops” in USD and a massive turning point in markets.

Guess which markets? Ya……Gold and commods sure…but perhaps more interestingly (and now in context) you may finally understand my recent “forray” into Crypto.

“As The U.S Dollar Falls – Both Gold And Bitcoin Will Rise in Tandem.”

It’s Forex 2.0 folks – just a tad more “futuristic”.

Quick charts on Bitcoin and likely Gold bottoms:

Bitcoin Bottom Around 6400.00

Bitcoin Bottom Around 6400.00

See the dark black line = bottom area.

Now Gold:

Gold Bottom Around 1200.00

Gold Bottom Around 1200.00

 

This isn’t a trade people…..this is a fundamental. Put it in your pocket as you continue to “question” the validity of crypto while “right in front of your faces” you’ll be watching the further depreciation of your “fiat / paper bullshit” along with it your purchasing power and more importantly – your freedom.