Dow Weekly Swing Low – Back To The Highs

The completion of this “intermediate cycle” is now within striking distance, after several days of extremely frustrating / volatile trading. Wow – what a shake out.

Now the technicals are “just a hair away” from confirming a “weekly swing low” (when the close of the weekly candle is “higher” than the close of the previous weekly candle).

You see it here? Just a few more points and the swing will be complete.

Dow Weekly Swing Low

Dow Weekly Swing Low

I would also take note of the “screaming double top” There around 26,900. Yo can clearly see rejection back in Jan/Feb as well as here in October.

The average stock today (ok a few days ago) is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation.

There are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today: just before the Great Depression hit and in the 1999 run-up to the dotcom bubble burst.

One would have to ask themselves ‘What possible upside could remain” considering the gong show in evaluations, the bleak earnings we just saw in Q3, the trade war as well both China and Russia dumping BILLIONS of U.S Dollar Debt…..and the results of the mid term elections likely to have “significant impact” if indeed democrats steal back the house or senate.

Since March, Russia has dumped 84% of it’s American debt holdings! 84%! The bond selling has now reached “waterfall levels” with no real signs of support.

The U.S Dollar is set for the next “dumping” here as of today as well.

With the weekly swing low “essentially in” one might expect that stocks shoot for the highs here once again BUT! Mid terms could put a rook in those plans.

Generally speaking……what we will see over the next few weeks will be those retail investors who have “finally gotten off the couch” thinking this time it will be different.

It’s never different.

10 years straight up……..unprecedented. How does 2-4 years down sound? 

Totally normal, as we’ve got 150 years of data to work from.

10 years up? Common…….the “down” is gonna look equally nutty.

 

 

 

2018 Gains Erased – Bitcoin To Surge

OK so………

Let this simply be a lesson to you. You are NOT PREPARED for a market melt down. You are not protecting your gains……you are NOT PREPARED for “this” in any possible sense, as you’ve just seen the entire year of 2018 ERASED in a matter of days.

No judgement here. We are all learning. We are all doing the best we possibly can.

Or are we?

History repeats itself ( or so you’re told ) so Ok….let’s take a quick look at that.

This is the longest BULL RUN ( now going on 10 years ) in THE ENTIRE HISTORY of the stock market. Stop for a second and ponder….the longest bull run EVER, on the heels of the largest money printing experiment in the history of mankind…now 10 years out! This has NEVER HAPPENED before. EVER!

The brainwashing at a maximum as…….when you look in the mirror tonight before bed and you actually consider things are just going to “keep moving higher”?? Madness. This is pure madness, and in my eyes….completely irresponsible.

Impossible.

Did you learn anything the last time around?

If this “shot across the bow” hasn’t been enough to shake you out of your complacent / oxy driven sleep well…….I have little sympathy. This is a blessing for those who care to open their eyes.

THE ALGO’S HAVE SWITCHED FROM BUY TO SELL.

The big boys are essentially already out!!! Bam! Just like that….one years worth of CNBC hype –  your cash now transferred to your broker / bank as you capitulate / sell at the bottom. Indeed…..history repeating itself. THE BIG BOYS ARE ALREADY OUT!

So….what happens next?

Retail buys the dip.

The media swings back into full-blown promo, the numbers keep coming in / data not “too terrible” ( fok…….are you nuts?? Housing will never recover the previous highs, tech “might” push on, transports not going to recover the previous highs etc…..) – The list goes on.

Housing Off A Cliff

Housing Off A Cliff

While you where off golfing in Phoenix. The algo changed. This will NEVER recover as indication quite similar to the fall of 2007-8. Housing hooped and interest rates GOING UP!

So what do I do?

If you have anything left at all ( which for most is likely a big fat “0” ) you do indeed buy this dip……as one of the last runs towards the highs. IF! – The highs are reached again.

Throw greed out the window = you lost. You are now a bag holder. Period.

If lucky…..my suggestion is simply to sell every fokin thing you own prior to May 2019 – IF NOT SOONER as……the profits you saw on paper a month ago are very unlikely to return. THEY WILL NOT RETURN!

So this is not a time of greed……this is not a time for complacency..this is a time for protection / caution / plan for the fall out.

2008 gonna look like a total picnic. Stocks to shed some 50-60% value / market cut in half. Total economic destruction. Why on earth would you hold thru 4 years of that? ONly to find yourself below break even?

I won’t allow it.

Prepare now.

Selling is your goal. Not buying.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Cycle Low – Hang On Another Day

Stocks have almost completed their  “intermediate cycle low” so you “holders of paper” only need to wait another day er two / catch your breath / don’t freak out.

You have grown “so complacent here” that these “few down days” have you on pins and needles, debating whether you should simply just “sell” before you’re left with nothing.

You sell on green candles traders ( some days ago? )…… and you buy on red.

None the less…..we are still very much so in a right translated / daily uptrend in stocks – with this cycle extending to like…..38-40 days? Wow….a long one….but now near completion.

Dow Nears Support

Dow Nears Support

This is still a very strong uptrend – with an “intermediate cycle decline” now near complete. The test of support area ( as seen by the black line ) looking good.

I can only assume the next leg higher starts like……tomorrow.

 

Bitcoin slowly moving up from the proposed low at 6400.00

Gold = flat ( who really cares right? )

USD – Crater on deck – as suggested.

 

Stay SHORT USD – USD Pop ‘n Drop

Daily cycles can vary in length for different assets, but in general The U.S Dollar tends to move in an “18-22 day period” from trough to trough.

The previous daily cycle topped out on day 4 then rolled over for a good solid move lower over a 16 day period.

Today marks the beginning of a new daily cycle now………don’t get excited.

USD Downtrend to Continue

USD Downtrend to Continue

A new daily cycle that will “again fail” early ( if not immediately ) and roll back over for another “crater” into oblivion so……..a new daily cycle in a “bearish downtrend” only providing further opportunity to SHORT. The dark black line showing the resistance zone for USD. She ain’t poppin thru that – no way!

I’m not flinching / moving a muscle as today is a single day’s action that has already run straight into overhead resistance. The U.S Dollar is NOT reversing its downward trajectory here – hell no.

Waterfalls ahead. Stay Short – keep accumulating crypto. You’ll see.

 

 

Comments Anyone? – Kong Back From the Future

I welcome your comments. Trolls and fans alike…….bring it on people. If you’ve got a gripe.

As I had mentioned some time ago, the “infrequency of posts” can be generally correlated to “how well I’m doing in markets” or more so in recent days – my complacency. Admittedly – complacent.

Why so Kong? You’ve always advocated vigilance and planning / observation as key elements to any trade plan. How’d you get so “chill” here these days? The world is crazy! What about Trump? Trump??

Relax.

Kong_Complacent

                                                                                   Kong_Complacent

As much as the American’s have such terrible views of their current sitting President –  have you seen how markets are performing lately? Trump continues to confuse…..but the big boys / highest earners / tax bracket / big business / economic drivers are loving it!

And now another massive depreciation of the U.S Dollar to boot? Anyone in the “financial biz” in complete heaven!

The “short USD trade” now 5 days running……now swung high on a MONTHLY chart = doom / waterfall action in USD coming AGAIN here pronto.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stars Align – U.S.D Crater Begins

When you zoom out and trade as “deep and wide” as I do……you don’t let the small squiggles get in the road of your larger “macro economic view”.

Mind you…..On occasion I love to get down in to the trenches as well…( short-term trading an hourly chart – something I call fun! ) but rarely as…..the short term trend works best when matched up with both the medium and the long.

stars_align_forex_kong

stars_align_forex_kong

In this case – Short U.S Dollar / Long Bitcoin.

Teetering on the edge….the precipice as it where. U.S D ( as suggested ) looking to fall off a cliff.

Little to add on a slow Wednesday, short of Thursday ( generally seen as a “news day” ) on deck – and likely larger moves in markets.

It’s still just early September.

The big boys / overall trading volume still quite low……I don’t expect “fireworks” for another week er so, when the USD slide becomes something “discussed” in the main stream media.

Keep in mind…..a weak dollar benefits Trump’s general plan / The Fed’s overall plan, and the only way forward for the incredible “recovery in the U.S”.

Stars align. Very little brain power needed.

 

 

Bitcoin – U.S Dollar and Gold Correlations

I harken back to the “good old days” trading forex when…..I’d get up at the crack of dawn ( now’a days even earlier ) pull up my charts and trade journal, review the dailies/weeklies, check the “news calendar” and get set for another day out on the playing field.

Glorious times. Truly glorious times. Times I will always associate with incredible freedom, excitement, and the ever satisfying / rewarding experience of being able to share my thoughts and experiences with you the readers as……….pulling apart and exposing the underbelly of financial markets (for those who perhaps needed a little “extra help”) was not only extremely gratifying – but somewhat of a passion.

Coming full circle, as things more often than not do……..I’m here yet  again, and oddly…..faced with similar circumstances / similar variables in an ever-changing financial eco system.

Oh yes……you know it. I’m talking about ( not only Bitcoin ) but “once again” – I’m talking about the good ol American Dollar.

The U.S Dollar is now headed “DECIDEDLY LOWER”.

And……if any of you have learned “anything” here over the years – What happens to assets “priced in U.S.D” when the dollar falls?? Yes! You’ve got it….assets such as gold and Bitcoin will rise as you need MORE DOLLARS to by them!

This is a monthly chart of USD:

USD To Fall Big Time

USD To Fall Big Time

You see the dark black line? Give or take a day / week ……give or take a few points higher ( who gives a shit ) this marks the serious “top of tops” in USD and a massive turning point in markets.

Guess which markets? Ya……Gold and commods sure…but perhaps more interestingly (and now in context) you may finally understand my recent “forray” into Crypto.

“As The U.S Dollar Falls – Both Gold And Bitcoin Will Rise in Tandem.”

It’s Forex 2.0 folks – just a tad more “futuristic”.

Quick charts on Bitcoin and likely Gold bottoms:

Bitcoin Bottom Around 6400.00

Bitcoin Bottom Around 6400.00

See the dark black line = bottom area.

Now Gold:

Gold Bottom Around 1200.00

Gold Bottom Around 1200.00

 

This isn’t a trade people…..this is a fundamental. Put it in your pocket as you continue to “question” the validity of crypto while “right in front of your faces” you’ll be watching the further depreciation of your “fiat / paper bullshit” along with it your purchasing power and more importantly – your freedom.

 

 

 

Bitcoin At $6400.00 – Your Opportunity Once Again

This has been a pretty brutal consolidation in Bitcoin and all crypto for the most part as – the entire crypto space currently rests on the shoulders of our beloved BTC. Once again $6400.00 ( identified months ago ) proves to be the line in the sand.

You get it right? As early adopters, a choice few have been able to recognize / distinguish the differences in one blockchain technology and the other – but for the most part ( with only a tiny fraction of the planet currently invested in crypto ) everyone and their three legged cat still thinks the entire thing is about Bitcoin.

Don’t get me wrong.

Bitcoin 5 Hour Chart - 6400.00

Bitcoin 5 Hour Chart – 6400.00

Bitcoin IS the backbone as it’s the “reserve cryptocurrency” of most of the largest crypto trading platforms ( meaning………you can’t FUND these accounts with fiat dollars….you must DEPOSIT BTC ) so all the trading pairs listed are listed with respect to their price “VS BTC”).

Like the old days of Forex…..when you would buy EUR/USD effectively saying Euro going up….USD going down. The largest crypto exchanges have all the other “Alt Coins” ( alternative coins ) priced vs BTC.

So you want to buy TRON ( TRX ).

You’ll first need to find a crypto wallet / service that allows you to convert your fiat currency ( US or Canadian Dollars ) TO Bitcoin……THEN USE BTC to purchase / trade the other pairs / coins.

The pairs look like this:

TRX/BTC

LTC/BTC

XRP/BTC

So understand……BITCOIN IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

With billions in trading volume….these HUGE exchanges such as Binace.com won’t just pack up and disappear, and bitcoin will serve as the “store of value” in the new digital economy as gold once did when there “was” a real economy.

Let’s see if she holds, and if the ol Kondicator ( my proprietary trade algo ) can soon be validated as the “Crypto” Kongdicator.

Have at it….I’m in the kitchen making tacos.

 

 

Bitcoin Retest Complete – Weak Hands Lose

Bitcoin popped down and retested 6400 area = DONE.

A blurb I ripped from some young punk / crypto trader who sounds like he’s equally been reading a little too much Kong.

Don’t Be A Crypto ‘Weak-Hand’, It’s What They Want…

The whole Crypto investor market is currently massively over-reacting to this SEC ETF delay and in general, losing their shit right now.

I’ve said for over a year now that in order for the proper ‘mooning’ to begin, a few jigsaw pieces need to be placed:

1.) Wallstreet (my general term for banks and institutional whales) need to get involved and that the major banks will start to buy out Crypto exchanges so that they have data/information feeds. DONE

2.) Before Wallstreet enter a new market like this, just like many commodity markets in the past, first they will create a Futures market. This way they can manipulate and suppress prices of Cryptos without owning any Cryptos as they can Naked Short the market. DONE

3.) Wallstreet will need custodial services because they really won’t want to mess about with wallets and private keys and the risk of being hacked. So they will want to store it somewhere fully insured. DONE

4.) Wallstreet will then bring about the first Bitcoin ETF so that hedge funds can play with the crypto space without actually buying any cryptos. ALMOST DONE.

The thing to remember here is that when a Bitcoin ETF is finally passed, that ETF company will have to actually go out and buy billions of Dollars worth of Bitcoin. And store it somewhere. And these boys won’t just buy it at market price. They will drive the price down so they get more Bitcoin for their buck. And then they will store it (fully insured) at a ‘Crypto Bank’ with custodial services. That’s what Coinbase is to Wallstreet. A retail exchange for the average Joe and a ‘Crypto Bank’ for the Whales.

So I’m not surprised at all we are having a last minute tree shake as they are just trying to scare away all the ‘weak hands’. I.e. Those currently pulling their hair out, checking coinmarketcap every 10 minutes and questioning whether Cryptos will ever get back to all time highs. DON’T BE A WEAK HAND.

These big boys control the media message and flow and being sucker-punched into selling your Cryptos is exactly what they want.

All of the pieces are almost in place now for the next fractal surge up. The second the Bitcoin ETF is approved I bet my bottom NEO that the ETH ETF won’t be far behind. And then the options market won’t be far behind that. That will attract more traders. Then the derivatives floodgates won’t be far behind and then there will be LEVERAGE! After a couple years of easy public accessible LEVERAGE, that is when you need to start worrying about getting out of Cryptos. By then your pension fund will no doubt have a small Crypto allocation.

With a property you have leverage and can buy a house 10 times more than you can afford. With equities you can buy and sell 2-5 times more stock than you can afford. Right now, the public cannot easily amplify their holdings. This is a MAJOR reason why we are NO WHERE NEAR PEAK BUBBLE.

In 2007 the average stripper in Florida owned 7 apartments. That’s how silly leverage got in the housing market. Right now I doubt even 1% of strippers own any Cryptos. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fully aware that most participants in this market right now are in pain. Many are probably 60-90% down on their portfolios and the strategy of HODLing isn’t sitting too well with the more impatient speculators.

 

I also know many people who made 6 figures profit in 2017 and are now only sitting on 4 or 5 figures profit. Hell, I traded my $25k portfolio up from $25k to $1m in a 4 month period. I took a couple hundred grand off the table to divest back into my businesses to create some real cashflowing income streams, so sat here right now it’s looking vastly diminished in the low 6 figures. BUT through exiting the market for most of the Bitcoin crash and dancing in and out a few times, I’ve actually got over double the amount of tokens than I originally had. Even though I extracted some profits. Regardless, there’s lots of soured & bitter people around right now.

Many are blaming others, but ultimately, as an Investor, YOU are responsible for your portfolio. Many jumped in with way more than Risk Capital. Some have left the market completely, which is a good thing in my opinion. The get-rich-quick ‘WHEN MOONers?’ aren’t good for this market.

They repel the more level-headed investors which in turn slightly extends the time it takes for this industry to go mainstream. Most of them are investors who have never invested before and Cryptos are their very first investment. Which is why so many people are being duped into the most basic of scams like One Coin, Das Coin, Bitconnect and USI Tech. So it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster for them. They got caught up in the hype of ‘Bitcoin to $1m in 1 or 2 years time’ and now it’s free-falling past $7000. This is actually the BEST investing lesson they will ever learn. IF they heed and learn from this…

So if you’re in Cryptos you NEEEEEED to be in for the RIGHT reasons:

1.)You’re in for the short/medium term (until the proper bubble pop) when the public come rushing in en masse. This won’t happen until the ‘Early Majority’ (of the Adoption cycle) comes in, Cryptos are as easy as online banking, there is an established naming service just like websites have URLs AND there is LEVERAGE so your waster mate Dave down the pub can re-mortgage his house and also amplify his Bitcoin holdings.

2.) You’re in Cryptos with no more than RISK CAPITAL. That means you won’t lose your shit or feel suicidal whenever the market does its annual 30-70% drawdown.

3.) You’re INFORMED! You know it’s going to be an extremely erratic market for at least the next 10 years and that there will be an endless string of scandals, events and sensationalised news announcements.

4.) You’re aware that this is a short term highly speculative bubble which will most likely pop at some point. So you’re playing the Greater Fools game here and then the long term BUY, HOLD and NEVER sell game once this market matures. Just like hoovering up the Blue Chip stocks that were still operational after the Tech Bubble fallout. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and IBM etc.

5.) By being informed you can retain THE BIGGER PICTURE. Which is all of the above, and that whether you got into BTC at $19k or $10k, will be relatively insignificant compared to the sheer potential Bitcoin and the rest of the market could grow to. Amazon is now $1900 per share. I’m pretty sure you’d be happy if you bought in at $20 or $50 per share. Hell, even $200 is cheap.