I’ve been patiently awaiting the bottom in Silver, and the correlated “top” in the U.S Dollar.
We have now arrived.
The same principle in markets playing out time and time again…..commodities priced in USD fall, as the “perceived value” of the U.S Dollar rises. This “inverse correlation” will now flip – with commodities ( silver / oil ) moving decidely higher, while my ol buddy the U.S Dollar get’s back on it’s way to the basement.
You just can’t have both folks. The recent “strength” in USD coupled with the massive blow to U.S companies exporting to China is most certainly not good for markets. Remember??? Forex?
The U.S ( and every other country for that matter ) wants / “needs a weak domestic currency” in order to compete / promote sales abroad.
Here’s how the two charts look:
U.S Dollar Top
Take note of today’s candle formation = top top top.
I’m looking at a couple super cheap silver mining stocks in order to take advantage as…for the most part the sector moves as a whole. Endeavour Silver Corp ( EDR ) looking like a great way to go as it’s only 2.37 cents.
Don’t get me started about China and the trade war – this is serious shit. Markets no likey.
Haven’t you noticed? It’s not a silly headline and it’s not “that stupid Trump”. It’s serious shit gang.
I don’t own any stocks first off…….and I haven’t for months. What have I missed? Jack squat man……15 weeks of watching this thing day in day out – wiped in a few afternoons? Not my bag.
I don’t trade Forex much anymore either as it’s lost it’s appeal in comparison to “riding into the future” on a spaceship purchased with Bitcoin.
You may want to to revisit my previous posts / suggestions about cryptocurrency and consider my firm belief that we are on the cusp of an entirely “new financial paradigm” wherein – I don’t want anything to do with the phoney baloney / last gasp / hand off to retail / overvalued / bought back stocks of the day.
Wall St. is selling like mad, as the last of the “armchair investors” scrape together their last few shillings to buy stocks – right at the top. Just like always. This will never change.
Did you happen to see any of the recent crypto currency gains? Gary? You there? You dolt. Way to go man….running a pay service with suggestions that crypto will go to zero….pure brilliance.
From a technical standpoint, you stock jockey’s are gonna catch another break here mid week with the equities cycle on day 44 now. we are totally oversold and the bounce will come within days “if not” tomorrow. I don’t question that stocks will bob along over the next 3 – 4 months but……if they do get anywhere near the previous highs…once again you’d count yourself as “batshit lucky”.
Dow now at support
Here on the weekly chart we can clearly see an area of support and resistance around these levels, and the daily trend is still “up” so……another run towards the highs quite probable, although please keep in mind…
This will be the 4th attempt to break thru. How does that line up with a recession on deck? Perfectly…if you plan to sell.
Bitcoin is on a tear as expected but I assume it will pull back to a new level of support here soon – then be off to the races FOREVER.
I’m just throwing out another quick reminder to all – please be cautious. Please bank profits. Please don’t buy anymore CNBC Kool-aid.
The U.S Dollar has now confirmed what I’ve been suggesting for literally “years”.
The latest fall has USD generating “yet another” failed daily cycle, confirming that the United States Dollar is headed for the basement. Cryptocurrencies have now taken centre stage, along side The Euro, as the second most widely held reserve currency on the planet.
The U.S Dollar will be sold “even more aggressively” than in recent weeks / months and the trade is now “more than safe” to enter.
You get short USD – NOW…..and you stay that way until mid October. This is major, major, major serious news but not likely front and centre on your local news ( In the United States I wonder if it will be mentioned at all!) as you know my thoughts about that. We’ve only got one small support zone left to break, and it’s literally…..a loooooong way down after that.
USD – Bear Market Begins
Gold, Cryptocurrencies ( such as Bitcoin ) and The Euro will explode higher, as USD takes a serious nose dive over coming weeks. I’m even considering a target as low as the 85 area by mid October when “once again” the U.S Debt Ceiling is reached…then extended – as always!
We’ll get into specific trades here starting Monday, but in all…….( and I rarely say this in trading Forex ) this is going to be easy money / a very straight forward trade.
Get short USD now…..get long Gold, The EURO and most any cryptocurrency you can manage – then we’ll see how you feel come mid October.
Think about buying yourself some “weed” for more than a few reasons in wake of this USD Bear Market…now confirmed.
I am heavily immersed in the Canadian Marijuana biz ( more on that later ) and am currently spouting off everything I know – “and will know” as Canada moves towards federal legalization spring of 2018. Hit the newsletter sign up – you won’t be disappointed.
It never hurts to consider the “what if’s” – right?
Playing the devil’s advocate here, I fully understand the complete and total “retail euphoria” currently playing out in markets. Don’t get me wrong either….I’ve missed a couple trades here and there. Fair enough.
Stepping back and taking a wider view…the SP 500 hasn’t “really” gone anywhere for a full month ( some 20 odd trading days ) as much as the general media hype would still have you think you’ve missed the boat.
“This” isn’t exactly what I call missing a large scale move:
SP 500 – 20 days flat
Now the “what if”.
You all know I watch the Japanese Nikkei much closer than I generally do the SP so….
The weekly Nikkei is still suggestive of a considerable pullback on the horizon OR…..(and this is still quite possible) a major top / market reversal spanning several weeks.
Nikkei Looks Tough To Me
There is tonnes of room below – on route towards both the 50 day MA as well the 200 ( and we all know I love that 200! ) but more than that…..the previous high back there in Nov/Dec has yet again proven to be a very strong area of resistance.
What if……the Nikkei does still lead? What if….this retail “blow up” turns dramatically dark / sinister on some kind of “nuke news” out of Korea? What if your newly financed car ends up back on the lot since you recently dumped your life savings into the market?
Personally…..and I’ll say it again….I don’t like it.
I’m looking for a good reason to jump off the fence so….. your comments and opinions more than welcome.
If it’s all just rainbows and butterflies…..why am I not buying stocks?
For those of you who’ve so “intelligently subscribed” to “Kong’s Pot Stock Watch” – I commend you.
Aurora Cannabis has shot up some 15-20% ( don’t quote me here ) over recent days…and is holding / looking good! I’m well into it / averaged in around 2.25 and Canada is still on track to get this stuff legal in coming months. The trade alert come out over the weekend….so don’t be a fool. Get signed up and catch the next one.
In other news…
The U.S Dollar is a dog. You know my longer term thoughts / views on the money printing and the chaos that will one day ensue. Regardless….still looking for a near term bottom here ( as seen in previous charts of USD/CAD ) and a likely move to the upside.
Today we see a “swing low” on day 17-18 of the daily cycle so…..don’t get out the red panties but I assume USD will take a bounce here.
That’s it – I gotta run. It’s summer and I’m busy doing things that make sense….not staring at charts / watching paint dry, but don’t think for a minute I’ve taken my eye off the ball.
I know everything. I see everything. I am thousands of years old……
Anyone who hasn’t already learned their lesson “this summer” can simply file it away for next year. You’ve learned something right? You’ve learned that you just can’t “make” markets move…no matter how badly you are scratching to hit those buttons! Markets suck during the summer, and I don’t care what anyone else has to say about. I know. I continue to survive – picking my shots when most likely to see reward….staying out of trouble when volume is low.
Summer is no time for big moves / big trades or big expectations. Take it. Learn from it…and consider yourself a better trader.Done deal.
Looking ahead….as much as it pains me to admit it…..this thing continues to pull in retailers at an incredible clip, and has every likelihood of blowing expectations “TO THE UPSIDE”.
All the pieces are in place really….as I receive more and more inquiries from old friends across the planet asking me for investment assistance “scared shitless” that they’re gonna miss out – as their broker just called with another hot deal.
All the makings of one incredible “blow off top / blast for the stars rip” as the last of the retail gang get’s off the couch with their 2k nest eggs. Sad in a sense as……these poor folk are very often buying the top and unable to act quickly enough to book profits before the fall. Seeing it s many times in the past…..it’s a cycle and it ALWAYS repeats.
I got bumped ( obviously ) on the last lil trade with The U.S Dollar ‘s continued fall. Certainly didn’t expect another daily cycle down, but that should be the last before both USD and U.S Stocks pop to the upside.
Charts? I got nothin……short of wishing I could chart my continued boredom / lack of participation vs some idiot out there pushing buttons all summer. Profits dick-head? I think not.
I will plow you in the face – the next dumb ass giving me a hard time in the comments section believe me. I’ve gotten on planes to “make things right” for a lot less.
Cool your jets kiddies….I’m back, and will be lighting it up again here shortly.
Well well well…..it looks as though USD has finally, FINALLY found its bottom.
I can pull out a number of fantastic correlations / trades in the currency market ‘specific to USD’ but at this point in time…..the general market movement / usual correlations will be saved for another day – as we’ve all seen a number of these fall apart as of late.
Gold has fallen consistently “with” USD which in most cases makes no sense, tech stocks have been clobbered and considering the buoyancy in markets in general….have NOT been actively participating.
EUR/USD pretty straight forward here: SAFE TO SHORT
safe to short EUR
Markets continue to trade in “good ol summer fashion” leaving most traders scratching their heads looking for direction.
It’s nuts out there! You know it, I know it.
You’d think an intermediate bottom in USD would send Gold decidedly lower…but even there….gold has landed near an area of support so…..we’ve got some “rotation” going here, and need to take the time to figure out – WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING NEXT?
Risk trade in AUD/JPY would appear to have hit resistance but…..nothing to write home about.
Risk Trade in AUD/JPY
It “almost looks to me” like a bottom in USD might amount to more U.S stocks being sold, and in turn US dollar reserves moving higher, while gold stays flat but….that’s pure speculation.
We need another day er two to see how things unfold from here. I’m short EUR/USD – and that’s it!
Personally….I rarely look at this pair as any, “ANY indication” of larger market moves or global appetite for risk as – these are they two most widely held reserve type currencies on the planet, and their comparable movement does nothing for me / my analysis or for the most part….my account.
The general “forex media / forex industry” promotes the trading of this pair like there’s no tomorrow, and new traders tend to love it. Don’t ask me why. Well ok ask me why…..cuz they don’t know anything about forex before they start trading it!
So if the coming move in forex markets “in general” can be at all illustrated for you “new comers” via this pair – take a look at the weekly chart of EUR/USD:
Resistance Ahead For EUR
See that big red candle back near the first part of October? The one with the tall “wick” on it? High of 1.1305? Then looking back…..see the confluence area surrounding this price level “rough and nasty”?
Now check Gold:
Resistance For Gold
Support For USD
These are the kinds of “large time frame” areas of support and resistance where you can start considering some “serious” trading . Not getting bogged down in the short-term flutters, if you can just manage to keep your friggin hands off the mouse for a day er two!
Not much more to be said here. You know what I’m getting at as this trade is getting very close.
It’s the “knowing ahead of time” and the “recognition” that these levels and correlations exist that will elevate your short term trading as you should “already know” the levels to watch for reversal. THEN pop down to your 1H charts and plot your entry.
Eur set to top. Gold set to top. USD set to bottom for a solid “medium term trade” so……start eyeing these charts for their reversal on the 1H at the bare minimum before even considering entry.