Healthcare Bill To Stall – Market Tumble Continues

By Megan Davies and Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Trump Trade could start looking more like a Trump Tantrum if the new U.S. administration’s healthcare bill stalls in Congress, prompting worries on Wall Street about tax cuts and other measures aimed at promoting economic growth.

Investors are dialing back hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump will swiftly enact his agenda, with a Thursday vote on a healthcare bill a litmus test which could give stock investors another reason to sell.

“If the vote doesn’t pass, or is postponed, it will cast a lot of doubt on the Trump trades,” said the influential bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive at DoubleLine Capital.

U.S. stocks rallied after the November presidential election, with the S&P 500 posting a string of record highs up to earlier this month, on bets that the pro-growth Trump agenda would be quickly pushed by a Republican Party with majorities in both chambers of Congress.

 

Investors extrapolated that a stalling bill could mean uphill battles for other Trump proposals. Trump and Republican congressional leaders appeared to be losing the battle to get enough support to pass it.

Any hint of further trouble for Trump’s agenda, especially his proposed tax cut, could precipitate a stock market correction, said Byron Wien, veteran investor and vice chairman of Blackstone (NYSE:BX) Advisory Partners.

I expect markets to continue lower well into next week, as those who’ve not yet sold “freak out” at the last minute…then sell into the waterfall. Sound familiar? Stocks will bounce sure…so if you are holding now…you likely lose a few nights sleep but “its too late to sell now”. 

How many days / weeks ago did I suggest to “raise cash” and look for another great entry opportunity?

Read the rest here.

التداول عبر الانترنت مع Trade 360

arabic-trade-360

طريقة ذكية لتجارة الفوركس

انضم إلينا اليوم.

قم بالايداع الان واحصل على ما يصل الى 5000$ استرداد للنقود!

 

مع Trade360 ستحصل على:

  • تصل إلى 1: 400 النفوذ
  • التداول بنقرة واحدة
  • أكثر من 200 أصول قابلة للتداول
  • تداول الأصول المفضلة لديك على تطبيقات الجوال الخاص بك (على حد سواء دائرة الرقابة الداخلية والروبوت)
  • الدعم التعليمي لكل مستوى الحساب
  • الحرة الحشد مجاني إشارات تجارة الأعلاف
  • دعم على مدار 24 ساعة عبر الدردشة، ماذا التطبيقات، والهاتف، والبريد الإلكتروني

تلقي استرداد النقود على كل التجارة التي تقوم بها

سيكون لديك مدير حساب مخصص لمساعدتك

 التجارة بثقة مع وسيط تداول منظم وآمن تماما

Features

Trade360 is especially noted for its innovative crowd trading platform that is based on research indicating that group behavior patterns can reveal market trends before they appear as exchange rates or prices in the market. The proprietary trading tools employed by Trade360 measure how market sentiment changes in relation to other market indicators. This can result in an above average forecast of future market trends. While the company does not yet provide trading advice, their indicators and signals can be used in making trading decisions.

قم بالايداع الان واحصل على ما يصل الى 5000$ استرداد للنقود!

Through the company’s proprietary CrowdTrading platform, traders can choose from a wide variety of tradable assets. The unique interface offers live data feeds of crowd activity that provide traders interested in the behavior of crowds, with a basis upon which to make a trading decision.

Trade360 has a minimum deposit amount of $100.00 to open a standard live trading account. If a trader is interested in opening a demo account, then Trade360 is currently offering a promotion using a practice account with $10,000 in virtual money. The company also awards the new trader with $10 for opening a position, $20 for closing the position, and $30 if the trader has made a profit of more than $30 on the trade, which makes the bonus worth $60.

“The entire concept of CrowdTrading is to show the aggregated actions of masses of traders, but not only what asset they are trading on and whether they buy or sell it,”

“CrowdTrading shows all of that, but also changes in Volatility, in trends of asset directions, in volume traded, in speed of quote fluctuations and many other factors that can help a trader make an informed decision.”

The web platform works off a single browser screen showing a feed of trading ideas and selected instruments with a small chart, rates, spread, margin and the buy/sell sentiment in one box. Clicking on the small chart opens a separate window with a larger chart and clicking on the feed loads a tab to take action on the instrument. Other aspects of the platform, such as a competition leaderboard, are available from tabs on the screen.

The firm reiterates the “revolution” it is aiming to deliver in the way online brokers approach newbie traders: “The collaborative work of our developers, data specialist and financial experts that created CrowdTrading is going to make the learning curve of a new trader much simpler and the decision making process so much easier and intuitive.” Trade360 says that several new features to be released in the near future will foster traders’ decision making process.

Trade360 offers clients their own proprietary crowd trading platform called CrowdTrader. This platform gives clients access to a number of custom built tools that traders find particularly useful. The CrowdTrader platform does not require a download and can be accessed through any current web browser and operating system. Also, a mobile application for the software is available to run on Android mobile devices, and an iOS version is offered for use on Apple iPhones, iPods and iPads.

قم بالايداع الان واحصل على ما يصل الى 5000$ استرداد للنقود!

One of the advantages of using the CrowdTrader platform includes getting alerts that allow the trader to keep ahead of possible market trend developments. The system also detects trend reversals in a timely fashion that become evident as crowd sentiment shifts.

A favorite CrowdTrader feature is that it allows the trader to monitor the market through a live feed, showing market trends taking place and changing in real time. This feature gives the trader an edge since they can monitor the so-called “wisdom of the crowd”. Conversely, if the trader uses a contrarian system, they can detect the “lack of wisdom of the crowd”.

With the CrowdTrader platform, the trader can place trades and monitor position in hundreds of different trading instruments, which include major currency pairs, indexes, commodities, stock and CFDs. Trader’s funds and transactions are secured by 128-bit SSL encryption technology.

Deposits and Withdrawals

Trade360 only requires a minimum $100 deposit. In addition to the beginner’s “practice trading” account mentioned previously, the broker offers money back on every trade made with the initial $100 deposit.  The higher the initial deposit, the more Cashback Trade360 will pay out. Trade360 accepts credit card deposits made with Visa, MasterCard, Maestro, JCB, DinersClub and American Express. In addition, you can use bank wire transfers, Skrill and Neteller to fund trading accounts.  Trade360 charges no fees on deposits.

Beginners’ and Customer Support

Trade360’s customer service department is open 24 hours a day throughout the financial trading week. The company offers its clients support through email, live chat and telephone lines. The staff seems helpful and gives out valuable information on crowd trading, which is a somewhat unfamiliar subject to many traders.

Conclusion

Trade360 is a unique type of regulated broker, providing a social trading service that can be extremely useful to many traders. The broker also allows for trading in a wide array of financial instruments.

Their proprietary online CrowdTrading platform is fairly easy to use, although it can be a bit difficult to navigate relative to the platforms supported by other brokers. Still, it uniquely offers traders potentially valuable and timely market information based on what large groups of people are doing in the market. In addition, the platform is available for mobile devices running Android or iOS operating systems.

قم بالايداع الان واحصل على ما يصل الى 5000$ استرداد للنقود!

EUR/USD Update – Kong Books Profits

I don’t leave money one table, and when looking at “the macro” hey – a trade is a trade “within” this framework.

I’m booking some 230 pips profit on a long and hard-fought battle/trade – long EUR/USD around 1.05

Markets suck and you know it. You think you’re right – but you’re wrong. I think I’m wrong and I’m right etc… This is no time to be a hotshot as the sky is cloudy, the water muddy, the day-to-day ( without question ) – unclear.

You need to be right “more times than you are wrong” – get it? If you are still searching for some kind of “krystal ball” here on the ol Internet well…..I advise you to stay tuned here, as well go visit your local psychic. This is likely as good as it gets.

Don’t get me wrong as I will never EVER apologize. If you go bet the farm with your piddly 2k trade account and choose to roll the dice – all power to you baby. Moving forward I will do the following:

Simply look to re – enter “short risk” when yet another grand opportunity arises..just around the corner.

Short USD, long EUR and JPY

Short AUD , NZD and CAD

Gold = hold.

Gold can kiss my ass……these long term trade ideas are exactly that. Long term. You don’t expect to get rich overnight but…..wait – Do you ever expect to get rich overnight?

Calm yourself newbies. Watch and learn. This is the big boys game.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Forex Kong Books Profits

               Forex Kong Books Profits

 

 

 

 

AUD/JPY – Focus On Risk Appetite

Well…..

Now that we’ve got that out-of-the-way ( the Fed’s sill little rate hike, and of course the nearly “not covered” debt ceiling debacle) we can move on. It’s time for more “mind bending macro market analysis” considering that these last few calls have been bang on the money. In short…..the U.S Dollar “plunge” shall continue, as both gold and The Euro continue to move higher. Further riches will be made with this simple concept burned into the back of your skull like a bad tattoo.

Let’s have a quick look at the weekly chart of my old friend AUD/JPY and refresh our memories, as to how this currency pair can help you gauge risk appetite with another simple concept.

AUD/JPY UP = Risk on.

AUD/JPY DOWN = Risk off.

                                                                       AUD/JPY – Risk on vs risk off

You can see how AUD/JPY has been trading completely flat for the past 10-12 weeks as U.S Stocks have really only taken a small leg higher during the same period of time. U.S Stocks are always ALWAYS the last to go when risk appetite ( and the machines on Wall St ) switch from “buy” to “sell”. Always.

AUD/JPY has been up against very solid resistance for an extended period of time, and if “all was well” would surely have broken through, and climbed higher along side U.S Equities some time ago.

Such is clearly not the case as this currency pair has “literally” miles to fall. And fall it shall.

I am currently tracking this pair but not getting excited about entry “short” until I see a nice solid read candle and a decisive break lower. Even 85.00 and lower to truly seal the deal.

You see how this works right? I’m “tracking / observing” market activity with a pre conceived notion of at least two ( if not two hundred ) things.

  1. AUD/JPY ( a significant indicator of risk appetite in markets in general ) is trading in a range against significant over head resistance.
  2. A significant break lower should “clear the field” and is suggestive of a much larger shift from “risk on to risk off” across markets in general.

Eezy Peezy when you have a plan. Do YOU have a plan? There could be 1000 pips below this currency pairs current price.

Damn rights I’m still short USD. Damn rights I still own NUGT. Damn rights I’m killing it long EUR/USD.

Any questions today? I’m back in the saddle.

 

 

 

Debt Ceiling Wednesday – Rate Hike Too?

Unfortunately….for those of you who’s investment and trading decisions depend solely on the grunt’s and groans of some smart mouthed Silverback with an attitude – I am busy today.

An esteemed  colleague and I have been summoned to the head offices of Google San Fran – where we will be building time machines, slipping microchips under our skin, and dancing through holographic simulations of the future. Jealousy will get you everywhere. I’ll post some pics later this week.

The Euro has continued higher – as expected. The U.S Dollar has taken its beating over the past few days and ( in my view ) will continue to get hammered –  as expected. And good ol’ gold has now put in its daily cycle low somewhere here around 1200.00 per ounce.

The current trade hypothesis still resting on the fact that “whatever happens” on Wednesday with respect to both interest rates rising and the U.S debt ceiling being reached “again”…The U.S Dollar sees its day, and continues South.

This “could” stretch another month if indeed the powers that be somehow appease markets – by what? Raising both interest rates AND raise the debt ceiling? This I truly have to see with my own eyes to truly get the full sense of just how “totally F’d” this system is.

I don’t particularly enjoy trading ahead of macro news events, but in the case will take it on the chin one way or another.

Good luck to all over the next 48 hours…you’ll likely need it.

Best advice…..don’t move a  muscle til ‘after the announcements on Wednesday….and even then – don’t get “trigger happy” Thursday morning either.

Forex_Kong_Space_Future

Forex_Kong_Space_Future

 

The U.S Dollar Is Everything – But Nothing At All

If you still don’t have currencies on your radar ( insert four letter words , cuss , spit , tantrum , psychotic episode, violent outrage ) well……..you and I can only go so far. Every time a U.S stock is bought or sold “on this entire f$&king planet” –  somehow / somewhere it likely involves currency exchange. What? You think you ‘Mericans are the only people buying your own crap? No wait…China’s crap. Sold back to you at 1000% mark up from your most trusted and beloved “American brands”.

Consider this.

The daily dollar volume of the entire planets stocks markets “combined” is around 84 billion dollars a day. That’s pretty impressive right?

Get ready numb nuts. ( a shout out to my alien followers currently residing in Antarctica ) Get it? “numb nuts”? Ya we talk…..we trade secrets/ compare notes etc…Different planets of origin –  same day to day shit.

The daily dollar volume of the entire planets FX market? 4 Trillion baby. 4 Trillion pieces of paper / bullshit / currency trading hands every single day so you can keep sippin yer Pepsi and scarfing those Dorritos.

The boats stay afloat….the rubber duckies keep showing up, and the wheels of the global economy keep on turning. All of it “currency driven”.

As the world’s “reserve currency” The U.S has had a strangle hold on world trade for like…eons. You get it right? If you want to buy oil…(tankers full of oil dip shit…not oil for your grandma’s lawn mower) Must convert rupee to dollars. You wanna buy copper? Must convert Canadian Loonies for U.S Dollars.

It’s bullshit. It’s ridiculous and it’s over. The planet has been moving away from exchange of USD for years now….China leading the charge.

Every stock market on the planet fits in the palm of my hand, but I need to “use my back” when I’m moving currencies.

Get a chart of $USD on your watch list boys. It’ll save you surfing through a million others trying to figure out WTF is goin on.

More “global perspective” for you . Imagine how stupid this looks to those of us from other worlds.

this is how it looks in the literal sense

Paper slaves…..more on this coming.

March Rate Hike – Already Priced In

The near term strength in The U.S Dollar ( although still no higher than 5 days ago…. ) is a ramp into the proposed rate hike and a clear “sell on the news” trade. It’s so obvious. Staring you right in the face as Gold’s near term slide looks to FINALLY end – in the congestion zone around 1200.00

Looks pretty clear to me, as per the previous post and information provided by James Rickards.  A “nominal rate hike” with stocks at all time highs ( when else could these bozos possibly even consider it ) and perhaps a short-term “extension” of this ridiculous euphoria….then reality, as both stocks and The U.S Dollar hit the skids.

  • USD/JPY should hit resistance around 114.85-114.95 and that will be that.
  • EUR/USD is perfectly fine here around 1.0525-1.055 ( as it’s STILL above 1.05 despite USD bounce )
  • AUD/JPY ( our “risk barometer” ) hasn’t even budged. No breakout. No nothin so…..

Don’t get too excited. Nothing has changed except of course –  further bad news on trade deficit with China and of course…..Trump instability / Tweetfest and generally nuttiness – still on the rise.

 

Forex_Kong_Cartoon

           Forex_Kong_Working

 

Market Participants – How Can’t You See This?

Please Read: I’ve highlighted the significant bits.

kong and rickards

Jim Rickards – Markets Are Experiencing Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term to describe a situation where perception and reality are out of sync.

It’s similar to what most people refer to as “denial.” The patient sees things one way, but the reality is different. Of course, it’s just a matter of time before reality prevails and the patient is jolted back to reality. This process can be fast or slow, easy or painful, but the important thing to bear in mind is reality always wins.

Something like cognitive dissonance is going on in markets right now. Markets have been temporarily euphoric over Trump’s tax, regulatory and spending policies. Those policies are important to business and credit cycles and economic growth.

The perception is that happy days are here again. The new Trump administration is expected to pour trillions of dollars of stimulus spending and tax cuts into the economy. Immediately after the Nov. 8 election, investors took a quick look at Trump’s policies and decided they liked what they saw.

Trump wants lower taxes, less regulation and higher infrastructure spending. Corporate profits and consumer spending benefit from lower taxes. Banks and pharmaceutical companies benefit from less regulation. Construction firms and defense contractors benefit from infrastructure spending. There seemed to be something for everyone, and the stock market took off like a Roman candle.

And indeed, the major stock indexes hit one record closing after another. The Dow topped 20,000 this week before pulling back. The dollar has been trading near a 14-year high, although it’s slipped in recent days. Gold was moving mostly sideways until it broke out again over the past few days.

Bank stocks went vertical in expectations of wider net interest margins (from Fed rate hikes) and less regulation (from Dodd-Frank reform). Happy days, indeed.

Reality is another matter. I’ve been warning my readers lately that the Trump trade is levitating in thin air and is ready for a fall. Now that reality could be beginning to sink in.

It’s far from clear how much of the Trump economic agenda will see the light of day. Congress wants to offset tax cuts in one area with tax increases in another so they are “revenue neutral.” That takes away the stimulus. Less regulation for banks won’t help the economy if bankers lead us into another financial meltdown like 2008.

Infrastructure spending will increase the debt-to-GDP ratio past the already high level of 105%, putting the U.S. closer to a sovereign debt crisis like Greece. As I wrote Tuesday, many believe a 60% debt-to-GDP ratio retards growth. That’s the standard the ECB uses for members of the Eurozone. Scholars Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart put the figure at 90%.

Again, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 105%, as stated, and heading higher. Under any standard, the U.S. is at the point where more debt produces less growth rather than more. This is one more reason why the Trump infrastructure spending plan will not produce the hoped for growth. And if infrastructure is funded privately, you’ll need tools and user fees to pay the bondholders, which is just another form of tax increase.

There’s almost no way Trump’s policies can supply the stimulus the market is pricing in. The Dow Jones index peaked on Jan. 26, 2017, one day after cracking the mythical 20,000 mark. It’s now trading around 19,900. The downhill trend may continue and get steeper soon.

Productivity has stalled out in recent months. Economists are not sure why. It could be due to lack of investment by business, or that workers are not being trained in useful skills, or that everyone is spending too much time on social media. Whatever the cause, productivity is flat.

Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.9%, below expectations — the final chapter on the worst year of U.S. growth since 2011 when the economy was still healing from the global financial crisis. The strong dollar is a major headwind to growth, along with flat labor force participation and weak productivity growth.

Growth in a major economy is simply the sum of increases in the labor force plus increases in productivity. Think about it. How many people are working and what is the output per worker? That’s it; that’s all there is. The reality is that the workforce is not growing.

Labor force participation is near 40-year lows and is expected to decline further for demographic reasons. Birthrates have never been this low since the Great Depression. The U.S. used to get a labor force lift from immigration, but that might dry up because of Trump’s policies. We’ll have to wait and see.

A flat labor force plus flat productivity equals a flat economy, or almost zero nominal growth. That’s reality.

kong and rickards

                                                        How will this situation be resolved?

Either growth will rebound based on “animal spirits” and the Trump stimulus working better than expected or markets will collapse once they realize the growth is not coming. By “collapse,” I mean a violent stock market correction, a falling dollar and major rallies in bonds and gold. We expect the latter.

Financial crises are not mainly about the business cycle. They’re about investor psychology, sudden shocks and the instability of the financial system. Right now investors are skittish, numerous shocks are waiting to happen and the system is highly unstable due to overleverage and nontransparency.

Despite Trump’s best efforts and positive policies, a collapse could happen any day unless radical steps are taken to prevent it — such as breaking up big banks and banning derivatives. I’ve been warning about this for a while, but now mainstream economists see the danger too. Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, for example, sees a stock market crash coming that could be worse than 1929 or 2000. I hope he’s wrong.

The problem with a financial panic is that panicked investors don’t care if the president is a Democrat or a Republican; they just want their money back. The same dynamic applies to natural disasters like tsunamis and earthquakes.

Once the disaster starts, the dynamics have a life of their own and don’t care if the victims are liberals or conservatives. Everyone gets hurt just the same. I’m not hoping for it, but this is a lesson Trump may learn the hard way.

Above I said collapse means a violent stock market correction, a falling dollar and major rallies in bonds and gold. I expect the latter. The long-term trends favor gold if U.S. growth continues disappoint.

The strong dollar story can’t last, so it won’t. The Trump administration has clearly signaled that the day of the strong dollar is over. When you see a coordinated attack on the dollar from the White House, the Treasury and the Fed, you can bet the dollar will weaken. That means a higher dollar price for gold.

The dollar may get one last boost from a Fed rate hike in March, but after that, even the Fed will acknowledge that they got it wrong again and start another easing cycle with happy talk and forward guidance.

For now, investors should not stand in front of a moving train. Keep cash ready and be prepared to move into gold, bonds and the euro. In fact, it’s not too soon to leg into those positions now.

Instead of watching the tape or short-term trends, my advice is to stay focused on the long-term trends. That’s how you’ll make the most money and preserve wealth in adversity.

kong and rickards

 
                                             – Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning
                                                                            Who is James Rickards?

Don’t Panic – There Is Time To Prepare

These things take time so…let’s just take a minute and re group.

The entire blog / financial community at large is pretty much sitting at a stand still, with a couple of “ridiculous” factors and circumstances in play. Get a load of this….March 15th is not only the DAY the debt ceiling “freeze” does exactly that – but ALSO the day the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates?? Can you wrap your head around that? Can you?

The dichotomy here is unprecedented. I see the debt ceiling biz being completely and totally “blacked out” in the main stream media, as it could very likely lead to government shutdown, as well as some pretty “snappy headlines out there” when the world at large is again reminded….The United States is again 100% flat broke.

I would assume “the powers that be” will keep things lofty moving into the 15th, then regardless of an interest rate hike or not….you’d have to expect our “long-awaited sell off / correction” to start, which will likely take us well past May ( as I also feel that SELL IN MAY will be in effect this year ).

In a broad sense I’d be looking to put some protection in place…start raising cash for a much better time and place to “jump back in”.

There is very likely one more  push higher later this year ( and it could very well be a whopper ) so maybe July/Aug would be a great time to grab that cash…..and put it back to use moving into the fall.

EUR longs looking good. NUGT pissing me off.

Forex_Kong

              Forex_Kong

Dow Jones – Over 2000 Points Above 200 SMA

I can’t bear to watch.

See the green area on RSI – How long it’s been overbought? See the distance DOWN to the red line ( 200 Moving Average ) See the “rolling hills” of the MACD ( useless indicator anyway ) as price on the chart is so much higher…yet the near term “rolling hill” so much lower than the previous. Divergence baby – Huge divergence.

Even a correction down to the 50 MA will wipe any and all profits that anyone “envisions” prior to actually realizing them – and pushing the sell button.

This is the blow off top. How long she goes? Who cares! Just be sure to get out alive.

 

Dow Jones – 2000 Over 200 SMA