You get the message. This is setting up to be one of the largest scale moves ( downward ) we will have seen in quite some time. As suggested many, many moons ago…I see the Japanese Nikkei as putting in a “lower high” on very large time frames. This is the market that leads. USD/JPY bounce is gonna flop hard.
I see SP 500 / Dow / Risk Appetite topping out with “near to all time highs” or even “all time highs” with a large-scale / major correction to follow. Can you understand that the investment world at large is “scared sh%tless” with respect to the current geopolitical situation? Let alone the U.S Gov gone broke and now nearing “shutdown” over the weekend.
Remember that pesky “debt ceiling” I was ranting about some months ago? Of course you don’t well…..if these boneheads in Washington don’t get their heads together over the next few days….Government shutdown.
Oh the irony. Trump needs billions for the wall? ( never gonna happen ) and promising tax cuts / infrastructure spending? ( never gonna happen ). The dems and repubs can’t get together on anything “of value” but they suuuuuuure can when it comes time to increase the debt ceiling right? Unreal.
I could just as well jump on this now as this is so telegraphed / so glaring. Short risk. Short USD. Short humanity.
We’re headed lower FAST, and with my profits in gold/ short USD via Forex – I will purchase enough graphene to build my elevator to space.
This set’s up time and time again when you’ve got the timing right. Gold is going to complete its correction here very shortly, and there are several “juicy trades” on deck. Every “wanna be stock guy” on the planet has this chart / set up on his screen.
Something interesting though…
The U.S Dollar “has bounced” against a large number of currencies but “vewy very quietwy” as The Euro has bounced EVEN more! This is not something you see very often and ( in my view ) is suggestive of some very VERY SERIOUS currency repositioning.
This is setting up for “crash like / waterfall action” in USD – and I would expect U.S Equities to follow.
I “could enter as early as Friday as this is a slam dunk. Risk gonna come off HARD next week.
Here is what you do:
Wait until you see gold bottom / dollar top. You need to “get ready and wait” as this one’s gonna help you pay for that big vacation you’ve been planning.
The FOMC meeting is early next week so I would not be surprised if we just bounce around ’til then. Get ready and wait…I’ll post specifics over coming days but this is the plan. This is gonna be a doozy!
I’ve sat out a few days and missed some pretty decent action in USD – as the slide continues.
This will continue for much longer, so I’m going to take a day er two here to let it breathe – then jump back in on the short side. The U.S Dollar is attempting to find a bottom, not only in an immediate sense ( having absolutely no luck ) but more so in an “intermediate / medium term” sense. Let me explain…
When you see a continued pattern of “lower lows and lower highs” on a daily chart / time frame you’ve got to understand….this is no small time trend. We are talking about weeks and week of a given asset falling lower, then lower than the previous low, then lower than “that” low until finally a much larger “intermediate cycle” completes. You dig?
The U.S Dollar will bounce here and likely bring in a large number of traders assuming this is a bottom. This IS NOT even close. Look for a decent bounce here on the 1H as a great place to re enter short.
That’s all I’ve got for today folks as I am busy busy with “yet another venture” so…watch for the bounce here in “risk in general” and get your levels checked/locked and loaded on all correlating pairs – set for another round of “short use trades”.
Let’s put this in perspective first.
You live in a tiny “tiny” bubble. You see the world through the broken lens of your local media, and can’t imagine a world where “fake news” actually exists. Wait…..you actually believe the news on your local news channel?
Aside from the human interest stories ( often highlighting people with their dogs…or more often than not – people “crying the blues” about how hard they have it ) your local news serves only as a simple extension of the “administration” and the message you are “required to view” – short of actually developing opinions/ideas of your own.
Television shepherds to living room sheep.
Face it. You have absolutely no clue what is going on, short of tuning in each night with your Cheetos and Budweiser in hand…having the local “news gal” spew crap ’til you finally switch to the game.
The world is moving much faster than you can imagine. Currencies tell all – T.V’s suck.
Trade wise…..hmmm…….an interesting junction although in all – really not that interesting.
Commodities “in general” are up against a bit of resistance here so – I could suggest a few things.
Commodities At Resistance
- Take profits in Gold as it’s been a hoot ( not to say the long term play is 100% totally still in play ).
- Take stock of the current geo political situation and ask yourself..truly…..is this really the time to go “all in” on the long side? Don’t be a dumb ass.
The powers that be aren’t quite ready to switch the algo’s from “buy to sell” in a macro sense, but in all honesty….even a run towards the highs doesn’t really amount to much.
Sometimes “no trade” is the best trade…and I’m not suggesting anyone get’s all giddy bout stocks but….we’ve got war! We’ve got war now so…..what does any American President do when his ratings slip past the red line??
You betcha…..time to really the troops! Time to get that ‘Merican blood pumping! We’re going to war! Let’s just start a war!
So obvious….so “cliche”.
I’m in cash….and will stay that way for at least a day er two. You know where I’ll be should anything “significant” actually come to play.
Bang on the money.
I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.
How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?
April 11th I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.
It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.
As most of you already know, I follow The Japanese Nikkei more closely than American Markets as its my firm belief that we will see larger scale moves reflected their first.
The Nikkei has been trading completely flat for a whopping 16 weeks now ( 4 months flat as a pancake ) at levels that are starting to suggest that “a lower high has already been made” on a larger scale time frame.
Let me show you.
Here is the “weekly” chart of The Nikkei clearly showing the 16 weeks of flat/range trading which, unto itself isn’t really that big a deal.
Nikkei Trading Flat For Weeks
Now if we “zoom out” even further things start to look a bit more interesting as we start to put this “congestion zone” into perspective.
Here is the “monthly” chart of The Nikkei.
Nikkei Monthly Chart
It’s my feelings that The Nikkei actually topped “mid 2015” and that we’ve spent the entire last year and a half in “distribution mode” – with respect to the continued pump in U.S Equity prices. Japan’s stock market has been unable to share in the Kool-aide drinking, as cheaply printed Yen has flooded over to America, been converted to USD and used to buy stocks.
This is why you see the incredible correlation with U.S stocks and the currency pair USD/JPY ( bet you where wondering about that! ) as the pair rises when stocks are purchased and falls as stocks are sold.
I don’t see The Nikkei reaching for new highs but rather (and more likely) breaking thru support and moving along to create a very large / significant “lower high” on a monthly time frame. Things could get quite ugly from there.
This does not bode well for the “risk on trade”.
An old high school girlfriend of mine had a grandpa. This guy was sharp as a tack.You just knew it the second you met him. Words rolled off his tongue, math was a joke. He could sing / play the piano and was outright hilarious on almost every occasion that we met.
You know what he owed it to? His secret? His “super power”?
Cross word puzzles. Yup……good old run of the mill crossword puzzles.
When you’ve got a trade environment such as this ( struggling to move higher, yet refusing to go down ) go find something to learn! You’ve got the time! The charts / stocks and currencies aren’t going anywhere. Everything will “be there” when you get back.
Japanese candle sticks for one…..go study Elliot Wave Theory. Take a crack at Gann’s Studies or “get wild” and go have a look at Lunar Trading and the connections with human sentiment. Pull up some charts and start throwing new indicators on them / evaluate what they can or can’t do for your trading. Go read a report…..or pick up a musical instrument for Petes sake! Do something else!
This stuff will drive you bat sh#t crazy if you let it. Trust me…..I know. I have trouble sitting in a room with an overhead fan ( as I tend to look for cycles / counts in the rotation) and god help me if there might be a tap dripping, or a dishwasher running at the same time. I start pitting the rhythms against each other looking for patterns etc….its nuts.
Sitting on the sidelines is healthy as….I do far more “observing” than I actually do trading these days – and it pays off big time.
Get away from the computer more, and you will see your trading improve – I guarantee it.
I too will be taking part….but of course – in my own “creative way”. Even at that “very cautiously”.
The U.S Dollar as well U.S Equities will now put in the long-awaited “swing low” ( if you don’t know what that is yet….please research swing trading ) so for those of you interested in pressing the long side in stocks – now would be your time. I have no individual stock suggestions as the vast majority are so ridiculously bloated, with valuations that ( to me at least ) make very little sense but….you can’t knock “retail euphoria”.
The larger question at hand begs….
Will the next leg in “risk” reach for higher highs before hitting the skids? Or……will we fall short / put in a “lower high” and roll on over for the larger scale “plunge” expected in coming months?
The current geo-political landscape isn’t exactly what I would call “stable” but how many times has that been the case where U.S Equities simply shrug it off…and the funny money just keeps flowing.
I’m immune to earthly headline / media disease and rely only on my “inter-dimensional time shifting machine” to guide me. I see retail money……must get retail money…must have MORE RETAIL MONEY! So……there it is in a nutshell.
Buyers beware. Stay tight. Remain vigilant. But feel free to jump out on the playing field and take a kick at the can.
What’s the worst that can happen?
The 3x leveraged ETF’s have just not performed during this last waterfall in USD so I’m booking out of NUGT here at 9.86
The way things are setting up we will get another fantastic buying opportunity once The U.S Dollar gets its inevitable bounce out-of-the-way here in the next few days. Once USD puts in a daily cycle low….we can really only expect about 6-8 days UP before she rolls over for another devastating leg down.
I am sitting 100% cash as of this moment. Not a single penny on the table.
Can you imagine how good that feels?
Ugly in Japan right now ( Nikkei now down -323 ) ….so you can likely look for a pretty tough open there in ‘Merica tomorrow morning. Yes that’s right…..Japan’s stock market opens while most of you are still “drinkin buds ‘n throwin horseshoes” out back yer mamma’s trailer. Sunday night baby!
Sunday night is when “we” start putting in the work.
The U.S Dollar continues to get absolutely demolished on the back of Trump’s “healthcare beat down”. You get it right? Markets are recognizing very quickly that poor Mr. Trump isn’t gonna get jack shit done in Washington ( as this was his first real attempt ) and that future tax cuts / infrastructure spending and all the other horse shit promised ( no fault to the Donald on that though…. ) will inevitably fail. Not gonna happen. Impossible. So…….
QE5 is coming to America. Sooner than you think, and it doesn’t have a single thing to do with “who” sits at the helm.
USD and “risk trade” works like this:
The U.S Dollar is incredibly late putting in a “daily cycle low” and will likely do so very soon. Not to say we don’t get further “waterfall action” first but….I’m actually more interested in “the next leg down”.
USD Failed Daily Cycle
Now that we have what we called a “failed daily cycle” we can count on the next one doing the same ( as suggested months ago ) so……you wait for a daily swing low – then max 6-8 days bounce ( in this case likely less ) for re – entry on the next full daily cycle expecting it to go EVEN LOWER.
This will coincide with all the same currency correlations I’ve hammered you with for years now, so keep your eye on JPY as well EUR and AUD for some “massive trades” coming soon.
Gold is…..well gold so……fear = gold up and we’ve got “just a wee bit of that” going on now no?