It’s absolutely amazing how easy it is, to allow the mainstream media to influence your trading.
We see the headlines, we hear the talking heads go on and on… and a part of us just “defaults” to accepting the daily banter as “the way it is” or……just assuming these people must know right? They’re on T.V. and I’m just sitting here in my trailer.
I also advocate doing as much research as you can and formulating your own investment views, and perhaps even more importantly – sticking to the basics!
How about the age-old principle of SUPPLY and DEMAND!? Remember that one? It’s a good one!
Let’s take OIL as an example.
Oil Around 45 Bucks = Low
You know….oil – the single most important commodity on Earth (or a least to the degree that puny humans have based their entire global economy on it). One would really never have to question it’s “demand” and from what we all are led to believe – the supply shouldn’t really be in question either.
Then factor in global population growth and any number of other horrible / consumer related facts and figures and there you have it.
Long term demand (in today’s day and age) will easily counter this short-term oversupply, as humans will consume this sludge until the last possible drop has been squeezed from this planet.
The support area is very near, so you start doing a bit of research NOW, and keep the price of oil on your daily trades / watch list.
Find a couple decent plays and set the trap.
Let the price come to you.
Everyone needs to take this “shot across the bow” and the “survival of said shot” – to count their lucky stars. Talk about complacent eh? Damn! I bet a whole lotta folks just got 100% cleaned out!
I don’t mean YOU….I mean the market, and it’s participants “in general”. Everyone still not willing to accept how “flimsy” and “phony” things truly are. How soon we forget.
Gone are the company buy backs…..now the Fed “tightening not loosening” monetary policy, guidance for 2019 all pointing down ( these are the companies you invest in TELLING YOU – we aren’t gonna hit the mark in 2019) and then of course….the “incredibly significant” trade war / tensions building with China.
These stocks don’t exist in a bubble right?
There is nowhere to hid when the “entire planet” (or at least those institutions with large enough positions to affect markets) turn from buy to sell . NOTHING survives.
So hey…..this time around we catch a break.This time.
The Fed meetings get underway tomorrow. This is everything now.
The idea of interest rates climbing higher is the absolute foundation for this sell off. You get it right? You realize how leveraged to the freakin balls these big trading houses / investment firms / wall st. gangsters are? Another basis point higher, and that nice new house out in the Hampton’s you’ve double mortgaged and now taken additional loans against gonna be the banks soon. You don’t own shit.
So here’s how it goes down.
- Fed holds out and doesn’t make the hike = markets are back off to the races for a final shot to the highs. USD tanks / final roll over / another fantastic short entry – post fed. Gold and commods final bottom. Crypto as well.
- Fed makes hike ( as it’s already priced in fok……look at the slide ) but TALKs down the next few = markets are back off to the races for a final shot to the highs. USD tanks / final roll over / another fantastic short entry – post fed. Gold and commods final bottom. Crypto as well.
There it is.
You’ve got one more shot at the highs, before May of 2019 and it’s time to get down in your bunker.
Buy water and gas…..buy crypto / silver n gold, and consider moving inland.
There’s more than a little problem up north, and it’s coming a lot sooner than 2030.
Stocks have almost completed their “intermediate cycle low” so you “holders of paper” only need to wait another day er two / catch your breath / don’t freak out.
You have grown “so complacent here” that these “few down days” have you on pins and needles, debating whether you should simply just “sell” before you’re left with nothing.
You sell on green candles traders ( some days ago? )…… and you buy on red.
None the less…..we are still very much so in a right translated / daily uptrend in stocks – with this cycle extending to like…..38-40 days? Wow….a long one….but now near completion.
Dow Nears Support
This is still a very strong uptrend – with an “intermediate cycle decline” now near complete. The test of support area ( as seen by the black line ) looking good.
I can only assume the next leg higher starts like……tomorrow.
Bitcoin slowly moving up from the proposed low at 6400.00
Gold = flat ( who really cares right? )
USD – Crater on deck – as suggested.
Hey all – you know your Japanese candlesticks well right?
What are you seeing here?
Heed The Wick – USD Done
Short USD at will, or if more responsible…..wait for a daily “swing high” where you see a candle such as this followed by a daily candle that closes LOWER. Then short BELOW that low.
Please Read: I’ve highlighted the significant bits.
kong and rickards
Jim Rickards – Markets Are Experiencing Cognitive Dissonance
I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.
Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.
The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.
Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.
Boom……. thar she be.
Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….
So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.
I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).
While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The two are now almost at par.
Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?
That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.
The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.
I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.
Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.
We are very close here folks.
Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.
There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.
Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.
The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade. These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.
They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.
The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.
The real-time trades in currencies, gold and silver as well U.S Equities, weekly reporting and daily commentary can be found at the members site: Forex Trading With Kong.
Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).
Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”
I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.
I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?
Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.
Little chance of that.
Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.
No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.
More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong
A very large “gap up” here in the wee hours Sunday night before markets really kick off, and the U.S Dollar continues to surge higher against the E.U currencies.
One can’t imagine a single USD bear left on the planet.
Exactly as it should be…. before the thing tanks.
It’s amazing to me how public perception continues to view USD’s recent surge as “some indication” of a stronger U.S Economy.
How on Earth can The U.S Governement ( as well the crooks at The Fed – a private held bank ) handle the enormous contribution to the “serviceable debt load” ( remember The U.S is “officially broke”, with a continued rise in the “allowable debt ceiling” now just a given ) brought about by a stronger U.S Dollar?
It’s impossible. The Fed mandate is to “kill USD” at whatever costs, as to keep these balls in the air as long as they possibly can.
A strong U.S Dollar “kills” the U.S economy! As exports tank, and the amount/value of outstanding sovereign debt balloons “past” the balloon we already know to be.
Find me an “economist” who can make the arguement that “a strong U.S Dollar is good for America” and I’ll eat my hat.
A strong U.S Dollar represents everything the U.S Gov and The Federal Reserve fear most so….I encourage you to start looking for signs of reversal – as opposed to getting to excited.