Stocks have almost completed their “intermediate cycle low” so you “holders of paper” only need to wait another day er two / catch your breath / don’t freak out.
You have grown “so complacent here” that these “few down days” have you on pins and needles, debating whether you should simply just “sell” before you’re left with nothing.
You sell on green candles traders ( some days ago? )…… and you buy on red.
None the less…..we are still very much so in a right translated / daily uptrend in stocks – with this cycle extending to like…..38-40 days? Wow….a long one….but now near completion.
Dow Nears Support
This is still a very strong uptrend – with an “intermediate cycle decline” now near complete. The test of support area ( as seen by the black line ) looking good.
I can only assume the next leg higher starts like……tomorrow.
Bitcoin slowly moving up from the proposed low at 6400.00
Gold = flat ( who really cares right? )
USD – Crater on deck – as suggested.
Hey all – you know your Japanese candlesticks well right?
What are you seeing here?
Heed The Wick – USD Done
Short USD at will, or if more responsible…..wait for a daily “swing high” where you see a candle such as this followed by a daily candle that closes LOWER. Then short BELOW that low.
Please Read: I’ve highlighted the significant bits.
kong and rickards
Jim Rickards – Markets Are Experiencing Cognitive Dissonance
I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.
Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.
The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.
Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.
Boom……. thar she be.
Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….
So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.
I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).
While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The two are now almost at par.
Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?
That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.
The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.
I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.
Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.
We are very close here folks.
Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.
There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.
Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.
The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade. These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.
They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.
The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.
The real-time trades in currencies, gold and silver as well U.S Equities, weekly reporting and daily commentary can be found at the members site: Forex Trading With Kong.
Again….you generally need to be “ahead of these moves” in order to take advantage ( note yesterdays post- please scroll down ).
Gold, & Silver Jump As Citi Sells All USD Positions Fearing “Squeeze”
I envision a time ( in the not so distant future ) when “all things American” ( USD, Stocks and most certainly the bonds ) are sold.
I’m sure you’ve noticed the correlation of USD strength = U.S Equities strength so…..one would have to imagine the complete and total “inverse relationship” as well right?
Or they just all keep going up forever. RIght.
Little chance of that.
Other than the few short USD positions already in play I’m more or less “cash ready” for the large positions “long JPY” ( against most every other currency on the planet ) kicking in here soon.
No shorts in SP 500 as of yet.
More at the Members Site: Forex Trading With Kong
A very large “gap up” here in the wee hours Sunday night before markets really kick off, and the U.S Dollar continues to surge higher against the E.U currencies.
One can’t imagine a single USD bear left on the planet.
Exactly as it should be…. before the thing tanks.
It’s amazing to me how public perception continues to view USD’s recent surge as “some indication” of a stronger U.S Economy.
How on Earth can The U.S Governement ( as well the crooks at The Fed – a private held bank ) handle the enormous contribution to the “serviceable debt load” ( remember The U.S is “officially broke”, with a continued rise in the “allowable debt ceiling” now just a given ) brought about by a stronger U.S Dollar?
It’s impossible. The Fed mandate is to “kill USD” at whatever costs, as to keep these balls in the air as long as they possibly can.
A strong U.S Dollar “kills” the U.S economy! As exports tank, and the amount/value of outstanding sovereign debt balloons “past” the balloon we already know to be.
Find me an “economist” who can make the arguement that “a strong U.S Dollar is good for America” and I’ll eat my hat.
A strong U.S Dollar represents everything the U.S Gov and The Federal Reserve fear most so….I encourage you to start looking for signs of reversal – as opposed to getting to excited.
I feel I’ve gotten a little soft here during the past few weeks.
In not being as “overly thrilled” with the market as I normally am – the blogging has suffered as……if you don’t have anything good to say well……you know.
This tiny blip / risk aversion based on “at least two” of the black swans we spoke of last week restores some faith in the fact that markets are still markets, people are still people, and emotions are still emotions.
The Central Banks do all they can to lull you to sleep but in reality are relatively powerless against the “true forces” of fear and greed – where human emotion will always take the front seat.
Take for example the massive printing efforts in Japan – propping up the Nikkei. It’s all going to look pretty ridiculous as “only a matter of days” can erase “1000’s of points” in a heartbeat. Imagine when things really turn? ( as they will ).
Russia has put Obama back in his bunker with suggestion ( if not action already ) dumping U.S Treasuries as well US Dollar reserves alongside their good buddy China – essentially holding the capability to “level the U.S economy” without the use of a single missile. You gotta love that eh?
As suggested earlier Putin will not let these tyrants in Washington get their grubby little mits on Ukraine without a fight….and rightfully so (if you understood anything at all of the importance of Ukraine, and its massive network of natural gas pipelines that feed Europe).
Obama can kiss my ass. He’s beyond desperate, and essentially “toying with war” as Russia merely protects what it already has.
Me…..I’ve got important things to take care of over the next couple of days – “very” important things…so I will look for WWIII to start Monday at the earliest ………..and “never” at the latest.
Have a good weekend all – keep your eyes peeled late Sunday.
Short AUD – killer, and the long list of gold and silver miners entered “weeks ago” doesn’t hurt either.
If you can believe it – the U.S Dollar has spent the entire last week “still hovering” near a well-known area of support, showing absolutely no interest in “getting off its ass” and making a move higher.
As forex markets have a tendency to move sideways for extended periods of time, this should come as no real surprise but in having held a number of small positions ( almost averaged out now ) “long USD” for some time now, I’m only giving it a couple more days before just “going with my gut” and likely pulling a “stop n reverse” – getting back on the short side of this dud.
The overall weakness and lack of any real “life” suggests ( as I’ve now suggested for some days ) that regardless of any “near term pop” – USD looks pretty much set on breaking support and continuing on its merry way – into the basement.
Considering the lack of movement ( in either direction ) scratching a trade that has consumed nearly two full weeks of trading doesn’t put a smile on my face. Not at all. If you consider the time and effort, and in turn the “lack of reward” you can easily see why we call this “work”.
I’ll give this dud a couple more days to “prove itself” but as it stands…..I’m a hair away from flat-out “stop and reverse”, wherein the probability of an actual “waterfall” exists.
It’s make it or break it time for USD. 4 days Max.