With the recent purchase of a new Ipad 5 and subsequent purchase of the popular game “angry birds” (I bought the outer space version) it’s fair to say that my trading has suffered as a result . Now , with consideration of “going pro” it’s unlikely I will be able to commit the hours necessary, as well focus on trading so – angry birds it is.
Hardly…….but a real hoot all the same.
Market wise it appears that once again we are offered new opportunities to short USD on it’s rise over the past few days. I see absolutely no fundamental change here whatsoever, and as boring / repetitive as it may seem – I will again look to load short USD against a miriad of the majors.
Zooming out a touch, gold is still flat as a pancake and of particular interest the “TLT” 20 years treasury bond fund sits at a precarious position. A falling dollar as well falling bond prices can most certainly suggest money flowing into stocks (as we’ve been seeing) but is also reflective of higher interest rates, and in turn – pressure on borrowing and tougher times ahead for corporations.
When corporations suffer……stocks sell hard.Watch the bonds, watch the dollar and in series – stocks are the last to go.
Im back at it here full time as always everyone. Let the games begin!
Good to see you back.
Right on………glad to be back at it!
Here is my 4H AUD/USD chart.
I’m not to sure I would be long this pair?
Your the man though 🙂
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Hi John – Its been an interesting couple days /even weeks with the AUD/USD and a few levels where tested a touch “lower” than I would have anticipated considering my expected “dollar weakness”.
What I can say is…..characteristically – both NZD/USD and AUD can remain “irrational” until a larger USD move is almost over…almost like at times….they are the last to go – but then explode!
I too have been a bit jumpy with them…and have been surprised to see them range moreso than trend consistantly.
I still want to give them a chance as fundamentally they’ve really got one place to go against USD – and that’s up.
GBP/USD testing resistance.
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John – sorry…..I should mention.
The way this blog is currently set up – external links are not permitted. I spent a good 8 years starting / running my first company specializing in “search engine positioning”. This blog serves as an experiment in the works here for the first 6 months, as there will be no external links.
I so appreciate your efforts in posting charts – and need to consider a work around.
USD/JPY should find some support here on the hourly. Having a nibble thanks to Kongs twitter post.
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Loving the pips in the USD/JPY trade.
I didnt take the USD/CAD trade, but the movement on a mixed bag of housing starts/unemployment data is baffling.
It actually looked like the data was leaked early, but on seeing the numbers, it looked like a pre meditated move no matter what.
That damn USD/CAD has been a real pain – and frankly not responding/trading as well as I’d expected recently. I keep poking away at it – in seeing levels below like .96 and thinking any day it could easily fall out of the range – but day after day after day…it hangs on up here around parity.
I will just as easily ditch it here soon enough – if I don’t get some movement. I hate dead money.
And yes….a nicely timed entry there in USD/JPY and some extra beer money on the weekend!
2 AM here in Australia.
Looking to close USD/JPY for a profit and move on to next week.
Good luck all.
Hey Kong – with the data coming out of Canada today looks to have impacted to par – I am suprised with the AUDUSD par with the data coming out of China… A weaker eur should have helped the aussie as well but appears to not be the case.. Metals continue to run in a nowhere….
Hey Schmed…..things are more than “odd” these past few days to say the least – as ya….AUD just spinning it’s wheels. As mentioned below in a prior comment – these guys sometimes “save it til the last momment” on the move – so…if you are still of similar thinking that the USD will again turn downward…well…..patience, patience, patience.
My work suggests that the USD could “hang up here” another day or two max – and even at that…these levels are solid SOLID resistance in my view.
Another consideration….as with my “blow off top” scenario…..we literally see a massive / fast n furious move in both PM’s (up) and related currencies “spike” – with a big fall in USD (catching all traders on wither side flat footed….and then chasing) – only to be followed buy a super big swing / sell off…..equally catching em all on the downside….as markets more or less “peak” and then grind away.
In the back of my mind this is actually what I am planning for…so positions are smaller, and expectations are lower as well. This scenario creates the largest profits for the big boys…and roasts the largest majority of “home gamers” so……in my eyes…isn’t that what Wall street will do?
Kong – thanks for the response & agree, I am still of the mindset for a USD wash-out. Frankly a little surprised it’s bounce held over the last few days.
I have been monitoring a 5 weeks squeeze in the DXY completing the 6 week today, & the momentum is pointing towards the negative side currently. The last time we had a similar set-up was back March/12 to May 12 running about 8 weeks.
Once the squeeze fires I suspect we will see the expected movement in the DXY – for now we just have to wait….. & yes patience is key.
Agree, a fleecing is fast approaching – perhaps this is what we are seeing now…. A flush in the very near future and then the DXY squeeze fires doing a complete 360 throwing the majority off track and chasing.
The other play would be for this DXY squeeze to fire over the next few days ( which is what I suspect to happen) a very Hugh rally in the market/PM’s and then the Hugh flush across the boards as Wall Street’s cleans house on the majority of “ Home Gamers “ & some general market participants.
Check out business insider – Hugh vix put bet over the next 60 days….. will be interesting how this plays out. I ‘d post the link but the site is not excepting them as mentions in above posts.
As usual – good exchange of ideas and concepts here – with no noise relative to outside markets activities.
Cheers Schmed,
A great look at things Scmed – fantastic analysis.
I’d longer term plans to be sitting in cash around the middle of March at the absolute latest regardless so….for the most part I am concentrating on the few pairs that still present “simple trades” and leaving the rest for their turns.
Ill post more on it tonight…but my shorter term tech has “wimpered it’s first signal” as to a change in JPY so….this will not come without broad scale market implications across many asset classes – so my eyes are open for a turn.
Otherwise….smaller positions and less expectation of anything “mindblowing” keeps a guy humble and outta the way…considering how well the last few months have gone. I will continue in said direction until flat….then look at the bearish possibilities.