Every trader has their own “favorite type” of technical analysis to apply when viewing charts, and that’s great. However it’s been my experience that having only one “go to analysis tool” is generally not enough to get an accurate read on things – technically speaking.
You need to see things from several perspectives and apply your knowledge of at least a couple different methods of analysis in order to make sense of it all.
I follow price action almost exclusively – and have very little in the way of other “indicators” on my charts short of the “Kongdicator” (my proprietary short term tech tool) which “does” essentially follow pure price action.
Japanese candles are a very large part of my “graphical / visual” evaluation of markets action as with a simple glance, one is able to deduce:
- The high of the given time frame
- The low of the given time frame
- The opening price of the given time frame
- The closing price of the given time frame
*and even more importantly – the “difference / variance” in price over time – purely in a visual context.
So when you see a candle ( your eyes get so used to identifying them over time) that suggest to you “hey! in the last 4 hours price has jumped dramatically (or perhaps the inverse) – you take notice!
Google’em – there are piles of excellent websites outlining Japanese Candles – and how to use them!
Building Your Multi-Layered Technical Analysis Framework
Combining Japanese Candlesticks with Market Structure
While Japanese candlesticks give you that immediate visual snapshot of price action, they become exponentially more powerful when combined with key support and resistance levels. A hammer candlestick means nothing in isolation – but show me that same hammer forming at a major weekly support level on EUR/USD, and now we’re talking about a high-probability reversal setup. The beauty lies in the convergence of signals. When you’re analyzing major pairs like GBP/USD or USD/JPY, look for those critical moments where candlestick patterns align with significant market structure. A shooting star at resistance carries weight. A doji at a 50% Fibonacci retracement level demands attention. This isn’t about cramming your charts full of lines and levels – it’s about identifying the few key areas where price has historically reacted and watching how candlestick patterns behave in those zones.
Reading Market Sentiment Through Candle Bodies and Wicks
The real goldmine in candlestick analysis isn’t just the patterns everyone memorizes from textbooks – it’s understanding what the body-to-wick ratios are telling you about market psychology. A long upper wick on a daily candle in USD/CAD tells you sellers stepped in aggressively at higher levels. A series of small-bodied candles with long wicks in both directions? That’s indecision, and indecision often precedes explosive moves. Pay particular attention to the relationship between consecutive candles. When you see diminishing candle bodies after a strong trend move, you’re witnessing momentum decay in real-time. This is especially crucial in volatile pairs like GBP/JPY where sentiment can shift rapidly. The size of the candle body relative to recent price action gives you insight into whether buying or selling pressure is genuine or just noise.
Time Frame Confluence: The Multi-Chart Advantage
Here’s where most traders fall short – they get tunnel vision on their preferred time frame. If you’re trading off 4-hour charts, you absolutely must know what’s happening on the daily and weekly levels. A beautiful bullish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour means very little if the daily chart shows you’re hitting major resistance. Similarly, that bearish pin bar on your 1-hour EUR/GBP chart might be nothing more than noise if the 4-hour trend remains strongly bullish. The professional approach is to identify your primary trend on higher time frames, then use lower time frames for precise entry and exit points. When candlestick patterns align across multiple time frames – say a shooting star on both the 4-hour and daily charts of AUD/USD – that’s when you’ve got a setup worth risking capital on.
Volume Confirmation and Market Context
Candlestick patterns without volume context are like reading a book with half the pages missing. While retail forex doesn’t provide true volume data, you can use tick volume or volume indicators to gauge participation levels. A reversal candlestick pattern on light volume is suspect. The same pattern on heavy volume demands respect. Beyond volume, always consider the broader market context. A bullish hammer in USD/CHF during a major risk-off event in global markets is fighting an uphill battle. Conversely, that same hammer during a risk-on environment with positive U.S. economic data has the wind at its back. Central bank policy, economic releases, and global sentiment all influence how candlestick patterns play out. The best technical setups occur when your candlestick analysis aligns with the fundamental backdrop. This doesn’t mean you need to become a fundamental analyst – it means being aware of the major themes driving currency markets and ensuring your technical analysis isn’t contradicting obvious fundamental forces.
so quiet .. emm still got 3 % while AUD/USD go down then up, while USDX down up down up. Bumpy road indeed. Congrat for whoever celebrate independence day.
Yes it’s craaaaazy out there and tomorrow will bring even more craziness!
Go easy…..let the news hit – then let the market settle / retrace / find it’s footing.
USD has now almost retraced 100% of the last major down move – UNREAL!
.. thanks for remainder.. find myself lucky to find your blog sir
Dollar very strong. Any signals from the Kongdicator? I supposed if you determine your thesis is wrong, you will get out?
Hi Alex.
He he he……it’s funny as…….very strong dollar “spike” indeed – but against what? NZD now only at the bottom of the range as well AUD and CAD virtually flat so……we need to be careful here.
If you’ve only been trading EUR then you get wacked! Even that….looks to have hit suppport from months running.
So! I’m looking to just add. It’s far too late to consider switching teams.
Alex – we’re not on the Kongdictor now as – I usually manage to stay out of sideways action, but in this case – entered trades ( so small it didn’t matter ) all knowing this might happen ( as per prior posts outlining several possible outcomes ) and then “bang in your face!” an even larger “unexpected” move in the wrong direction so……this does happen from time to time – hence trading small during these volatile times.
If it helps pull a chart of /es SP500 futures and check a 4h – the market has only rallied up to the very obvious downward sloping trendline so…..if correlations still hold – I can’t see any reason to worry at present.
We don’t “bet farms” – we “buy” farms!
Alex!
Im checkin in on you! How you making out?
A pretty positive “day” for those still of the mindset USD is making a turn lower…
I hope you’re postions are alright.