Once again we find that markets have more or less traded flat through the first few days of the week – looking to Thursday’s release of U.S data for the catalyst. I’ve suggest this several times in the past, and again am asking myself “what is the point of even entering a trade these days – if not on / around Thursday?”
This sets up a relatively dangerous dynamic, as that – in the past traders would usually have considered “holding trades” over the weekend a bit of a risk. Well these days, the way things are – you really don’t have a choice. The majority of intraday moves occur in the pre-market now ( before you even get a chance to see them) and now traders are faced with the quandary of entering trades late in the week, and holding through “risk laden” weekend volatility. Talk about a tough trading environment. I’d say the toughest I’ve seen – ever.
USD movement has also held traders hostage early this week, as we teeter on the edge of a breaking point. It’s touch and go here this time, as global concerns over Syria and a handful of other “risk events” have kept us hovering at relatively crucial levels.
I’m flat as a pancake more or less – with a couple “long JPY” trades a few pips in the weeds.
The Nikkei hit suggested resistance last night, and has formed a bit of a reversal but it’s too soon to call it. I imagine we’ll get our move (one way or the other) sometime this morning after U.S data hits the news.
written by F Kong
Steady as she goes captain! I’m also waiting on my USD shorts to gain legs and have placed a few jpy longs belowß current prices. You are so right about thurs being the new trade day, I however don’t fear but relish the weekend Irrationality and gaps that occur. Because of this jpy longs look like a VERY good trade to fill Sundays gap.
USD movement a real grind here, waffling around for days prior then a two day boost and now “waffling around” at this level. My patience was tested days ago, and the thing is still hanging.
It feels like everything is just on hold, as Nikkei / JPY etc show little movement here “post data” as well. EU and UK over and done wilth too so…what’s the hold up?
Kong, when are you going to update your “yearly profits”?
Hey good catch.
I’ll do it now – as little has changed in nearly a full month!
I’ve only missed a 4% addition.
DXY on fire here – re-looking positions very soon…. another look is needed…. strength here seems to be the trend & one cannot fight the MM…. it is what it is….
Its EUR movement, as USD is lower against both AUD and NZD as well flat against CAD.
It’s also suggestive of “a new move in USD “yes ( as we’ve both been expecting here mid Sept! ) although as today stands alone – I’m sittin tight.
Perhaps I’ve got this wrong but I’ve considered that with Japan pretty much in the drivers seat these days “stimulus wise” ( with a program 3X larger than the Fed) my eyes are peeled “ever seas”. The stimulus money is spilling out, and large amounts are obviously subject to “exchange to USD” to get into whatever asset classes are bought/invested in “here”.
Hot money flows out of Japan and into U.S equities – but only to a point, as we see indexes struggling to make new highs. The Nikkei as well is “yet again” bumping into downward sloping trendline resistance ( which has been well respected here thus far ) so…….I am of the mindset that this has about ran it’s course.
U.S Equities “eventually” sell off, into U.S dollars ( from Japanese investors ) and then are repatriated home to JPY.
It doesn’t play out in a “single day” and may be outta wack but but U.S stimulus money just sits on reserve at banks, and buys bonds..and U.S citizens aren’t buying.
I may be way off my rocker but am thinking that JPY will take the “safe haven flows” this next time – and USD will continue to lose it’s appeal as reserve. I should post this as a topic / discussion as – I’d loooooove more feedback!