Ok….so you’ve missed the initial move.
You’ve sat idle, and now worse – tuned in to your local financial news to see “what all the fuss is about”. I can only assume they are telling you to “buy, buy , buy!” and that everything is hunky dory, blah,blah, blah. Please……we know much better than that.
Pull up your charts on pretty much “anything and everything” and zoom in on what’s happened here today. For the most part, nearly every point / buck has been retraced across the board equities wise ( rinsing the entire lot ) while the forex crowd bask in the sunshine of never-ending dollar debasement.
If you want to “get in on the action” you’ll need to be a fairly savvy trader – or at least be willing to take on a bit of risk, on order to take advantage of the continued moves ahead.
Drop down to at least a 1 Hour chart on a pair like USD/CAD for example, and ask yourself – is now the best time to enter? After such a precipitous drop?
Patience young grasshopper.
You now need to apply a bit your “short-term technical know how” in seeing that a larger trend “IS” now clearly established, but that “now” may not be the most opportune time to enter.
Fib retracement levels come to mind – looking at the last move on 1H and considering “how far might this thing retrace” before continuing on its path downward.
A moving average may also provide “some indication” of level where price may normally retrace.
Any way you cut it…..chasing a move almost always results in pain and agony, as “just when you think you’ve got this figured out” – the damn thing shoots off in the opposite direction.
Patience young grasshopper. This “can” be learned. This “will” be learned.
F Kong
( this “F Kong” thing is being included as to see if I can get the boys at Google to recognize me as a credible author).
My Google profile page can be viewed here at: F Kong at Google+
Your crystal ball seems to be working (businessinsider.com/russia-will-continue-to-back-syria-2013-9). Nice work on the short JPY trades. It will be interesting to see if the USD/JPY negates the multi-month breakout — still much more work for the JPY to show that, but definitely looking down in the short run (screencast.com/t/fPfAAIAAePzB). Enjoy your weekend and thanks for the blog.
New log in er soemthing Andrew?
Damn filters won’t don’t accept outbound links ma man.
Have a good weekend too!
I meant long JPY (of course).
Kong, what is all this talk of aud/usd reaching 0.93 and breaking the falling trendline when Stevens himself said the AUD was too high? Even when AU retail sales disappointed and US data came out above expectations prior to today, aud/usd rallied anyway. Combine this with the fact that so many were long to start the week, it just doesn’t add up. What am I missing? Is this a good example of an irrational move that just cannot be explained?
The fact that FOMC is now less than a week away and taper is unlikely has me in panic mode. I appreciate all the articles you write…in fact I usually read it minutes after it comes out since my iPad is always on me…please write one specifically on risk management soon.
Yes you are missing something. Something big.
Pull a chart of AUD vs USD ……. then a chart of AUD vs JPY.
AUD up against USD, down against JPY. So? what does this suggest?
These pairs reflect the “relative change in two currencies” not “which currency is “generally strong”.
AUD gets sold when risk is off. Period.
AUD did get sold today…..but USD GOT SOLD MORE!
It takes years man….to get this all under yer thumb…and your questions are GREAT QUESTIONS!
Just trade safe while you’re ironing out the small details. You’ll get it. Just don’t get “busted” first.
FWIW my 8hr squeeze in USD/CAD fire NEG which in this par is positive for CAD…. the next big TF on my watch list is the weekly….. if this fires NEG then we will all be sitting pretty for those short this pair!!! the squeeze in this pair has now been running some 16-17 weeks!!!
I know this is a FX site but some may be trading PM…. specific to Silver it’s been in a squeeze since this morning 10am & looking like a positive fire here ….. this should take us back over the 24 handle if not higher….. gold will follow & big brother…. should POP in after-hours here but may be left for Asian open Sunday!! either way a positive fire here on the table…… DXY looking for another move lower 🙂
The input is greatly appreciated Schmed – but we’ve got to get something outta the way…..
What is this “squeeze thing”? – Personally I find it misleading / confusing / terminology.
Gimme / us a lil background / insight as to how to “interpret” SQUEEZE?
Hey Dr. Kong….. ok try to keep it simple…… as mentioned before….. couple of things….. BB & KC used with a momentum indicator……. when BB enter the KC this tells me that momentum is building…. the longer the BB ride inside of the KC the more explosive a move…. also more TF’s in a squeeze the more we can expect a move in either direction……. the trigger is pulled either long or short pending a positive or Neg fire….. the direction upon fire is identified by a positive or neg MM indictor.
I can scalp with this system on the 5ive all the way to weekly set-up but find with FX the anything under 30min is not to be looked at…… works on the lower TF with mostly everything else…. FX is a different beast!!
If this is too misleading / confusing I’ll just post long or short movements relative to pairs or Silver/Gold…. or not post this particular system at all…. not trying to mislead or confuse anyone here…..
Cheers Schmed…