Ironically ( and in light of yesterday’s post “seen here first” ) overnight, both China and Japan have now publicly warned that the U.S better get its act together pronto.
As well (and again, I’ve got no crystal ball down here….only Mayan Shamans) The IMF (The International Monetary Fund) has now released the following:
“World growth will be slower than expected this year and next, and will take another big hit if the U.S. fails to resolve its debt drama, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday”.
“The IMF cut its 2013 global growth forecast by 0.3% to 2.9%.”
In other news ( not like you’ll see it on your local T.V ) China’s growth forecasts “specifically” have also been reduced.
Getting the message anyone????
Are you getting the message?
Zoom out and take a look at the next couple years, pull out your tin foil hats and get your shopping carts tuned up. 5 years worth of incessant money printing / stimulus, stocks “inflated beyond belief” and NO RECOVERY!
The normal business cycle ( which has been the same for generations ) has been stretched ,pulled , manipulated , extended “past” what we’d normally call “normal” and it’s time my friends……it’s time to get real.
I’m open to discussion as to “what the hell” to do about it, but the bottom line is – silver clouds / hope / faith / positivity / good attitude doesn’t pay the bills.
Start thinking “seriously” as to where you can look to tighten.
For your reading pleasure: https://forexkong.com/2013/01/31/2013-you-will-never-trade-it/
The Currency War Reality: Where Smart Money Moves When Central Banks Lose Control
USD Index Breakdown: When Reserve Currency Status Becomes a Liability
Let’s cut through the noise and talk about what’s actually happening in the currency markets. The Dollar Index (DXY) isn’t just showing weakness – it’s screaming that the world’s patience with American fiscal recklessness is running thin. When China and Japan publicly dress down the U.S., they’re not making diplomatic suggestions. They’re issuing ultimatums backed by trillions in Treasury holdings. The smart money isn’t waiting around to see if Congress gets its act together. They’re already positioning for a world where the dollar’s reserve status becomes questionable, not guaranteed.
Look at the EUR/USD pair’s recent action. Despite Europe’s own mountain of problems, the euro has found surprising strength against the dollar. Why? Because even a flawed currency union starts looking attractive when compared to a country that can’t figure out how to pay its bills without printing more money. The Swiss National Bank’s EUR/CHF floor at 1.20 suddenly makes more sense when you realize they’re not just fighting euro weakness – they’re preparing for dollar instability that could send massive capital flows into the franc.
Commodity Currencies: The Canaries in the Coal Mine
Here’s where it gets interesting for forex traders who actually want to make money instead of hoping for miracles. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar aren’t just commodity plays anymore – they’re becoming safe-haven alternatives for investors sick of currency manipulation games. The AUD/USD has shown remarkable resilience despite China’s growth slowdown because traders understand something fundamental: countries that actually produce real things will outlast countries that only produce debt and financial engineering.
The Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar are particularly fascinating right now. Both countries have oil, both have relatively stable political systems, and both have central banks that haven’t completely lost their minds with QE infinity programs. When the next wave of global uncertainty hits – and it will hit – watch how quickly capital flows into currencies backed by actual resources rather than promises and printing presses.
Emerging Market Reality Check: Where the Real Growth Lives
While the IMF cuts global growth forecasts and everyone wrings their hands about developed market stagnation, the emerging market currencies are telling a different story for those smart enough to listen. The Brazilian real, Mexican peso, and even the Turkish lira are starting to decouple from the traditional risk-on/risk-off patterns that have dominated post-2008 trading. Why? Because these economies are building real infrastructure, developing real consumer bases, and creating real wealth – not just shuffling financial instruments around.
The USD/MXN pair is particularly telling. Mexico’s manufacturing boom, driven by companies fleeing Chinese labor costs and looking for nearshoring opportunities, is creating genuine economic fundamentals that support peso strength. Meanwhile, the USD side of that equation is backed by what exactly? More debt ceiling debates and Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion? Smart money is starting to ask these uncomfortable questions.
The Technical Picture: Charts Don’t Lie When Politicians Do
From a pure technical perspective, the major dollar pairs are setting up for moves that most retail traders aren’t prepared for. The GBP/USD has been building a base above 1.50 that looks suspiciously like accumulation, not distribution. The USD/CHF continues to respect major resistance levels that suggest even the Swiss aren’t ready to let their currency weaken indefinitely against a dollar backed by increasingly questionable fundamentals.
Most importantly, look at the longer-term charts on gold priced in different currencies. Gold in yen terms, gold in euro terms, gold in pound terms – they’re all telling the same story. It’s not just dollar debasement driving precious metals higher; it’s a global loss of confidence in fiat currency systems that have been stretched beyond any reasonable limit. The USD/JPY carry trade that worked so beautifully for years is starting to reverse as Japanese investors realize that lending yen to buy dollars might not be the brilliant strategy it seemed when the U.S. could actually manage its finances.
The bottom line for forex traders? Stop trading yesterday’s themes and start positioning for tomorrow’s reality. The currency markets are sending clear signals about where this global debt charade is heading. Those who adapt will profit. Those who don’t will become liquidity for those who do.
Alright great post Kong! This is a situation I have thought about lots over the last while. Debt financing of govt is 100% necessary for the US. Debtors don’t dig it at all as their returns are being pooped on by money printing. So, what happens next? Well the US will always look after itself. So, they will have to up the velocity of quantitative easing to overcome the natural selling pressure from the good folks across the pond. Will they succeed at keeping rates supressed? While also increasing their own revenues to pay for the debt whilst eroding real incomes at the same time? Will political f*ckery cause and early default? This is where shit will slowly hit the fan and create a ridiculously volatile market I should think. PANIC….FIX….PANIC….FIX….Paaaaaannnnniiiicccccccc…….. My guess is it will take several years for this mess to complete and a great deal of currency debasement alongside some debt forgiveness….and perhaps a rebalance of global power.
We live in exciting times. Get your ninja suit on
Smells a bit like a mega gold trade somewhere in there
If we study history (even at a glance) we can see that the worlds financial system undergoes massive change roughly every 40 years or so. The 1890’s, 1930,s, 1970’s are recent such periods. We are now 42 or 43 years on from the last major change when the world dumped gold as a backing for printed currency.
Hundreds of years ago banks owners went to debtors prison when the bank went broke, however, the liabilities of the banks were small enough that most depositors got their money back, not so these days… NOBODY goes to prison following a bank default now.
1971 was when we went to the current system of 100% artificial currecy with basically zero asset backing behind it. It is also when banks started becoming publicly traded companies “on masse” totally removing responsibility from the banks owners (shareholders).
Food for thought.
Great stuff EZ – we are right on track for some “major” change.
Where to begin? Since WW II, the US has manipulated the world with the Brenton Woods deal just because we were the last man standing and had an economy that manufactured things. Now over the past 50+ years of the elite playing money games, their ponzi scheme is about to collapse. The US is starting wars to protect the dollar as the reserve currency, china is buying gold as fast as they can and doing direct trade agreements with as many countries to break the use of the dollar as the reserve. The Europeans are burying the member countries with debt upon more debt with NO hope of them ever paying it back. The European Union will force countries they are sinking in debt to give up their natural resources for payment and that is what they want from them, not paper money. So where does that leave things? The IMF has been working on a one world currency for years and are near completion. When that happens, the banks who have been playing at the casino of the world with their derivative market, will be collapsed by a spike in interest rates. The derivative market is many times the size of the global economy and has NO supervision or clarity. It is pure gambling. It was clearly evident in the 08 crisis in the US. It was derivatives that caused Tax Cheat Timmy Guitner to pay off an insurance company at 100% on the dollar so that Goldman Sachs would not be lost. Hmmmm, let’s see, the then US Treasury Secy was Hank Paulson, the ex CEO of Goldman. What a stroke of luck. They needed to keep the game going until the IMF is ready.
The global elite have been taking possession of physical gold over the past two years. Just look at JP Morgan, they have less than 100k ounces of gold in their vaults. The world economies will begin to collapse and the IMF will come in with the new money. Batten down the hatches my friends, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
I’ve written a couple articles on the IMF, as that “organization” isn’t exactly what most people imagine it to be.
The IMF has a wonderful track record of going into “countries with economic difficulties”, making loans then raising interest rates to “ridiculous, stripping away resources and offering contracts to large American companies to benefit.
Most should “fear the IMF” as one of the larger bulllies out on the playground.
As fiat currencies continue their “race for the bottom” I too believe that “eventually” the IMF will suggest the use of it’s “SDR’s” (special drawing rights ) as some form of “global currency” yes. It will certainly make for some interesting times.
Great post Eric.