It’s funny – how completely “obvious” so much of this appears when you’re looking in the rear view mirror. In retrospect you can pull up any number of charts, asset classes etc….then “layer in” the seasonal aspects (with Christmas now in full swing) add a sprinkle of “news” and a dash of some “good data” and there you have it.
Uncanny.Complete and total bliss.Right on cue.
Literally. Right down to the second on a lazy Friday morning, days before Santa comes to town – the news is good, the data is good, the stock market is higher – and you’re feeling pretty damn good about everything.
And so you should.
Considering the amount of poverty and hardship in the world today ( considering the things “I see” everyday ) we should all be so lucky, as to have what we have…..however temporary.
- We’ve got the Nikkei double top at 16,000.
- We’ve got “gold double bottom” at 1179.00/1199.00
- We’ve got U.S equities at all time highs.
- We’ve got the last remaining days of 2013.
We’ve got USD rolling over and “back in the red”. Huh? – Kong…..again do you know something we don’t?
As if it was almost choreographed to the second, a number of these correlations and levels appear absolutely “blatant” – when looking backwards. Why didn’t I wait for the retest in gold? Now I see Nikkei double top area as resistance…..Damn I forgot about seasonality….etc…etc…
In any case…..it always looks easy when we’re looking in the rear view mirror.
I wish all of you the very best this Christmas season, and encourage you to take advantage of every single minute with family and friends.
Despite the up’s n downs of financial markets we can’t lose sight of the fact that – “it’s a game…..that we the fortunate – have the privilege of playing”.
Be thankful.
Happy Holidays to you as well.Thank you for all your effort in 2013 and hope to learn more from you in 2014. you also enjoy your holidays and see you next year
Thank you Richard.
2013 has certainly been an interesting year…with starting the blog and all.
I hope to do better moving forward.
Merry Ho Ho Ho!
Happy Holidays Kong!
I’ve really enjoyed your blog this year and feel lucky to have stumbled upon it.
Thanks again and have a great holiday season.
Thanks J Man….you too.
Thanks as well for all the support / good work man.
Have a great holiday.
happy holidays to you, Forex K
question to you, what do you think of going long the Can $ here ?
thanks
It would really depend “against what” Howard.
Off the top of my head…..I’d sit tight as CAD has potencial to move lower as a commod currency , as well geographically ” along side” further USD weakness so…….
Looking at USD/CAD “specifically”…even as / if USD falls…….CAD ( as commod/risk related ) can fall harder.
It’s a tough pair in that sense.
I imagine we’ll get better clarity in the following week.
Kong,
Why do you think the dollar topped and gold bottomed at the 8:30 announcement of the GDP number?
I’m not looking at anything close to that specific / timely as to suggest these things happened “as a result of the GDP number”.
The GDP number is about the most ridiculous thing I’ve seen this year, but as the post suggests – It’s time for bliss and happiness.
The number is complete and total bullshit as GDP would have been “lucky” LUCKY to be even 2%! (Less I believe…perhaps even negative).
The dollar topped in July.
Any thoughts on the dollar still holding its pattern of higher highs and higher lows off the May 11 bottom
Higher highs and higher lows since May………
You’re a funny guy Steve, and I’ll even allow you to post / link a chart if you care to show us WTF you are talking about.
Higher highs n lows since May….I’m all eyes.
Higher highs and lows on a tail duration since MAY 2011!
Well I’ll be damned.
Way to go Stevo! If you’re out looking at “monthly and weekly” charts – you’ve been doing your homework! Since 2011?? Ok!
Yes…its touch n go with a weekly going back to May 2011 although its my thinking that…..the trendline was broken in Sept of this year, then price rose to in November to “re test” said trendline – and was soundly rejected.
When looking at such a long term chart and observing such a significant “technical move” coupled with the continued fundamentals hmmm…….
Very hard to consider “anything bullish” about the U.S Dollar.
Great question Steve….and Merry Freakin Xmas.
Yup since May 2011! Seems like a long time to look back but you may also want to check out when the CRB topped. Would have saved many commodity and gold bugs a lot of heartache if they just bothered to pull up some long term charts every now and then.
You’ve got that right man….as most traders just don’t look far enough back.
I love weeklies…and “always” consult weeky and monthly charts on any asset I’m looking to explore.
Alright, have a good Christmas Kong and best of luck to you with your new service in 2014.
Kong! Merry Christmas! – my one prediction is it won’t be a white one where you are 🙂
Kong, Merry Christmas and thanks for your blog.
Without you I think I would be still underwater or at BE. The only sure profits for me were always EUR/CHF trades with SL below the floor (BTW do you ever trade that pair?).
Merry Ho Ho Franky – and no I rarely trade EUR/CHF as its pegged!
It offers me very little in the way of movement – and we need movement!
EUR/CHF is good for newbies, it requires very little knowledge (just to know where is the floor) and then lot of patience 🙂
Excellent point Franky….excellent point.
And hey……if you’re making money with it – then go man go!
Agreed – Dr. Kong…. all the best…… time to close up shop for the holidays & get some well needed R&R….. the markets will always be there tomorrow….. Time with Family & Friends is priceless – time to reflect.
Cheers Schmed,
Have a good one Schmed.
All the best to you and your family!
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you Kong from the UK.
All my very best from the worlds biggest converted cynic.
Many thanks for changing my game.
Jacko.
Merry Xmas Andy….and I’m sure you’ve had it in you all along.
I think a healthy dose of cynicism goes along way with today’s markets being what they are.
I think we make more money as skeptics, than sheep.
Ho ho ho !!
Happy Holidays Kong!
Congratulations on out-doing last years gains and thanks for putting out a blog full of relevent and insightful information.
It’s funny you mention Forex as a “game”; I often refer to it as the “ultimate strategy game” myself.
An incredible year…..a tough year but oddly – in completely different ways than last…..
One thing I know for certain – you can’t take your eye off the ball for a second.
Play on!
My girlfriend must think I’ve lost the plot this year, as I keep quoting a wise gorilla. Jokes aside, thank you for consistently providing insight that cuts through the misinformation and misdirection. I look forward to joining you and your readership in what I hope will be a successful 2014. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Thanks Jack – That means alot. Really…thank you.
All the best to you and your family as well!
I was away on a business trip last week, for the better it seems. The Fed announcement and everything else seemed far away. And i didn’t mind at all. Now it’s catching up time, and gift buying time ’cause Christmas is… tomorrow. Damn, i better hurry up.
Trading related: discovering the mighty Kong was probably the best thing that happened to me in 2013. So here’s to you Kong, thanks for sharing your insights and analysis. Cheers.
Merry Christmukkah to you all.
Right on Bros!!
Merry Xmas to you too!!
Get out there! You don’t have much time!
Season’s greetings Kong, and what a great year 13 has been. Made my trading targets and have been able to buy the missus a new car for xmas with some profits.
Its really enjoyable corresponding on your blog…your insights are first class and I love the often “in your face” style to shake up the blogosphere and the mature way we can discuss issues in a non-threatening way…very refreshing. A traders life is often lonely and down here in Melbourne there are very few people to hang out and trade with, so this blog sure helps clarify thinking and acts as a beacon at times.
Have a great Christmas and New Year, and keep up the good work into 2014.
Cheers
Deano.