It’s my belief that the Japanese “Nikkei Index” has indeed topped, and actually did so back around 16,450 at the beginning of the year. Ya, ya , ya – I don’t usually do this / make such bold calls but what the hell…..these days I see every bozo under the sun suggesting things will go up forever so…..you can “take heed” or “take a hike” – trade it as you see fit.
This last “run up to around 15,000” ( where I’ve suggested again, and again, and again we’d see reversal ) has been what some might consider “wave 2” ( if you are an Elliot Wave guy ) leaving open consideration for a much larger “next leg down”.
The Nikkei topped AHEAD OF THE DOW in 2007 in very much the same fashion.
Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007
Remember this “beauty” from a few months back showing the Nikkei over a 20 year time frame?
*Draw a horizontal line at 15,000 in your mind. That is what we call a very, very, VERY strong line of either support or resistance – considering it’s significance over such a long period of time.
Nikkei_Longer_Term
Japan is a disaster, and when looking at things in this context – so is everything else as…..the Nikkei generally leads.
Perhaps this will shed some light as well….on my views about Central Banking and money printing as ( if you can imagine ) the massive dilution of the Yen ( as well USD ) over the past years, if only to achieve an incremental “short-term rise” in stock prices then……..to see things fall right back to where they started – just with waaaaay more “toilet paper” floating around.
Nothing has really changed, short of an incredible “transfer of wealth” from those already left with very little………to those who’ve already got a lot more than they need.
(P.S….in light of this “bold post” I might as well throw caution to the wind and tell you to run out tomorrow, sell your house, rack up every credit card you can, sell everything you own, leverage everything you’ve got another 500%, then “pre – market” dump every penny on a get rich quick “short play” Nikkei/Dow/whatever”, sit back and just watch the millions pile up.)
Please……..don’t be silly. I’m a single gorilla, with a single opinion and view of these things that for the most part – doesn’t generally fit the status quo.
Don’t be a dumb ass.
I know you’re not.
Very interesting Kong. I had a slight grin on my face after reading your last two posts. These last 2 months have really tested our patience. I agree with you though, as I think markets are starting to turn and Yen is looking frothy as of late. We will have to wait and see how the week unfolds, but some nice movement would be appreciated. Take care and enjoy the weather, it’s finally starting to turn where I’m at (no snow!). Cheers
Thanks Rob….I kinda feel like I’m just getting back to “being myself” as ya….these last couple months have been tough.
I don’t expect anything to be “much easier” moving forward but at least if/when we get a turn I can get those fundamentals back in line, and feel better about taking trades.
Let’s get at it here.
Thanks for the weekend posts Kong. Good ones. Ya its always hard pulling out the I call the top card but somebody has to do it. I have a similar view but of course we probably won’t know until later this year when retest comes. It looks to me like gasoline prices are going to get very high this year. Probably high enough to really erode profits. I assume that’ll be the punch in the face later this year.
Hope you are having a nice weekend. It’s finally sunny here!……and sorta warm…
Things are warmin up for you guys then? Great news.
Somehow things always feel better when you’ve got a bit of sunshine on ya.
“Top shmop” eh? – I just get a charge out of the majority of financial blogs “pussy footing” around it, and suggesting you break some kind of “cardinal rule” when suggesting things are petering out, and hey! You know more about this than I….what’s up with the business cycle / as extended as it is here?
From a purely “economic vantage point” we’re stretched as far as it’s really ever been aren’t we? Almost 5 and “a half” years?
I enjoy seeing these kinds of things come around as it will give people the longer term perspective they need in order to see/evaluate these kinds of environments when they pop up again.
There are some things money printing “can do” sure….but it’s always interesting to watch things get thrown upside down to illustrate just how “large” the markets are.
When “sell” is truly “sell”……the printing presses start to look pretty puny.