If you are only “half a moron” O.K fine…….you’re allright.
But if you envision yourself as “full moron” well…….that’s your thing.
COMPLETE MORON…..and now I’m looking to punch you in the knee, spit in your ear, and very likely kick you in the face – as you flounder around…….. reaching for your retainer ( and your Ibankcoin log in info ).
This is truly “complete moron”.
You buy JPY here ( meaning you “short” JPY related pairs such as AUD/JPY etc..) and you go boat shopping.
You dump your winning trades NOW, and you get to cash NOW….you book profits NOW…you go boat shopping NOW!
For forex people….duuhh…short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY,USD/JPY and every other JPY pair under the planet.
Abe won’t be thrilled.
Looking at the NZD/JPY, how far down do you think it’s dropping? It has a couple demand zones to poke through…
Hi Kong,
What do you see the impetus behind JPY strength? The market participants have really done a fine job of not letting usdjpy hold below 118.80. Everytime it dips below this, it suddenly finds a mysterious bid when the US opens. Just look at today’s action, from 118.81 to 119.50 in an hour.
Are you looking to buy JPY on a huge risk off materializing over the next few weeks? We have already seem remnants of it in Asian and European equity markets but yet to see it in US markets despite major falls in a few momo stocks.
Yes. Risk off coming soon to a theatre near you.
You are looking at the wrong chart, as USD/JPY sees two safe haven currencies trading aainst each other. It’s not indication of risk vs risk off as blatantly as AUD/JPY
Check the weekly candle on AUD/JPY with both a 60 and 34 SMA.
Thanks Kong.
I have been looking at cadjpy. This seems to have more of a correlation with risk and US equity markets more so than aud/jpy over past few months. This pair has held up well this week. Fact that oil caught a bid is not only helping cad but I suspect is also helping the beaten down oil complex in the us indices.
I think Aud has been out of kilt with risk since last September – just my view.
Have made some good gains in Dax this week but US markets and JPY holding up quite well. Have been watching JPY when USA opens and it always seems to be bid up to promote risk on, either that or VIX gets slammed.
But US equities looking tired and without more QE, can’t see them rallying much more. So yes, hopefully this will be the start of some sort of correction – until the next FED member “inadvertently” mentions QE4. Am short US so lets see what happens.
Nice work. Ive hit 3 for 3 trades of the day via twitter on shot term moves as well been killing it short USD for the last 10 days.
Yes, I knew you were looking to short USD for a while and you certainly made some good calls in that regards over past two weeks.
I tend to look for people I can learn from rather than just take trades blindly and as such, your musings have been great. Just wish I had your patients to place a trade and walk away. At present, I tend to watch markets one one hour which in current market, can be very draining.
I more or less packed up shop back in December ( as you well should have too! ) with markets going nowhere.
I stuck to the screen every minute of the day for a few years……and I learned a freakin tonne!
Your time is well spent, as you continue to learn.
I’ve now invested the time…… to better understand when “not to bother”.
I’m more active now, as I see that a significant move is near.
Hi Kong,
Another week, another week of bad data yet US risk markets very very resilient.
JPY hasn’t been looking to pretty against the commodity currencies of late. Commodities seem to have caught a bid (just look at oil) and this is hampering JPY strength against these currencies.
Japan on holiday as well so not much to be expected from Japan until they return.
Had a look at the audjpy chart as you suggested – seems to be pointing upwards, has gone through it’s 50, 100 and 200 daily moving average. In fact since 15th April, audjpy has been moving higher, to the tune of 500 pips.
Oh Madness.
Plot the 200 SMA on AUD/JPY daily and see clearly it’s just retesting / rinsing shorts – back at the previous near term high, there around the 200 SMA
Expect failure here and a great place for you to better understand. A stop some 50 pips above todays high….and you are good to hold.
Did u miss long EUR and GBP vs USD …as well Short USD/CAD?
You are still a bull…that’s why your trades aren’t working
Wish I could attach charts to show you my audjpy chart (Have plotted 50,100, 200 using exponential average).
What I can see is that audjpy went through 200 ma on 27-Apr and then next 5 days came back without taking out the low of the bar that initially went through the 22 ma. Then yesterday it went back through the 200 ma and is now higher. As I said, I plot exponential so maybe that is showing a slight difference to the simple ma.
I haven’t been a bull in ages. I have been trading equity indices in reduced lots and have had a good few weeks netting over 1000 pips on dow and dax. However it has been hard work as risk simply isn’t coming off quickly and continuously. It’s been a case of grabbing a couple of hundred pips here and there throughout the day.
Yes US$ is weakening but risk has not materially weakened at all. All JPY pairs are still near their 5 days high.
I am using currency markets to trade equity markets but as yet, risk off simply isn’t there as measured by JPY.
the averages serve as “broad strokes” not as fine lines.
I often suggest that you trade forex and draw lines of support and resistance with a crayola crayon – not a laser pointer.
Risk wont come off in some “blatant way” until the day that it finally does….and no one can predict this.
That s why I trade small lots “over time” and dont let the continued sideways action eat me up.
Could today rebound 200 points? Absolutely…..could the next day be down 180 points? Absolutely.
You need a bigger gun to trade forex….especially medium and long term.
Looking at a single day will just drive you “mad”.
Thank you for taking the time to respond, much appreciated.