The short USD Trade has been all too kind.
Have a peak at some “marketing timing” as a new daily cycle now begins for USD. I’m obviously 100% completely cash.
For the brave at heart – full reversal trade here….feel free to take a couple of days on the long side if you like.
Not for me….as I trade with the trend, but I’m sure you’ll squeeze a couple of days ( maybe as many as 6 ) long here if ya like. Have at it.
I’m hitting the oysters hard. No plans to trade for at least the coming week.
hi kong, do you mean equities and oil also will go up with usd?
No.
You have to appreciate that Oil could just as easily move 10 – 15 bucks in either direction with essentially “sideways” being the only direction. I dont hold any coorrelation with equities and oil – anymore.
More or less the same for equities as….even a couple days bump still leaves things “in range”.
It’s the U.S Dollar that has shown it’s hand as currency always leads.
Upside in equities so much less likely than considerable downside so…I’m not touching long SP 500 at all!
Hi Kong,
You say you do not hold any correlation between oil and equities anymore but yesterdays price action in US stocks would seem to suggests otherwise. Markets were heading lower and then once piece of unconfirmed news re. ‘production freeze agreed between Saudi and Russia’, caused oil to take off and it took the US stock market massively with it. Seems like US markets use oil rising as an excuse to rally and any fall in oil is ignored (like this morning).
Also, so far this year, we’ve had a near 9% decline in USDJPY (Yen strength) yet risk US markets are up completely ignoring this usual risk barometer.
There are probably a hundred reasons for risk to fall and only a few for it to up yet markets seem to be concentrating on the few that promote risk on.
Yesterday, global downgrades from the IMF were simply ignored. Add to that any poor earnings will be seen as a catalyst for no further rate hikes and more QE, I simply cannot see a catalyst for move to the years low. May have to wait many months or until after the US election (well we certainly can’t have markets falling during the final months of Obama’s presidency can we!!!).
Exactly – the American election may very well keep things elevated but even at that……the upside is extremely limited.
News, shmews……it’s all part of the same money making machine that continues to promote “buy buy buy” as banks /brokers / media outlets need your money in the bank and “invested” in order to pay out their bonuses.
Risk will fall – but you may very well need to be very VERY patient!
Wow is all I can say to US stocks over past few weeks and today. The news that drove the market up yesterday ie. Rumors of potential oil freeze, today those rumors were denied by the Saudis and together with a huge oil build inventory, and the market still goes higher again. Are we seeing a blow off top? Or are there so many shorts that short-covering will take this higher and higher!!!
No matter what you say and feel about the central banks etc, no one can deny that since 2007, they have undoubtedly won every battle against the shorts.
Lets see what it takes for this to come down even 1%. At present, there is no fear despite over whelming evidence that worlds economies are slowing and debt is building even higher.
Good luck shorts.
Sounds pretty much right on Madness.
Long USD trade in effect ( for those who want it ) otherwise…….I’m hittin the beach for a day er two!