forex market analysis

Buy EUR/USD – Before Tuesday Afternoon

Forex Kong 4 Comments

You’re going to want to buy EUR before Tuesday.

This trade fits into the exact same framework we have been working with…with respect to The U.S Dollar taking a very large nose dive –  very, very soon. You can see in the chart below that EUR/USD has now put in an absolutely “classic swing low” right at the 50 day moving average…after completing only the first daily cycle of this new “intermediate cycle”. This suggests that we’ve got several more daily cycles to go ( lasting somewhere between 30-35 days each) before this upswing completes.

I would imagine the 200 day moving average ( marked in red ) should be the next target. That’s some 350 – 400 pips!

Buy EUR Before Tues Afternoon

These correlations with The Euro, USD and Gold are batting near 100% right now….as you can’t have The Euro rise without USD moving decidedly lower. The same thing goes for Gold, and if you really want to nail this…feel free to get long The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) as well. Yen chart looks exactly the same as EURO.

So…only one more asset class to consider here right? U.S Equities.

I can’t stand the stock market right now, as it’s continued rise goes against just about every fundamental principle I can drum up. There are too many indicators and factors to list – all suggesting this thing tops out  soon…or at the very least – makes a serious correction. The stock market is cyclical and there is not a single thing “any acting president” can do to change that.

Trump has certainly “empowered the common man” with the talk of bringing jobs back, and I can certainly appreciate that but…..it won’t last. Unfortunately for stock buyers – foreign exchange leads the way and the message is painfully clear.

This thing needs a complete and total reset before some incredible turn around in the U.S economy will be realized.

Wash rinse repeat people. You know this. Has it ever been any different?

Never Buy In The Morning – Afternoon Is Best

Forex Kong 8 Comments

You don’t EVER buy pre-market…and I rarely buy anything in the morning.Period.

This is when Wall St. “sells to you”……where as in the afternoon….Wall St. “buys for themselves”.

 

Mornings_Are_For_Selling

Mornings_Are_For_Selling

You should file this away as another great tip / something to incorporate into your trading….as a mis-timed entries tend to keep you up at night.

And we all need our sleep right?

Resist the temptation to buy in the mornings….this will help a lot.

 

USD Update – Failed Daily Cycle

Forex Kong 13 Comments

The U.S Dollar has now breached the low from the previous daily cycle….confirming that this “next cycle” will also manifest as a “left translated cycle” and take the dollar decidedly lower.

But first we bounce.

We bounce higher in a confirmed downtrend so…you don’t go buying this dip in USD bonehead. You wait 4-6 days ( 6 at most I imagine ) and “sell the rip” as we are in a downtrend. Patience is everything when trading, as you’ve got to fight that “urge” to get in there…and be involved every minute of the day.

I can honestly say that these days ( having long since been through the emotional torment experienced when learning ) I spent more like 85% of my time plotting / scheming / observing markets than I do “actually trading”.

Magically…..the less I trade – the more money I make…but don’t confuse this with “investing”. Yes I believe that gold and silver have bottomed, the Euro will rise and USD will fall…JPY will surge and U.S equities will soon take a substantial hit so….

Investing is 100% totally / absolutely / without question OUT!  I trade…..and I trade assets I believe to be in longer term trends. I don’t consider it investing.

Most of the standard correlations are looking pretty good right now ie…USD down has The Euro and commodities ( priced in USD ) moving higher…and The Japanese Yen flying cuz money borrowed some years ago is now repatriating to the place of its origin. Yen up = U.S equities down.

The fact that this thing has traded sideways for this long must have many of you looking at your portfolios and wondering – why haven’t I done so well this past year?

How much “higher” can you really expect anything to climb in the face of a dramatically waning “appetite for risk”.

The planet is completely freaked out about Trump. Good or bad….I have no opinion, but I can tell you this….markets hate uncertainty, and the future looks “more than uncertain” to say the least.

Wouldn’t you agree?

Kong Sells Miners – Buying Again Soon

Forex Kong 2 Comments

Over the past 2 days. I’ve sold GPL, IMG and NUGT for a 28% return on the trades.

I’m still holding short USD/JPY as well long EUR/USD.

I expect this to be a “shallow dip” with respect to the gold and silver related stocks, so I will be scaling back in to these and more here shortly. On this next entry I am going to do my best to actually “buy and hold” something for at least a couple of weeks / if not months but then again…….we’ll see how that goes.

The larger macro turn in both USD as well commodities is slowly making its way…so there is still plenty of time to start building positions.

 

 

Forex_Kong_Japanese_Color

Forex_Kong_Taking_Profits

 

 

 

 

 

Winning Trades Update – USD, Gold and Silver

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Obviously the short USD trades are now in the money as The U.S Dollar continues to weaken. The mining trades have been on fire with GPL, IMG and now NUGT ( purchased yesterday ).

It may at first appear boring to just sit around and watch a single asset  / asset class ( currencies and USD ) but one has to consider “just how much revolves around the value of USD” – as U.S equities and global commodities trade in this currency.

Correlations can always be found with respect to the “value of USD” and the price of “things” on planet Earth. Thus far we’ve really only seen the beginning of a much larger and expected fall in USD.

Perhaps this is where some of you stock traders can find a solid reason to follow currency markets closely. Also with consideration that JPY ( the Japanese Yen ) trades “in tandem with risk”. When JPY value moves lower – stocks move higher. JPY moving higher ( on repatriation of currency flooding back to Japan ) – stocks move lower.

That’s just how it is!

You can easily check currency pairs at www.stockcharts.com by typing the symbols like this: $usdjpy, $audusd, $cadjpy etc… just dont forget to add the “$”.

I will now focus on JPY as a turn in “global appetite for risk” will soon see JPY on the rise against nearly every other currency on the planet. That means “shorting” currency pairs such as AUD/JPY ( meaning….I a shorting the value of Aussie Dollar “vs” the value of JPY) where in AUD will fall and JPY will rise.

Hope it helps everyone!

Forex Kong Winning Trades

 

 

 

 

Canopy Growth Corp – Marijuana Soon Legal in Canada

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Canada has recently released it’s plan to formally legalize the sale of Marijuana. The Marijuana related stocks have already taken off, but there are literally “opportunities abound” here in coming months. I strongly recommend that you start doing some company research NOW as these things are set for “stellar growth” through 2017.

Canopy Growth Corp being the largest player in the sector.

Canopy_Growth_Corp_Chart

Canopy_Growth_Corp_Chart

These companies ( and stocks ) are currently on fire, with the initial rush now over….providing a fantastic pullback and entry opportunity coming here soon.

Start getting a watch list together / ask me for further suggestions as these things should shoot for the moon as Canada finalizes it’s plan.

This is happening. This will happen in 2017.

Spot Silver Getting Close – Area Of Support Identified

Forex Kong 3 Comments

The spot price of Silver is now reaching an area of considerable support.

The near term “five month fall” from 19.50 – some 20% drop…now looking like a great place to start thinking about buying.

silver_chart

spot_silver_chart

Start “thinking about buying”  –  not taking out a second mortgage and going all in (this would be ridiculous) as you can’t really argue with the chart. If you’ve been patiently waiting (as I have ) to see the precious metals not only bottom….but actually start moving higher….you can’t argue with the chart.

Maybe 15 bucks is the low, who can say for certain but the “area of price” is starting to look attractive for longer term buy and hold on Silver.

It’s boring I know. ” Hey guys I just picked up some silver, and it hasn’t moved in price forever!” – Nice work Kong. You really rocked that silver trade.

Gimme a break………

Take it for what it is….as you’re too lazy to pull the chart yourselves, just sitting and waiting for your broker to call you. Stick it. He’s too busy counting his commissions.

Spot Silver opportunity – something to be aware of.

 

 

Dollar Top – Tomorrow On Follow

Forex Kong 1 Comment

One can only wonder how “positive for markets” a 7.5 Earthquake off the coast of Fukushima will be ( no sarcasm there )

Regardless…..USD topping out for the long plunge over the next several weeks.

I’m jumpin on board here shortly, and will likely get picked up sub 99.00 with tonnes of room for lower.

 

usd_topping_out

usd_topping_out

I like the short side, as people freak out and movements are so much bigger.

Steady as she goes…..

 

USD/JPY – Risk Off – Trade Accordingly

Forex Kong 6 Comments

The currency pair USD/JPY ( U.S Dollar vs Japanese Yen ) is a bellwether for “risk appetite” in markets. Simply put, when  the currency pair rises…..risk is ON. When the currency pair falls – RISK OFF.

Risk ON meaning……the general investing community is in “buy mode”. Risk OFF meaning – “sell mode”.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart.

usd_jpy_topped_out

usd_jpy_topped_out

I’ll let you be the judge….as “per always” – you can lead a horse to water – but you can’t make’em drink.

This chart looks terrible. After months of consolidation( June, July, August, September ) and now with the recent run up into “and after” the U.S election, USD/JPY finds itself at an interesting junction. You don’t see this in equity/stock markets as they only give you a tiny glint into the real world economy ( if any insight at all, considering the money printing and Wall St. corruption ) but…..currencies don’t lie.

USD/JPY will very soon turn. Global stock markets soon to follow so I challenge you to consider….

Are your assets currently protected? Stop losses? Mental stop losses? Greed got you by the balls? Any notion “what so ever” that…..tides may turn?

I’ve softened over these past years as….the Central Banks have made it impossible for the average “at home investor” to even consider things moving lower. I’ve “sung to the choir” at least a handful of times over the past years…encouraging my followers to exercise caution. I’ve been right at times….and horribly wrong at times.

This is another one of those times.

Caution warranted. Nothing more.

 

 

USD Topping Out? – Place Orders Underneath

Forex Kong 2 Comments

The U.S Dollar has now reached “another” serious area of resistance here around 100.00 / 99.85

 

usd_topping_out

usd_topping_out

Inversely gold and silver mining stocks ( and likely the entire metals complex ) look to be putting in a serious low here ( as suggested in my previous post ).

As I’ve suggested time and time again….the absolute best way to play these “potential turns” is to place your orders some 50 – 100 pips “below” current price action….or in the case of “getting long EUR/USD” some 50 – 100 pips “above”. This way…..you don’t get picked up if price moves against you ( nothing ventured nothing gained right? ) OR you do get picked up on momentum moving in your direction.

Another way to do this is to place your order “above or below” the previous days high/low ( as seen by the bottom or top of the candle of the previous day ) – keeping yourself out-of-the-way of intra day fluctuations, but still leaving you tonnes of room for profit – should price action  move in your direction. The key is to get into the trade “on momentum” and not get caught in the daily volatility.

You can’t pick an exact price. You never can. No blog, no investment consultant, no snake oil salesman can call it that close – it’s impossible when you consider we are talking about moves in a currency as small as 1/100 of a cent!

As well…..if you are looking for further confirmation / theory that perhaps things are ready to turn lower….take a look at Apple ( AAPL )

If the entire planet is so “hell-bent on buying U.S Equities” – How come industry leaders like Apple look like shit?