trade strategies

Read These Articles – Plan Ahead

Forex Kong 10 Comments

The G20 statements more or less give the continued currency war a big fat A O.K – so we can only imagine that the good ol Yen (JPY) will continue to take a pounding. As nothing moves in a straight line… I can’t help but ask “when will we see a counter trend rally?”  but all things considered  – it may not be quite yet. The trade implications could very well co inside with a couple of my previous posts:

Currency Wars – Japan Turns Up The Heat

Here I outlined the topside possibilities  in the pair AUD/JPY being as high as 1.05. As extreme as this may have sounded at the time, the AUD/JPY pair has provided me with some of the largest profits to date – and deserves another look.

Forex – Trade The Fundamentals First

Here I suggested that the long-term trend in the pair USD/JPY has indeed based… and in turn reversed. The trade here has been massive – and as suggested one of the best trade ideas of the coming year.

Blow Off  Top – Retail Bagholders

A caution to readers that we are nearing a near term “topping process” – and that often these moves present a massive “spike” as Wall Street hands the bag to the poor retail guys buying at the absolute top.

Now I can only do my best to put the pieces together as I see things happening in real-time – but should “all things Kong” play out as suggested well……..wouldn’t that be dandy? In all – my suggestion / plan to be 100% cash by mid March is soon upon us so…I will be watching closely and suggest you do the same.

The outcome here (whether it be next week …or a couple more weeks) “should” see a very large move UPWARD in USD ( as fear grips markets and safe havens are sought) as well JPY – coupled with a considerable correction in the U.S Stock Markets and “risk” in general.

As backward as it may seem (and almost “sick” in a sense) in the back of mind –  I am already formulating LONG USD IDEAS.

Positioning for the Perfect Storm: USD Strength and Risk-Off Dynamics

The JPY Paradox: Safe Haven Meets Intervention Reality

Here’s where things get interesting, and frankly, where most traders completely miss the boat. The Japanese Yen sits in this bizarre twilight zone between being a traditional safe haven currency and a systematically debased intervention target. When the next risk-off event hits—and it will hit—we’re going to see this massive tug-of-war play out in real time. On one hand, you’ve got decades of ingrained trader behavior driving flows into JPY during uncertainty. On the other hand, you’ve got the Bank of Japan sitting there with bazookas loaded, ready to obliterate any sustained JPY strength that threatens their export-driven recovery narrative.

This creates an absolutely explosive setup for USD/JPY. The initial move might see some JPY buying as scared money runs for cover, but that strength will be met with such overwhelming intervention firepower that the subsequent reversal could make the current rally look like child’s play. Smart money isn’t going to fight the BOJ when they’re this committed to debasement. The question isn’t whether USD/JPY breaks higher—it’s how violently it happens when intervention meets panic selling in risk assets.

Cross Currency Carnage: Where the Real Money Gets Made

While everyone’s fixated on the major USD pairs, the real action is brewing in the crosses. AUD/JPY isn’t just a trade—it’s a freight train loaded with risk sentiment, commodity exposure, and carry trade dynamics all rolled into one beautiful, volatile package. When risk appetite finally cracks and the equity markets start their overdue correction, AUD/JPY is going to be ground zero for the carnage.

But here’s the kicker: the initial sell-off in AUD/JPY will create the mother of all buying opportunities once the dust settles and intervention kicks in. Australia’s still sitting on a mountain of resources that China desperately needs, and Japan’s still committed to making their currency as attractive as a wet paper bag. The fundamentals haven’t changed—they’ve just been temporarily overshadowed by the risk-off hysteria that’s coming.

EUR/JPY presents another fascinating angle. The European Central Bank is trapped in their own policy prison, unable to meaningfully tighten while Japan aggressively loosens. Any temporary EUR strength during a USD sell-off will be met with the reality that Europe’s economic fundamentals remain absolutely dire compared to Japan’s export-driven momentum post-debasement.

The USD Long Setup: Contrarian Gold

This is where conventional wisdom goes to die, and where serious money gets made. While every talking head on financial television will be screaming about USD weakness during the initial risk-off phase, the smart money will be quietly accumulating long USD positions against everything except JPY. Why? Because when the panic subsides and reality sets in, the US remains the cleanest dirty shirt in the global laundry basket.

The Federal Reserve has actual room to maneuver. US economic fundamentals, while not perfect, are light-years ahead of Europe’s demographic disaster and Japan’s three-decade stagnation story. When global investors finish their initial panic buying of bonds and start looking for actual value and growth prospects, USD becomes the obvious choice. The setup here is textbook: maximum pessimism creating maximum opportunity.

DXY could easily see a violent reversal from whatever lows we hit during the risk-off phase. We’re talking about a potential 8-10% move higher over the following months as reality trumps panic. GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and especially the commodity currencies are going to provide excellent shorting opportunities once this thesis starts playing out.

Timing the Transition: From Defense to Offense

The beauty of this setup lies in its two-phase nature. Phase one is defensive: preserve capital, avoid the initial chaos, and wait for maximum fear to create maximum opportunity. Phase two is aggressive offense: deploy capital into high-conviction USD longs and carefully selected JPY shorts when intervention becomes obvious and sustained.

The transition signal will be unmistakable: coordinated central bank intervention, particularly from the BOJ, combined with stabilization in equity markets and a shift in narrative from crisis to opportunity. When financial media starts talking about “oversold conditions” and “buying the dip,” that’s your green light to deploy the USD long strategy with size and conviction.

Risk management remains paramount, but the reward-to-risk ratio on these setups is approaching historic levels. This isn’t about being lucky—it’s about being prepared when preparation meets opportunity in the most liquid markets on earth.

Currency Crossroads – G20 Jitters

Forex Kong 2 Comments

The Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (also known as the G-20, G20, and Group of Twenty) is a group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 major economies.

The G7 (also known as the G-7) is an international finance group consisting of the finance ministers from seven industrialized nations: the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan.

The G7 has already met this week – and hopes to present a unified message to the smaller contributing countries of the G20 set to meet here on Friday and Saturday – ie………..”let’s not pull another Chavez (Venezuelan Pres. who just devalued their currency by 32% last week… and practically overnight) and leave us to do the devaluing on our own”.

Japan is clearly in the doghouse (as seen kicking ass in the current currency war) and it will be more than interesting to see what comes out of it all. At this point the currency war is really heating up  – and the markets are more or less at a stand still…frozen like a deer in the headlights.

Frankly – standing clear of it  is about the best advice I can give – as volatility is up and direction is unclear.

The USD weakness is right on track as suggested –  but thus far, the waters are choppy to say the least. Unfortunately for tonight and likely tomorrow – no trade may very well be the best trade.

Currency War Fallout: Reading the Tea Leaves

Japan’s Yen Debasement Strategy Under Fire

The Bank of Japan’s aggressive quantitative easing program has essentially put a giant target on their back at these G20 meetings. When you’re systematically debasing your currency to boost exports while everyone else is trying to manage their own economic recoveries, you’re going to catch heat. The USD/JPY pair has been on a relentless march higher, breaking through key resistance levels like they were tissue paper. We’ve seen the yen weaken from around 77 to the dollar back in late 2011 to well over 90 now, and that’s no accident.

The problem for Japan is simple: their export-driven recovery model only works if everyone else plays nice and doesn’t retaliate. But when you’re essentially stealing market share through currency manipulation, other nations get cranky fast. The Europeans are already dealing with their own sovereign debt mess, and the last thing they need is Japan undercutting their export competitiveness even further.

The Domino Effect: Why Venezuela’s Move Matters

That 32% devaluation Chavez pulled wasn’t just some isolated event in South America. It’s a perfect example of what happens when currency wars go nuclear. One day you’re trading USD/VEF at one level, and overnight the entire playing field shifts dramatically. This kind of shock devaluation sends ripples through emerging market currencies and commodity prices, creating exactly the kind of uncertainty that makes forex trading feel like Russian roulette.

What’s particularly dangerous about Venezuela’s move is that it shows just how quickly things can unravel when governments get desperate. Other commodity-dependent economies are watching closely, and if oil prices don’t cooperate or if social unrest continues to build, we could see similar moves from other nations. The message to G20 members is clear: coordinate your monetary policies or risk complete chaos in currency markets.

Trading Strategy in a Currency War Environment

When central banks are actively trying to debase their currencies, traditional technical analysis goes out the window. Support and resistance levels mean nothing when a central bank can print unlimited amounts of money or announce surprise policy changes. The key is focusing on relative strength rather than absolute moves. If everyone’s debasing, you want to be long the currency of the country that’s debasing the least, not the most.

Right now, that’s creating some interesting opportunities in pairs like AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, where you’re essentially betting that Australia and the UK will be more restrained in their monetary policy than Japan. The Swiss National Bank’s EUR/CHF floor at 1.20 is another perfect example of how artificial these markets have become. You’re not trading economics anymore; you’re trading central bank policy intentions.

The Dollar’s Dilemma: Reserve Currency Blues

The USD weakness we’re seeing isn’t happening in a vacuum. When you’re the world’s reserve currency, you can’t just devalue willy-nilly without serious consequences. The Federal Reserve is caught between wanting to support domestic growth through easier monetary policy and maintaining the dollar’s credibility as a store of value for the rest of the world. That’s a tightrope walk that’s getting more precarious by the day.

The real danger for dollar bulls is that if other major economies coordinate their debasement efforts, the US could find itself in a position where they have to choose between economic competitiveness and reserve currency status. That’s not a choice any Fed chairman wants to make, but if export growth continues to lag while domestic unemployment remains elevated, political pressure could force their hand.

The EUR/USD pair is reflecting this uncertainty perfectly, bouncing around in wide ranges as traders try to figure out which central bank will blink first. The European Central Bank has their own problems with peripheral European debt, but they’re also not keen on letting their currency strengthen too much against a weakening dollar. It’s a three-way chess match between the Fed, ECB, and BOJ, and retail traders are just trying not to get crushed in the middle.

Short Term Trade Tip – Horizontal Lines

Forex Kong 9 Comments

Obviously my short-term trade set up is a thing of beauty, and relatively soon – will be made available to the rest of you. But aside from that, I want to pass along a simple little tip – that could provide you an “edge” here in the meantime.

When you drill down to smaller time frames such as a 1H chart (1 hour candle formations) or even a 15 minute, or 5 minute – take out your crayola crayon (and not your laser pointer) and draw a line THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONGESTION/SQUIGGLES. It will be this “price level” that is currently at play – and not the “highs and lows” of the given time frame.

For the most part anything smaller than a 1 Hour chart is frankly just “noise” so the highs n lows are really not as significant as the middle ground where price is centered. Once these lines have been drawn – a trader can then focus on a “realistic price” to consider for entry or even stops etc, as the volatility short-term will spike/fall and give you all kinds of levels – not exactly relevant to your trading. On a 1 hour Chart 30 – 50 pips on either side of this “central price” is completely normal, and isn’t enough to even get my heart beating – in consideration of dumping a trade.

If you don’t understand the given volatility on the time frame you are viewing – you will get killed.

Take out a crayon and not a laser pointer – and plot the “middle of the squiggle “.

As simple as it seems – this can easily be the difference in catching many, many more pips in any given trade, based on the fact that you have not skewed your lines of S/R to reflect the highs and lows of smaller time frames….but the center – where price is currently fluctuating.

Thanks Kong!

The Psychology Behind Central Price Action Trading

Why Your Brain is Wired to Fail at Short-Term Charts

Here’s the brutal truth most retail traders refuse to accept – your natural instincts are working against you every time you open a 5 or 15-minute chart. The human brain is hardwired to focus on extremes, those dramatic highs and lows that seem so significant in the moment. When EUR/USD spikes 20 pips in ten minutes, your attention immediately locks onto that peak or valley. This is exactly why 90% of retail traders get chopped up like hamburger meat in ranging markets.

Professional traders and institutional money managers understand something crucial: price extremes on lower time frames are statistical outliers, not tradeable reality. That 20-pip spike? It’s noise. The real story is unfolding in the middle ground, where the bulk of volume and institutional interest actually resides. When you start drawing those crayon lines through the center of price action, you’re training your brain to see what the smart money sees – the true gravitational center of market activity.

Institutional Volume vs Retail Noise

Let me paint you a picture of what’s really happening when GBP/JPY is bouncing around like a ping pong ball on your 15-minute chart. While you’re getting excited about every 30-pip move, the big boys – the central banks, hedge funds, and major commercial interests – are operating with a completely different perspective. They’re not daytrading these micro-movements. They’re positioning around levels that make sense from a daily or weekly standpoint.

When Bank of England policy shifts or Japanese intervention rumors surface, institutional flows don’t care about your 15-minute support level that got violated by 10 pips. They care about the central tendency of price over meaningful time periods. This is why drawing your crayon through the middle of short-term congestion gives you a more accurate read on where the real money is positioned. You’re essentially filtering out retail panic and focusing on institutional reality.

Volatility Context: The 30-50 Pip Buffer Zone

That 30-50 pip buffer I mentioned isn’t some arbitrary number I pulled out of thin air. It’s based on mathematical reality of currency pair volatility during different market sessions. During London overlap with New York, major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD routinely experience intraday ranges of 80-120 pips. If you’re setting stops based on the precise high or low of some random 15-minute candle, you’re essentially guaranteeing that normal market breathing room will kick you out of perfectly valid trades.

Consider USD/CAD during oil inventory releases, or AUD/USD during Chinese economic data drops. These pairs can swing 40-60 pips in minutes, then settle back into their central range like nothing happened. Traders who understand this volatility context and position accordingly around the central price level catch these moves and hold through the noise. Traders who don’t get stopped out just before the real directional move begins.

Practical Application: Reading Market Structure Like a Pro

Once you start implementing this central price concept, you’ll notice something fascinating about market structure. Those seemingly random squiggles on your lower time frame charts start revealing patterns. The market isn’t actually random – it’s oscillating around logical institutional levels with predictable volatility parameters.

Take a currency pair like USD/CHF during Swiss National Bank intervention periods. The central bank isn’t trying to hit precise pip levels – they’re defending broad zones. When you draw your crayon line through the middle of their intervention activity, you can see the logical center of their operations. Your entries, exits, and risk management suddenly align with the flow of real money rather than fighting against it.

This approach transforms your relationship with market volatility from adversary to ally. Instead of getting shaken out by normal price movement, you start using that movement as confirmation that your central level analysis is correct. The market’s natural breathing becomes your edge rather than your enemy.

Blow Off Top – Retail Bagholders

Forex Kong 10 Comments

I’m throwing this out there now – more so as a warning to newcomers.

My “risk barometer” being the SP 500 / Dow Jones Industrial Average is cranked about as high as one can imagine – given the current global state of affairs. We are now looking at levels not seen since the highs, prior to the massive crash in late 2007.

One can only assume that right around now, every retail investor on the planet has heard of the “massive upswing in markets” and has just as likely received word from their local shyster (ooops… broker) that now is a fantastic time to buy – as to not “miss out” on the opportunity to make a quick buck.

Looking a few days / week out – one could very well see what I refer to as a “blow off top”. A market phenomenon where large numbers of retail investors chase prices in a frantic scramble to “get in” before the opportunity has passed and the ship has sailed. Unfortunately this is right around the same time that Wall Street is unloading its last few shares (at insane premiums) to the poor unsuspecting newbies – blinded by greed, stumbling over themselves to snap up whatever shares they can.

I’m not suggesting their isn’t money to be made (seeing market leaders such as Apple down 55 bucks looks like a buy opp to me too) but I am putting out a strong reminder that – this is how the markets work. You are the last to buy (at the top) and then will generally hold (until you can’t stand it any longer) only to then sell at the bottom. The big boys will “buy your fear” and “sell your greed” all day long – as retail investors continue to do what humans will do.

Does this at all sound familiar?

Take heed….watch these markets like a hawk here at the highs….thank me later.

The Currency Implications of Peak Risk Assets

USD Strength at Market Tops: A Historical Pattern

Here’s what most traders miss when equity markets reach these nosebleed levels – the US Dollar typically begins its most aggressive moves right as risk assets peak. We’re seeing classic signs now. The DXY has been coiling like a spring while everyone’s been mesmerized by stock market fireworks. When that blow-off top finally arrives, expect the dollar to rip higher as international money floods back to US Treasuries. This isn’t speculation – it’s pattern recognition based on decades of market cycles. The 2000 dot-com peak, the 2007 housing bubble, even the 2018 tech selloff – all preceded by dollar consolidation and followed by explosive USD strength. Smart money knows this. They’re positioning now while retail is still chasing Apple and Tesla.

Pay attention to EUR/USD here. We’re hovering dangerously close to key technical levels, and European economic data continues to disappoint. The moment US equities crack, that pair is going to fall like a stone. Same story with GBP/USD – Brexit uncertainties never really disappeared, they just got masked by risk-on euphoria. When fear returns, these currencies get demolished against the dollar. It’s not a matter of if, it’s when.

Commodity Currencies: First to Fall When Reality Hits

AUD, NZD, and CAD – these are your canaries in the coal mine. Commodity currencies always lead the way down when risk appetite evaporates. Australia’s economy is more dependent on China than most realize, and if you think Chinese demand stays robust during a global equity correction, you haven’t been paying attention. The Australian Dollar is trading near levels that assume perpetual growth – a dangerous assumption when US markets are this extended.

New Zealand’s housing bubble makes 2007 America look conservative. When global liquidity tightens – and it will when these equity markets roll over – the Kiwi dollar is going to get absolutely crushed. Canada’s story isn’t much better with their own real estate insanity and over-dependence on resource prices. These currencies are accidents waiting to happen, trading on borrowed time while everyone’s distracted by stock market gains.

Safe Haven Flows: Where the Real Money Moves

Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc – these are where institutional money runs when reality sets in. USD/JPY has been grinding higher, but don’t mistake this for yen weakness. It’s dollar strength masking what’s coming. When equities finally crack, watch how fast this pair reverses. The Bank of Japan can’t fight global safe-haven flows forever, despite their intervention threats. Smart traders are already building yen positions through options strategies, knowing the inevitable rush for safety is coming.

The Swiss Franc tells a similar story. EUR/CHF looks stable now, but that’s only because everyone’s convinced European assets are still worth owning. Wait until German export data starts reflecting global slowdown reality. Wait until Italian debt concerns resurface when easy money conditions tighten. The franc will explode higher as European money seeks the ultimate safe haven. The Swiss National Bank learned their lesson about fighting these flows back in 2015 – they won’t make the same mistake twice.

Positioning for the Inevitable Turn

Here’s your roadmap: start building USD positions against everything except JPY and CHF. This isn’t about timing the exact top – that’s a fool’s game. This is about recognizing we’re in the final innings and positioning accordingly. EUR/USD shorts, AUD/USD shorts, GBP/USD shorts – these are the obvious plays when sanity returns to markets. But don’t wait for confirmation. By the time retail figures out what’s happening, the best currency moves will be over.

Remember, currency markets move faster and more violently than equities during these transitions. While stock traders are still hoping for rebounds and buying dips, forex markets will already be pricing in the new reality. The beauty of currency trading during these periods is the momentum – once these moves start, they tend to run much further than anyone expects. Position size appropriately, use proper risk management, but don’t let fear of being early keep you from recognizing what’s staring us right in the face. The setup is textbook perfect.

Looking To Trade – Need Catalyst

Forex Kong 9 Comments

As a fundamental element of my trading plan – I need to stay active. I rarely leave profits sitting on the table for more than a day, and equally – can’t stand sideways directionless action. My short-term trade technology has proven incredibly reliable once again as I have been 100% cash nearly 10 days now (Permit and Bonefishing in Punta Allen – please google it) and literally haven’t missed a pip. The majority of currency pairs (with a few exceptions) are sitting at nearly the exact levels as a week ago, while equities and PM’s have more or less treaded water.

This soon will change.

Thursday’s, with their barrage of U.S economic data have often provided swing points in markets – and I suspect that this week will be no different. With a bit of news out of Canada tomorrow as well the GBP unemployment rate, my current “tech” should have me on one side of the fence or the other, sometime late tomorrow evening / possibly early Thursday morning.

As difficult as it is to believe at times, and as little sense as it makes (considering the general state of “things”) I still favor further upside in coming weeks, but am a touch more cautious than I may have been prior. Obviously nothing moves in a straight line – so the usual zigs n zags are expected…as we likely “grind” higher.

Some signs of life also being seen in the PM’s and related mining stocks and etf’s.

I will continue to monitor commods vs USD as well JPY, and should the USD continue in another leg down – getting long GBP also looks like a promising trade. The JPY pairs have obviously had their “day in the sun” and I would be reluctant to push much further without seeing a reasonable pullback/correction before continuing (in general) short JPY against the lot. I’ve seen no real change fundamentally as the currency wars continue – with everyone taking their turn at bat. Perhaps Thursday’s U.S data will be the catalyst to push things firmly in one direction or the other.

Reading the Market’s Next Move: Technical and Fundamental Convergence

Thursday Data Releases: The Weekly Pivot Point

The pattern is unmistakable – Thursday’s economic barrage consistently serves as the week’s inflection point, and this week’s lineup demands attention. Initial jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production will hit the tape in rapid succession, creating the volatility needed to break these stagnant ranges. What traders often miss is the sequential impact of these releases. Claims data sets sentiment, retail sales confirms or denies consumer strength, and industrial production validates the underlying economic momentum. When these align in the same direction, currency moves become explosive rather than gradual.

The market is coiled like a spring, and Thursday’s data represents the release mechanism. My positioning ahead of this will be surgical – not based on predictions, but on immediate reaction patterns. The initial spike often reverses within the first 30 minutes, but the secondary move typically holds for days. This is where real money gets made, not in the headline-chasing scramble that amateurs mistake for trading.

GBP Dynamics: Beyond Brexit Noise

The pound’s current technical setup presents a compelling long opportunity, but not for the reasons most are watching. While Brexit remains background noise, the real driver is interest rate differential expansion. The Bank of England’s hawkish posture versus Federal Reserve uncertainty creates a yield advantage that institutional money cannot ignore. Cable sitting near current levels with this fundamental backdrop is simply mispriced.

GBP/JPY offers even more attractive risk-reward dynamics. The cross has consolidated beautifully after its recent surge, and any USD weakness will amplify sterling’s move against the yen. Japanese intervention threats become meaningless when multiple currencies are appreciating against the yen simultaneously. The carry trade dynamics that drove massive flows into JPY crosses before are reversing, and GBP benefits from both higher yields and improving economic data relative to Japan’s stagnation.

Precious Metals: The Canary in the Currency Coal Mine

Gold and silver’s recent stirrings aren’t coincidental – they’re signaling underlying dollar weakness that hasn’t fully manifested in major currency pairs yet. This divergence creates opportunity. When precious metals begin outperforming while currency pairs remain range-bound, it typically precedes a significant dollar move lower. The smart money flows into hard assets first, currencies second.

Mining stocks and ETFs amplifying these moves confirms institutional participation rather than retail speculation. GDX and GDXJ showing relative strength against broader equity indices indicates professional accumulation. This backdrop supports the thesis for USD weakness across the board, but particularly against commodity-linked currencies. AUD and CAD should outperform EUR and CHF in this environment, as resource extraction economics improve with rising precious metals prices.

Currency War Endgame: Positioning for the Next Phase

The coordinated nature of recent central bank interventions reveals more than intended. When multiple banks intervene in sequence rather than simultaneously, it exposes communication and timing vulnerabilities. Japan’s solo yen defense while other G7 members remain silent indicates fractures in coordination. These cracks create exploitable opportunities for traders willing to position against intervention attempts.

The Federal Reserve’s next move becomes critical not just for USD pairs, but for global currency stability. If Thursday’s data shows continued economic resilience, the Fed’s dovish pivot loses credibility, potentially triggering a sharp USD recovery. Conversely, weak data confirms the pivot and accelerates dollar decline across all majors. Either outcome breaks the current stagnation, but the direction determines which currency pairs offer the highest probability trades.

My bias toward further upside in risk assets requires USD weakness to continue, but this isn’t a straight-line proposition. The grinding higher action I expect will create multiple entry points for patient traders. The key is recognizing when grinding becomes acceleration – typically triggered by data surprises or central bank policy errors. Thursday’s releases could provide exactly that catalyst, transforming sideways action into directional momentum that persists for weeks rather than days.

Learn To Trade – Or Die

Forex Kong 25 Comments

I still hear some of these “old school” guys on the net – talking about “investing”. Good luck with that.

You see – for those of us who got started in this game around the time of the crash in 2008, the word “investing” has more or lost its appeal. Considering the current environment, and the forecast for the future – anyone considering investing in anything (for any extended period) should most certainly have their head examined.

I wish it was still that easy.

I pull up charts on any number of things, going back some 10 odd years or so  – and laugh. These guys still think they know what they are doing because of their experience back in 2005 when it didn’t matter if you bought ” day old cake”. Every morning you woke up – called your broker – and your stock went up.

This is fantasy land now. This will likely never happen again.

If you are not willing to spend an extra hour or two studying the company you just invested in, or following a couple of charts, or tuning in to the current news (and I’m not talking about CNBC) to get an idea of what’s going on day-to-day – I can assure you….you and your hard-earned money will “all too soon” be parted.

You don’t have to become a “day trader” – as I don’t day trade either, but you should at least come to understand that there is nothing wrong with selling when you see a profit – and buying back again when your favorite stock dips. Trust me – you won’t miss a  thing.

Markets today (more than ever) are designed to rid you of your cash – designed with “alien type precision” in fact…..for that very purpose. If you don’t learn to “trade” – I have some very bad news for you.

For all your efforts….and all your hard work……you will most certainly end up with zero.

Learn to trade – or……….

The Reality of Modern Market Mechanics

The forex market is the perfect example of what I’m talking about. Currency pairs don’t just drift upward like stocks used to in the good old days. EUR/USD doesn’t care about your retirement timeline or your buy-and-hold philosophy. The Bank of Japan can intervene at 3 AM Tokyo time and wipe out months of your “patient investing” in a matter of minutes. This is the new reality – central banks, algorithmic trading systems, and institutional money flows create volatility that will chew up passive investors faster than you can say “quantitative easing.”

You think holding USD/JPY for six months is a solid strategy? Tell that to the guys who watched their positions get destroyed when the yen suddenly strengthened 400 pips overnight because of some obscure policy shift from the BOJ. The forex market operates 24/5, and news breaks when you’re sleeping. If you’re not actively managing your positions, you’re essentially gambling with your money while blindfolded.

Central Bank Warfare Has Changed Everything

Every major central bank is now in a constant state of market manipulation – and I use that term deliberately. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all playing currency wars with your money on the table. Interest rate decisions, forward guidance, and intervention threats create massive swings in currency pairs that make the old-school “set it and forget it” approach completely obsolete.

When Jerome Powell even hints at changing monetary policy, GBP/USD can move 200 pips in an afternoon. When Christine Lagarde suggests the ECB might adjust their bond-buying program, EUR/JPY experiences volatility that would have taken months to develop in previous decades. These aren’t gradual, predictable movements – they’re violent, sudden shifts that require active position management.

Algorithmic Trading Owns the Game Now

Here’s what those old-school investors don’t understand: human traders are now competing against machines that process thousands of data points per second. High-frequency trading algorithms can identify support and resistance levels, execute trades, and close positions faster than you can blink. They’re designed to exploit exactly the kind of predictable behavior that traditional investors rely on.

These algorithms hunt stop losses, create false breakouts, and manipulate price action around key technical levels. They know exactly where retail traders place their stops on major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/JPY, and they’ll drive price to those levels just to trigger mass liquidations. If you’re not aware of these tactics and adjusting your trading approach accordingly, you’re walking into a slaughter.

Information Asymmetry Is Your Enemy

The institutional traders and hedge funds have access to order flow data, dark pool information, and economic indicators hours or even days before retail traders see them. They know where the big money is positioned, where the leverage is concentrated, and exactly when to strike for maximum damage to retail accounts.

Meanwhile, retail traders are getting their information from financial news websites that are already hours behind the real action. By the time CNBC reports on a currency movement, the institutions have already positioned themselves for the next move. This information gap means that passive, long-term currency positions are sitting ducks for informed money to pick off whenever it’s convenient.

Adapt or Get Destroyed

The solution isn’t to avoid the forex market – it’s to learn how to trade it properly. Study price action, understand support and resistance levels, and learn to read market sentiment through tools like the COT reports and currency strength meters. Follow economic calendars religiously, and understand how different news events affect different currency pairs.

Most importantly, learn proper risk management. Use position sizing that won’t destroy your account when you’re wrong, and always have predetermined exit points for both profits and losses. The traders who survive in this environment are the ones who treat each trade as a calculated risk, not a long-term investment thesis.

The market will continue to evolve, and it will continue to become more challenging for passive investors. Those who refuse to adapt their approach will find their accounts systematically drained by more sophisticated market participants. Learn to trade actively, or watch your capital disappear into the pockets of those who do.

Forex Position Size – Volatility Part 1

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Everyone’s ability to manage risk is different, and risk tolerance varies from trader to trader. When considering “how much risk” you are willing to take in any given trade – obviously the “size of your position” is paramount. Coupled with the stop level ” (or in my case mental stop level – as I usually don’t use stops) a trader should know exactly how much money they are willing to risk / lose in any given trade – long before initiating it.

A general rule for new traders is to consider a “fixed percentage” of your total account (for example 2%) and plan your trades accordingly – never risking more than 2% on single given trade. So a 50k account for example with 2% risk would allow for a 1k loss on any given trade. If one full lot was purchased of NZD/USD  a full 100 pip stop would be used.

I do not trade like this.

When trading foreign exchange it is virtually impossible ( at least for newcomers) to enter the market, and not see the trade go against you almost immediately. This is due to the short-term VOLATILITY in forex trading ( not necessarily a bad trade entry) and must be taken into consideration when figuring out your position size. Some currency pairs range as much as 50 or 60 pips on even a 15 minute time frame – and could range as high as 150 pips on a daily time frame. If you entered a trade in the right direction but only a single day too early – does this mean you where wrong? Of course not. Although without understanding the inherent volatility, you may very likely get stopped out and/or abort an excellent trade idea based on a “little slip” in your timing.

A forex trader must understand the given volatility in each and every individual currency pair they trade – as each exhibit unique characteristics – and in turn adjust position size accordingly.

I would use a much smaller position size trading a pair that ranges 100 + pips a day, than I might in trading a pair that only ranges 30 pips a day. A trader must learn to study each currency pair on its own, and come to learn its individual characteristics.

I get alot of questions about this and the topic could likely run on for several more posts – so for today I’m going to call this Part 1, and plan to let you know how I “position size” on a coming post.

Welcome back everyone – and good luck here in the new year!

Understanding Volatility Patterns: The Foundation of Smart Position Sizing

Currency Pair Classifications and Their Trading Implications

Not all currency pairs are created equal, and this fundamental truth should drive every position sizing decision you make. The majors – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF – typically exhibit different volatility patterns than the commodity currencies like AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD. The commodity pairs can swing 80-120 pips in a single session when their underlying commodities are making moves, while EUR/USD might only range 40-60 pips on the same day. This isn’t random market noise – it’s predictable behavior based on the underlying economies and market structure.

Take GBP/JPY, for instance. This cross can easily move 150+ pips in a day during times of uncertainty or major economic releases. If you’re sizing your positions the same way you would for EUR/USD, you’re setting yourself up for unnecessary stress and potential account damage. The Japanese yen’s safe-haven status combined with the pound’s sensitivity to political and economic developments creates a volatile cocktail that demands respect through smaller position sizes.

Time-Based Volatility and Session Overlap Strategy

Volatility isn’t just about which pair you’re trading – it’s about when you’re trading it. The London-New York overlap from 8 AM to 12 PM EST is where most of the real money gets made and lost. During this four-hour window, average daily ranges can expand by 60-80% compared to the quiet Asian session. If you’re entering positions during the overlap, you need to account for this increased volatility in your position sizing calculations.

The Asian session, particularly during the Tokyo lunch hour, can lull traders into a false sense of security with its narrow ranges. But here’s the kicker – many of the best breakout moves happen when London opens and encounters these compressed ranges. Smart traders understand this rhythm and adjust their risk accordingly. A position that seems perfectly sized during quiet Asian trading can quickly become oversized when London comes online with fresh economic data or central bank communications.

Economic Event Impact on Position Sizing

Central bank meetings, Non-Farm Payrolls, inflation data – these events can turn a normally calm currency pair into a bucking bronco. The week leading up to a Federal Reserve meeting, for example, typically sees increased volatility across all USD pairs as positioning and speculation ramp up. This isn’t the time to be running your standard position sizes, regardless of what your 2% rule tells you.

I’ve seen traders get completely blindsided by events like surprise central bank interventions or emergency rate decisions. The Swiss National Bank’s removal of the EUR/CHF peg in 2015 moved that pair over 2,000 pips in minutes. Standard position sizing rules become meaningless in these scenarios. The key is recognizing when you’re trading in a high-probability event environment and scaling back accordingly, even if it means missing some potential profits.

The Correlation Factor Most Traders Ignore

Here’s where most traders shoot themselves in the foot without realizing it: they ignore currency correlations when calculating their total risk exposure. You might think you’re risking 2% on EUR/USD and another 2% on GBP/USD, keeping within your risk parameters. But when both pairs move in lockstep during a broad USD trend, you’re actually risking closer to 4% on essentially the same trade.

The same applies to commodity currency correlations. AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move together, especially during risk-on and risk-off scenarios. Adding CAD pairs to the mix when oil is driving sentiment means you could have three “different” trades that are really just one leveraged bet on commodity sentiment. Smart position sizing means looking at your total portfolio exposure, not just individual trade risk.

Understanding these correlation dynamics becomes even more critical during major market themes like trade wars, pandemic responses, or energy crises. When macro themes dominate, individual currency fundamentals take a backseat to broader risk sentiment, and your carefully calculated individual position sizes can quickly add up to dangerous portfolio-level exposure. This is why professional traders often reduce position sizes across correlated pairs rather than treating each trade in isolation.

Currencies or Stocks – Who Leads Who?

Forex Kong 2 Comments

By the time you hear that “stocks are going higher” I can assure you – I am selling you my shares. Right around the time your broker calls and suggests that “now is a good time to buy gold” guess what? – I’m unloading. Your T.V provides you with the exact information needed  – to empty your bank account and fill mine. The entire system is a complete scam and oddly….you still keep asking yourself – what am I doing wrong?

It’s bigger than you. You can’t win. Stop now. Give up. Don’t quit your day job and god help you if your wife finds out you just bought Apple. Well…..truth be known – you can win. Don’t give up ( but seriously…don’t quit your day job) and be proud of your recent Apple purchase.

Turn off your T.V and Internet for one week, then ask yourself – “do I really know what I am investing in/what I am doing?” Seriously…..do you really think you know what you are doing?

I like to use the analogy of boats on the ocean – where currencies are a gigantic cruise ship and U.S equities are a speedboat. Sure there are waves (in this case volatility) but it takes a long time to turn the cruise ship around, while the speedboat is already sinking. Fact of the matter is – currency markets are far more stable than equities, and it takes more than a rainy day and a little storm to put that cruise ship on its side.

Granted I think you can get a speedboat/license,  and be out on the water in a  in an afternoon  – where as… not every Tom Dick and Harry putz around in a cruise ship. Fair enough.

I promise you – keeping your eyes on the currency markets ( and not just the silly EUR/USD ‘cuz they’ve got you on that one too) should keep you one step ahead of the next guy.

Check this out:

EUR_NZD_Forex_Trading

 

Why Currency Markets Are Your Secret Weapon Against the Noise

The Real Money Flows While You’re Watching Stock Tickers

Here’s what they don’t tell you about that cruise ship analogy – while you’re getting seasick watching Tesla bounce around like a ping pong ball, the smart money is quietly positioning in currency markets that move $7.5 trillion daily. That’s trillion with a T. Your entire stock market? Maybe $200 billion on a good day. The forex market doesn’t care about your favorite tech stock or whether some CEO tweets about dog coins at 3 AM. It moves on central bank policies, interest rate differentials, and actual economic fundamentals that take months to shift.

When the Federal Reserve hints at raising rates, the USD/JPY doesn’t just randomly spike – it moves because hedge funds and institutions are repositioning billions based on carry trade opportunities. While retail traders are panic-buying the latest meme stock, professional money is flowing into currencies that offer real yield advantages. The Japanese yen sits at near-zero rates while the U.S. dollar offers 5%+ – that’s not speculation, that’s math.

Beyond EUR/USD: Where the Real Opportunities Hide

They’ve got you trained like a circus animal to only watch EUR/USD because it’s “liquid” and “easy to understand.” Wrong. That’s exactly where institutional algorithms are designed to shake out retail traders every single day. The real opportunities are hiding in pairs like USD/NOK, AUD/NZD, or GBP/CAD – currencies tied to actual commodity flows, interest rate cycles, and economic fundamentals that can’t be manipulated by a single tweet or earnings miss.

Take the Norwegian krone – it moves with oil prices because Norway’s economy depends on energy exports. When crude rallies, NOK strengthens. It’s not rocket science, but it’s also not plastered across CNBC every five minutes. The Australian dollar correlates with Chinese demand for iron ore and copper. New Zealand’s currency follows dairy prices and agricultural cycles. These are real, measurable economic relationships that persist over time, not the flavor-of-the-week momentum plays that leave your stock portfolio looking like a crime scene.

Central Banks Telegraph Their Moves – If You Know How to Listen

Here’s the ultimate insider secret hiding in plain sight: central bankers tell you exactly what they’re going to do, months in advance. They publish meeting minutes, give speeches, and release economic projections. The Bank of England doesn’t suddenly surprise markets with rate cuts – they spend weeks preparing the ground with dovish commentary. The European Central Bank doesn’t shock anyone with quantitative easing announcements – they leak trial balloons through unnamed officials for months beforehand.

While stock traders are trying to guess whether Apple will beat earnings by a penny, forex traders are positioning for policy shifts that were telegraphed six months ago. When the Reserve Bank of Australia starts talking about “labor market tightness” and “inflation pressures,” that’s your signal that AUD strength is coming. When the Bank of Japan mentions “currency volatility concerns,” they’re preparing you for intervention levels in USD/JPY. This isn’t speculation – it’s reading the roadmap they literally publish for free.

The Volatility Myth That Keeps You Poor

They’ve convinced you that forex is “too risky” and “too volatile” while encouraging you to buy individual stocks that can gap down 20% overnight on an earnings miss. Think about that logic for five seconds. The EUR/USD might move 100 pips in a day during major economic releases – that’s 1% if you’re not using excessive leverage. Meanwhile, your growth stocks routinely swing 5-10% daily on absolutely nothing but algorithmic trading and retail sentiment.

Major currency pairs trade within established ranges for months at a time. USD/CHF has spent years bouncing between 0.90 and 1.00. GBP/USD rarely breaks outside of 1.20-1.40 for extended periods. These are bounded, mean-reverting markets with centuries of historical data to guide your decisions. Your favorite tech stock? It didn’t exist 10 years ago and might not exist in the next 10. But people have been trading dollars, pounds, euros, and yen for decades based on fundamental economic relationships that persist across business cycles.

Stop playing their rigged game. Start thinking like the cruise ship, not the speedboat.

Forex Charts – Gaps Get Filled

Forex Kong Got something to say?

There is much debate on the subject of “gaps” in charts, and  it’s been my experience that the vast majority of these gaps do indeed get filled. A large percentage (somewhere around 80%) filled during the following day of trading.

A gap in a chart is essentially an empty space between one trading period and the previous trading period. They usually form because of an important and material event that affects the given security, such as an earnings surprise or a merger or in the case of foreign exchange – announcements pertaining to a given countries monetary policy.

Incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kept up his calls on Tuesday for the Bank of Japan to drastically ease monetary policy by setting an inflation target of 2 percent, and repeated that he wants to tame the strong yen to help revive the economy. Abe, a security hardliner who will be sworn in as premier on Wednesday, when he is also expected to appoint his cabinet, is prescribing a mix of aggressive monetary policy easing and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and rein in the strong yen.

This has produced some very large gaps in nearly every single YEN (JPY) chart I follow – as well as over 7% account profits practically overnight. Generally these kinds of “gifts” don’t fall in your lap very often, and I have a hard standing rule to take this off the table immediately – and then likely wait for the gaps (in some cases 80 pips) to be filled as price dips back down to fill the “empty space” before resuming its trend.

I am expecting the dollar to make its last stand here sometime this week – and then roll over hard into its next leg down – while risk in general looks  full steam ahead . The Yen crosses have been absolutely fantastic and are now either on the cusp of full-scale break out, or a possible breather. I am planning to stay on aggressively until proven otherwise – booking profits along the way, and jumping back in the trade.

Strategic Positioning for the Yen Reversal Trade

The Technical Setup Behind Gap-Fill Opportunities

When analyzing these massive JPY gaps, the key is understanding the underlying market structure that makes gap fills so probable. The overnight surge we witnessed wasn’t just political theater – it represented a fundamental shift in carry trade dynamics that had been building for months. Smart money recognizes that gaps of 80+ pips create vacuum zones that price inevitably wants to revisit. The EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY crosses are particularly susceptible to this phenomenon because they carry the dual burden of their base currency fundamentals plus the yen’s monetary policy shifts. I’m watching the 50% retracement levels of these gaps as critical decision points. If we see swift rejection at these levels during the next few sessions, it confirms the gap-fill thesis and provides an excellent re-entry opportunity for the continuation move higher.

Dollar Weakness: The Catalyst for Cross-Currency Explosions

The dollar’s impending rollover creates a perfect storm scenario for yen crosses. While Abe’s inflation targeting weakens the yen from one side, dollar weakness amplifies the effect exponentially across all major pairs. The USD/JPY is sitting at a critical inflection point where a break above 84.50 could trigger algorithmic buying that pushes us toward 87.00 within days. But here’s the crucial element most traders miss – the real money isn’t just in USD/JPY. The cross-currency plays like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY offer superior risk-reward because they benefit from both yen weakness AND commodity currency strength as risk appetite returns. These pairs have been coiled springs for months, and Abe’s policy shift just lit the fuse. The technical patterns show classic cup-and-handle formations that, combined with the fundamental backdrop, create high-probability breakout scenarios.

Risk Management in Volatile Policy-Driven Markets

The 7% overnight account gain exemplifies why disciplined profit-taking is non-negotiable in policy-driven volatility. These moves can reverse just as quickly as they develop, especially when central bank officials walk back their rhetoric or markets interpret statements differently than intended. My approach involves scaling out positions in thirds – taking the first third off immediately after major gaps, the second third at technical resistance levels, and letting the final third run with a trailing stop. This methodology preserved capital during the Swiss National Bank’s EUR/CHF floor removal and the Brexit vote aftermath. For the current yen situation, I’m using the 200-day moving average on each cross as my trailing stop reference point. The key is maintaining position size that allows you to sleep at night while still capturing the full magnitude of these policy shifts. Risk per trade should never exceed 2% of account equity, regardless of how “certain” the setup appears.

Macro Positioning for the Next Phase

Beyond the immediate gap-fill trades, this yen reversal signals a broader shift in global risk dynamics that savvy traders can exploit for months ahead. Abe’s 2% inflation target isn’t just monetary policy – it’s a declaration of currency war that forces other central banks to respond. The European Central Bank will face increasing pressure to ease policy as the yen’s decline threatens European export competitiveness. This creates a domino effect where the dollar becomes the last man standing among major currencies, setting up its inevitable decline as the Federal Reserve realizes they cannot fight global deflationary forces alone. The trade sequence becomes clear: ride the yen weakness until technical exhaustion, then pivot to dollar shorts against emerging market currencies and commodity dollars. The Brazilian real and Mexican peso are particularly attractive targets as their central banks have room to cut rates once global risk appetite fully returns. This isn’t a two-week trade – it’s a six-month strategic positioning that could define portfolio returns for the entire year. The gap fills are just the appetizer before the main course of sustained currency trend reversals.

End Of The World – Kong Attends

Forex Kong 2 Comments

The world isn’t going to end….. so for those of you hoping to take the “easy way out” of your current gold positions – please……if only it where that easy.

The Solstice on December 21, 2012 ~ precisely at 11:11 AM Universal Time ~ marks the completion of the 5,125 year Great Cycle of the Ancient Maya Long Count Calendar. Rather than being a linear end-point, the cycle that is closing is naturally followed by the start of a new cycle. What this new cycle has in store for humanity is a mystery that has yet to unfold…

2012 is also considered the completion of the 26,000 year Precession of the Equinoxes cycle, and some say it also signifies the end of a 104,000 year cycle. That is some serious SERIOUS math on the part of the Maya – and as an avid student of “all things Maya” I will be in attendance at the ruins of Tulum  – here on the Mayan Riviera, Yucatan Mexico.

As my spaceship is still in “ill repair” perhaps my fellow space brothers will make an appearance, saving me some time and effort. We’ll see……but if all things go right – well…………  “It’s been a slice!”

I wish you all the best of luck with your trading, and encourage  you to continue looking to the future – as the past will provide little guidance for the “financial reckoning” coming soon to a theatre near you.

Kong…………(literally) Gone.

The Financial Reckoning: Trading Beyond the Great Cycle

Gold’s False Promise in a Fiat Currency World

While you’re clutching those gold positions like ancient Mayan codices, understand this: the precious metals game has fundamentally shifted. The dollar’s reserve currency status isn’t disappearing with some mystical calendar transition. Central banks globally continue their coordinated monetary expansion, but gold’s traditional hedge properties are being systematically dismantled by sophisticated currency interventions. The Swiss National Bank’s euro peg, the Bank of Japan’s relentless yen weakening, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion create cross-currents that make gold a relic of 20th-century thinking. Smart money isn’t hiding in metals—it’s riding the currency volatility waves these policies generate. The EUR/CHF carry trades, USD/JPY momentum plays, and emerging market currency dislocations offer exponentially better risk-adjusted returns than sitting on barbarous relics.

The Maya understood cycles, but they didn’t have to contend with algorithmic trading systems that can move billions in microseconds. Modern forex markets operate on technological cycles measured in nanoseconds, not millennia. Your gold position is fighting yesterday’s inflation war while tomorrow’s currency wars are being fought with derivatives, swaps, and coordinated central bank interventions that make traditional safe-haven assets obsolete.

Currency Wars and the New Cycle Reality

This “new cycle” isn’t about cosmic alignment—it’s about the death of traditional monetary relationships. The 26,000-year precession means nothing to the Swiss National Bank when they’re defending 1.2000 in EUR/CHF with infinite francs. The real cycles traders need to understand are the 8-year commodity super-cycles, the 18-month central bank policy cycles, and the 4-hour algorithmic rebalancing cycles that actually move markets. Brazil’s real, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar are dancing to commodity rhythm while the yen weakens on demographic destiny. These are your trading cycles, not ancient astronomical phenomena.

The Japanese yen’s structural decline isn’t stopping for Mayan prophecies. Demographics don’t lie—Japan’s aging population creates an inexorable current toward currency debasement. The USD/JPY pair has structural tailwinds that make short-term pullbacks mere entry opportunities for the larger trend. Similarly, the European debt crisis creates persistent EUR weakness against the dollar, regardless of temporary technical rallies. Trade the structural forces, not the mystical ones.

Emerging Market Currency Opportunities

While developed market currencies engage in coordinated devaluation, emerging market currencies offer the real asymmetric opportunities. The Brazilian real’s yield advantage, coupled with commodity exposure, creates compelling carry trade opportunities for those willing to stomach volatility. The Mexican peso benefits from manufacturing reshoring and NAFTA trade advantages that strengthen over multi-year timeframes. These currencies aren’t moving based on ancient calendar completions—they’re responding to capital flows, trade balances, and relative economic growth differentials.

The Chinese yuan’s gradual internationalization represents the actual “new cycle” worth trading. As China opens its capital account and allows greater currency flexibility, the USD/CNY pair will experience volatility that dwarfs any mystical 2012 predictions. Smart traders are positioning for this structural shift, not hedging against apocalyptic scenarios with gold purchases.

Technical Analysis in the Age of Algorithmic Dominance

Forget Mayan astronomy—modern forex markets move on algorithm-generated technical levels that create self-fulfilling prophecies. The EUR/USD’s 1.3000 psychological level, USD/JPY’s 100.00 barrier, and GBP/USD’s 1.6000 resistance aren’t arbitrary numbers—they’re algorithmic trigger points where billions in stop-losses and option barriers create explosive price action. Understanding these technical levels provides more predictive power than any ancient calendar system.

High-frequency trading systems have compressed traditional technical analysis timeframes. What once took weeks now happens in minutes. The smart trader adapts to this reality, using shorter timeframes for entry and exit while maintaining longer-term directional bias based on fundamental currency drivers. The “financial reckoning” isn’t some mystical event—it’s the ongoing evolution of markets toward greater speed, efficiency, and algorithmic dominance. Trade with the machines, not against them, and certainly not based on ancient prophecies that have zero correlation with currency price action.