It’s not for everyone…I understand.
I assume that some (if not most) of you…… likely have a number of other responsibilities that far outweigh your interest here…….your interest in trading and investing. Interest in the flow of money ’round this silly little planet……interest in gold, china, space exploration, nano technology, conotoxins, robotics, ancient cultures, nitrifying bacteria, the particle zoo etc…..
I do understand….and I digress.
The volatility circling ´round this “historic eve” has provided opportunity for the nimble – those of us with little responsibility……other than the occasional glance at our computer screens, on the way to the fridge to grab another cold beer.
I will look to re enter the exact same trades I went to cash with earlier today in that….fundamentally…nothin has changed. Just the usual “zigs n zags” – for those willing and able – to keep things nimble.
Reading the Market’s Emotional Temperature
The beauty of these volatile swings isn’t in the chaos itself—it’s in recognizing the underlying rhythm beneath all that surface noise. While retail traders panic and institutional money plays defensive, we’re sitting here with cold beer in hand, watching the same patterns unfold that have been repeating for decades. The market doesn’t care about your mortgage payment or your kid’s soccer practice. It moves based on liquidity flows, central bank positioning, and the eternal dance between fear and greed.
When I mention going back into the exact same trades, I’m not talking about stubborn hope or averaging down into losses. I’m talking about conviction based on understanding that short-term volatility rarely changes the fundamental thesis. If the dollar was weakening against the yen due to interest rate differentials and risk-off sentiment last week, a single day of whipsaw action doesn’t magically reverse those macro forces. The USDJPY doesn’t suddenly forget about carry trade dynamics because some algorithm went haywire during London open.
The Fundamental Thesis Remains Intact
This is where most traders lose their shirts—they mistake market noise for market signals. Every tick becomes meaningful, every red candle becomes a trend reversal, every talking head on financial television becomes a prophet. Meanwhile, the real money flows continue their patient march in the direction they were already heading. Central banks don’t change policy based on daily volatility. China doesn’t alter its currency manipulation strategy because of overnight futures action. The European Central Bank doesn’t suddenly discover fiscal responsibility because the euro had a bad Tuesday.
When you understand that currencies move based on relative strength—not absolute performance—you start seeing through the daily drama. If both the pound and the euro are weakening, but sterling is falling faster due to Brexit uncertainty and political instability, then EURGBP continues its structural uptrend regardless of whether both currencies got hammered against the dollar on any given day. The relative game continues playing out exactly as expected.
Nimble Doesn’t Mean Reckless
There’s a crucial distinction between being nimble and being reactive. Nimble means having the flexibility to step aside when volatility becomes irrational, then stepping back in when the dust settles and the original setup reasserts itself. Reactive means changing your entire market view every time price moves against you for five minutes. Nimble traders understand that sometimes the best action is no action—sitting in cash while the market sorts itself out isn’t giving up, it’s tactical patience.
The ability to exit and re-enter the same trade with confidence comes from having done the homework beforehand. When you know why the Australian dollar should weaken against the Swiss franc—commodity price trends, interest rate trajectories, safe haven flows during risk-off periods—then temporary strength in AUDCHF becomes an opportunity to get better entry prices, not a reason to abandon the trade entirely. The market will eventually align with the fundamental reality; your job is simply to position yourself accordingly and wait.
Historic Eves and Market Memory
Markets have short memories but long patterns. Every generation of traders thinks their particular crisis is unprecedented, their volatility is historic, their challenges are unique. Meanwhile, the currencies keep dancing to the same old song—supply and demand, inflation and deflation, growth and contraction, stability and chaos. The specific headlines change, but the underlying forces remain remarkably consistent.
What makes certain periods feel “historic” is usually just the compression of normal market movements into shorter timeframes. Instead of trends playing out over months, they accelerate into weeks. Instead of gradual currency adjustments, we get violent snapbacks and overextensions. But the destination remains the same—market forces eventually reassert themselves, imbalances get corrected, and currencies find their appropriate relative values based on economic fundamentals.
So while everyone else is getting emotional about the zigs and zags, we’re focused on the bigger picture. The same trades that made sense yesterday will likely make sense tomorrow, assuming the underlying reasons for those trades haven’t fundamentally changed. And in most cases, they haven’t—they’ve just gotten temporarily obscured by market noise and emotional volatility.