Planning The Attack – The Power Of Cash

Being 100% in cash is one of the best feelings a trader can have. You’ve reduced your risk to absolutely zero and have effectively “brought the soldiers home” – now free to do any number of things. You can choose to take a break – if that’s whats needed. You can regroup / step back and take a new look at the field. You can heal (if by chance your last battle has left the troops – how shall we say….”defeated”?) – or you can use the opportunity to do what I always do. What I always do!

Plan the next attack.

There is no room for complacency anymore. The times of making an investment decision and “checkin on it next month” are well behind us now – anyone suggesting otherwise is a complete and total fool. If investing is a battle – then we are at war every single minute of every single day, for the rest of  our god given lives – period. Accept it….deal with it – own it.

My plan (oh yes – you guessed it) is to get on the offensive, mobilize the troops and “take it to em” with everything I’ve got. You see……the enemy has already shown it’s hand. Giant “printing presses” now in place along the lines. Aimed at the sky with such power and might as to “rain down dollars” on the innocent children and families below.

The plan is flawed. And the spoils of war will soon go to those who have found ways to move quickly through the trenches, stay nimble, alert – and attack when given opportunity.

I plan to get ridiculously short the dollar in coming days – and expect and equally powerful move upward in all asset classes – as the “rain of dollars” floods markets and trenches alike….

What’s your plan?

 

(Seriously everyone – lets try to get in here this week and contribute – good or bad etc……lets hear what everybody’s thinking – It says “leave a reply” so……LEAVE ONE!)

The Dollar Debasement Strategy: Tactical Execution for Maximum Impact

Currency Pairs That Will Lead the Charge

When the printing presses fire up at full capacity, you don’t want to be caught holding the bag. The dollar debasement trade isn’t some theoretical concept – it’s happening right now, and smart money is already positioning. EUR/USD becomes your primary weapon in this battle. Every central bank meeting, every inflation print, every whisper about quantitative easing programs pushes this pair higher. The Europeans may have their own problems, but when it comes to currency debasement races, the Fed has shown they’re willing to go nuclear first.

Don’t sleep on the commodity currencies either. AUD/USD and NZD/USD turn into rocket ships when dollar weakness combines with inflationary pressures. These aren’t just currency trades – they’re inflation hedges wrapped in leveraged packages. The Aussie and Kiwi central banks can’t print their way out of problems the same way the Fed can, which makes their currencies relatively scarce when the dollar flood gates open. CAD/USD follows the same playbook, especially when oil prices start climbing on the back of dollar weakness.

Timing the Attack: Technical Levels That Matter

Being right about direction means nothing if your timing is garbage. The DXY – the dollar index – has key technical levels that separate the amateurs from the professionals. When DXY breaks below 92, that’s your signal that the dam is cracking. Below 90, and you’re looking at a full-scale rout that could last months. These aren’t arbitrary numbers – they represent massive institutional stops and algorithmic triggers that create cascading moves.

On the flip side, EUR/USD breaking above 1.20 with conviction isn’t just a technical breakout – it’s a psychological warfare victory. The market starts believing the dollar weakness story, and belief creates its own momentum. Same principle applies to GBP/USD at 1.35 and USD/JPY falling below 105. These levels matter because they trigger systematic selling programs that amplify moves far beyond what fundamental analysis alone would suggest.

Watch the weekly charts like a hawk. Daily noise will shake you out of perfectly good positions, but weekly trends in currency markets can run for quarters, not weeks. When you see weekly closes above major resistance in the anti-dollar trades, that’s when you add to positions, not when you take profits.

Risk Management in Currency Warfare

Here’s where most traders get slaughtered – they confuse being right with being reckless. Dollar debasement trades can run massive distances, but they don’t move in straight lines. Central bank intervention can destroy leveraged positions overnight. Swiss National Bank proved that in 2015 when they obliterated EUR/CHF shorts without warning. The lesson: never risk more than you can afford to lose on any single currency position, regardless of how obvious the trade appears.

Position sizing becomes critical when volatility spikes. Currency markets can gap 200-300 pips on major announcements or geopolitical events. Your position size should reflect the reality that stops don’t always get filled where you place them. Risk 1-2% of your account per trade maximum, and scale into positions rather than going all-in at once. The dollar debasement story might take months to fully play out – you need staying power, not just conviction.

The Macro Picture: Why This Time is Different

Every trader thinks their current trade is “different this time” but the fiscal and monetary policy combination we’re seeing now genuinely breaks historical norms. Government spending programs combined with zero interest rate policies and quantitative easing create a perfect storm for currency debasement. The Fed isn’t just lowering rates – they’re buying everything in sight and explicitly targeting higher inflation.

International capital flows tell the story better than any technical analysis. When foreign central banks start reducing their Treasury holdings and dollar reserves, that’s institutional confirmation of the debasement thesis. Watch the weekly Treasury International Capital flows data. When those numbers turn consistently negative, you know the global monetary system is shifting away from dollar dominance.

The beauty of this setup is that it’s self-reinforcing. Dollar weakness drives commodity prices higher, which increases inflation expectations, which forces the Fed to maintain loose policy longer, which weakens the dollar further. It’s a feedback loop that can run for years once it gains momentum. Position accordingly.

12 Responses

  1. kreks November 25, 2012 / 3:21 pm

    Well I’m planning on holding onto my short-term silver long a day or two more. I got into the trade mid last week and didn’t really expect it to pop like it did Friday (I’m actually kinda bummed I missed putting on more, but I was fast asleep when it all happened… Trading from Melbourne sucks sometimes).

    I’d be surprised not to see a little follow through of momentum Monday, but with equities so short-term overbought and the DX about to tag 80, I agree that we should get some consolidation / pull back mid week. At that point I will “assemble the soldiers” for the next setup.

    Have a good week!

    • Forex Kong November 25, 2012 / 4:47 pm

      I bet you could hold that long silver play through next week Krek – and then be off to the races – but…..take it as you see it.

      I trade from Mexico and at times – it sucks from here too…damn forex markets. Sounds like you are right on track – and will likely do well in coming days.

  2. hf November 25, 2012 / 4:43 pm

    I am 2 % invested (including my GDX calls) so will watch and wait and learn from those on the threads. My thought is maybe to add GLD on a down day (if and when) and try to flip it.

    • Forex Kong November 25, 2012 / 4:49 pm

      If you’ve got cash sitting in reserve – you are the king. Adding to gold here on any weakness is lookin good to me too – pending you can stay on board. Make sure to watch any over leveraged plays everyone!

      Go easy make nice right?

  3. Ben November 25, 2012 / 8:28 pm

    Holding GDX and NUGT calls over here. I’m still trying to understand the relationship between the miners indices and GLD. Sometimes they’re in unison, and sometimes they go different ways.

    • Forex Kong November 25, 2012 / 9:10 pm

      Ben….lets pull it apart in greater detail over the coming week….but in general – gld tracks the price of “physical gold”…ie price per ounce. The GDX etf is comprised of a collection of “mining companies” – and in turn tracks the overall performance of those companies specifically.

      Gold could sky rocket….but what if mining costs / other paramenters inhibit profits?….the miners could most certainly suffer – regarldess of the price of gold no?

  4. schmederling November 25, 2012 / 10:16 pm

    I have never been a fan of miners – there is an old saying ” at the top of every hole there is a liar” I know many involved in the PM sector are positioned for miners to go higher and outperform the base metal. This could be very true – they are undervalued & have been for some time & have generally underperformed historically Perhaps now is there time to shine – I do hold positions but and diversified – I have had the most success in silver – although the little brother is highly volatile and requires steady nerves especially with leverage. I have found however it also provides excellent returns & will continue to own the majority of my PF.

    • kreks November 25, 2012 / 11:10 pm

      I agree… why bother with miners when you can trade gold in a liquid 24-hour market?!

  5. DojiTrader November 26, 2012 / 2:23 am

    Hi FK, so you think the pull back in silver & gold will be shallow this week? maybe just enough to kiss the 50dma goodbye? (for gold; $1735, but slope = neg, or back to the 23% FIB or $1730? – and for silver these are: $32.92 for 50dma (almost flat) or $33.08 for 23% FIB?) – but not more than that?

    • Forex Kong November 26, 2012 / 7:47 am

      Doji,

      Im not really one for such “exact predictions” but in checking out the levels mentioned in the charts…it sure looks about right. I think the point being – we’ve seen the ugly sell off / last ditch in the PM’s – and whatever “dips” come next – should be bareable.

  6. Timeseller November 26, 2012 / 8:21 pm

    Have not seen silver act this solid for about a year. Surprises in a bull market mostly to the upside.Trying to exit to get in front of a three or four day pullback has cost me money on more occasions than not. Think I will just stay long.

    • Forex Kong November 26, 2012 / 11:02 pm

      Timseller,

      I am pretty sure holding long PM’s through and then beyond should be no problem at all ( as I too am holding GDX, NUGT , EXK etc…) You are 100% correct in your view of strength in silver.

      Im in and out of the currencies – but am holding all Pm’s.

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