Don’t you think market just changed to risk off mode?
Forex KongDecember 21, 2012 / 10:21 am
Well……despite the fall in equities prices overnight, and the tiny lil spike in the dollar (which was expected after as many down days) this just looks like normal market activity to me. So far the dollar has “popped” but is no where close to suggesting an actual change in trend (even as low as a 1hour time frame – USD is still clearly in a downtrend).
Gold and related stocks are actually pushing higher with the dollar, as the good ol SPY and DOW – scare the hell out of the general trade community with continued “media bullsh&t” surrounding the fiscal “spliff”.
Well, there was so much complacency in the market lately, but now it disappeared (take a look at VIX). Additionally commodities failed to rally despite risk on environment, and my mechanical system just signaled RIskOff phase. It had pretty good accuracy last few years. I bought long dated OTM puts on equity indexes because I think volatility is going to jump.
Forex KongDecember 21, 2012 / 10:48 am
I stopped watching / following VIX sometime ago as I feel that the underlaying idea of “QE Forever” has (as you’ve pointed out) put markets to sleep.
However I imagine when we get a “real change in trend” VIX will indeed change direction. Today’s action looks like a spike in my view – as VIX has had trouble breaking 20 for some time. I will be watching for any follow through – and in that case….perhaps a change in direction…but for today at least – Im calling it “range/spike”.
hfDecember 23, 2012 / 6:10 am
hello Forex and all…I am back with some gold and gold shares ( no call options this time round)…about 9.4 % allocation (that is nine point four)…my question is, I find it hard to understand the currency paired trades, generally speaking do you see the Yen going up or down and what about Japanese stocks, any thoughts there ?
thanks
hf
Forex KongDecember 23, 2012 / 8:19 am
HF!
I spent a considerable amount of time over the weekend researching Japanese stocks – and YES – just as one would assume U.S stocks will rise with further QE – then same should apply in Japan. The new / aggressive monetary easing in Japan cannot be ignored!
If currencies arent your thing – there are many other opportunities / ways to play Japan.
Don’t you think market just changed to risk off mode?
Well……despite the fall in equities prices overnight, and the tiny lil spike in the dollar (which was expected after as many down days) this just looks like normal market activity to me. So far the dollar has “popped” but is no where close to suggesting an actual change in trend (even as low as a 1hour time frame – USD is still clearly in a downtrend).
Gold and related stocks are actually pushing higher with the dollar, as the good ol SPY and DOW – scare the hell out of the general trade community with continued “media bullsh&t” surrounding the fiscal “spliff”.
What are you seeing?
Well, there was so much complacency in the market lately, but now it disappeared (take a look at VIX). Additionally commodities failed to rally despite risk on environment, and my mechanical system just signaled RIskOff phase. It had pretty good accuracy last few years. I bought long dated OTM puts on equity indexes because I think volatility is going to jump.
I stopped watching / following VIX sometime ago as I feel that the underlaying idea of “QE Forever” has (as you’ve pointed out) put markets to sleep.
However I imagine when we get a “real change in trend” VIX will indeed change direction. Today’s action looks like a spike in my view – as VIX has had trouble breaking 20 for some time. I will be watching for any follow through – and in that case….perhaps a change in direction…but for today at least – Im calling it “range/spike”.
hello Forex and all…I am back with some gold and gold shares ( no call options this time round)…about 9.4 % allocation (that is nine point four)…my question is, I find it hard to understand the currency paired trades, generally speaking do you see the Yen going up or down and what about Japanese stocks, any thoughts there ?
thanks
hf
HF!
I spent a considerable amount of time over the weekend researching Japanese stocks – and YES – just as one would assume U.S stocks will rise with further QE – then same should apply in Japan. The new / aggressive monetary easing in Japan cannot be ignored!
If currencies arent your thing – there are many other opportunities / ways to play Japan.
Google “Japan ETF’s”