Hey…..I trade for different reasons than you. I need to eat, I need to buy new shoes and I need to pay my bills – just like everyone else. The only difference being – this is my job! No trade = no money, and no money is no good.
I am extremely leery of this market as a whole – but need to continue pushing in order to keep money coming in. Regardless of market conditions I need to keep digging, work longer hours, get up earlier, read more, find ways to keep money coming in. Patience in placing trades, is a mastery of human psychology and an absolute “must have” for the successful trader – but times arise when one must rely on other skills, other means to keep that plan moving forward.
With over 25 – 30 currency pairs at my disposal, you’d think I’d be able to find a place to put a buck or two – in order to stick to the plan right? RIGHT. When you win as often as I do, this falls into a simple area / category as what I’d like to call “managed risk”. I made “x” number of dollars last month – and thus far I am willing to “risk x value of that” now – in order to keep the wheels turning. On a fundamental level I’m at odds with markets ( as we are so far stretched, all time highs, currency wars, etc) but can’t allow it to impede my abilities to extract cash.
THIS IS CALLED TRADING – NOT INVESTING.
I already know exactly how much money can / will lose – to the penny I’ve already lost it. I know it, I love it, I embrace it. That’s the psychology of it. That’s what keeps you in the game.
Kong gets short USD as well JPY against the Commods. I can ( and just as likely will) lose money.
Big freakin deal.
What are the commods
Hi Kevin.
The “commods” are those currencies associated with commodity producing countries….often called the ” Com Dolls” as well.
I’d rather you tell me – as you’d likely learn a pile more researching it.
So Kevin – what are the commodity related currencies?
AUD, CAD, NZD. are the com dolls. I assume this means that you are buying AUD/USD, CAD/USD,
NZD/USD shorting the futures or options or something.
Also do you have a set amount you are looking for on each trade or does each setup dictate what you are willing to risk/make ?
Thanks for the blog
Way to go Kevin! You got it.
So yes buying AUD/USD and NZD/USD as well AUD/JPY , NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY as well shorting USD/CAD – in a forex account – no options….no futures.
I don’t have a set amount – but I do manage my trade size based on the volatility as well the “average trading range” of a given pair. I do however look at spreading my risk over several pairs…and look at the “cumulative total” pips gained or lost. So for example….across all 6 páirs…if the profits are “x” number of pips….Ill blow out everything and book profits….regardless of which one may have moved more or less than another.
Great work Kevin…keep on learning.
Kong,
Your posts of late have been awesome. This site is maturing nicely. You have a great talent and have made your insights easy to digest. I am at your site several times a day gleaning in order to learn. I hope at some point I will be able to contribute. Like the fact you have been straight forward about how you support your idyllic lifestyle. Keep up the great work.
Wow…I could use more comments like this Graham. Thanks a tonne!
Kong
Forex,
what do you think about general stock market?… Is time to go short?… Best regards
Absolutely not – not even close.
My short term tech works to get me into trends and keep me out of sideway / grinding price action so…..the SP is still 100% complete uptrend in my view – likely heading to even higher highs before then getting very complicated / choppy / sideways / killer – for months following. Then short.
I will get to cash and sit out the initial moves – as these are designed to empty one’e account. I’ll be posting ALOT MORE on the coming waves of uncertainty soon!
Hi Kong
Yes, the markets are behaving very erratic at the moment – GBP going down, EUR going up……. And it seems the markets makers are not interested in the high interest currencies at the moment like my beloved aussie. I dont know if you trade harmonic patterns, but they are working quite well at the moment. Thanks for all the work you put into the website – I enjoy the read.
Hi Neil – thanks for stopping in – I really appreciate it.
I love the Aussie too! . but damn thing! – It just won’t get up and go, and in all has been quite surprising as of late. I keep banging away at it – but the moves have been small and a touch frustrating vs USD, but with huge wins vs JPY – I can’t complain.
I don’t trade harmonic patterns ( at least I don’t think I do!) but would love a look at what you are seeing and perhaps a quick run thru on it, as Im sure other readers might as well. Perhaps you can expand a bit.
Hey Kong
I am completely tech stupid – so how would I post a chart ?
Small problem there, as my blog doesn’t accept outbound links so…..hmmm….
I was hoping moreso for some reading / background on harmonic patterns. Tell you what..if you upload a chart “somewhere else” and place the link here….we can have a look.
Would IMG tags work so the chart displays in the comments section?
That sounds great! – Please give it a try….and I’ll catch it on this end.
HI FK
Nice work with the website. i admit im not a currency trader but i commend your profitability and your openness with your readers. Well done and great job at keeping everything constructive with a good crowd.
Cheers
Anthony
(Founder: Change-In-Trend)
Wow Anthony – Thanks so much, as this hasn’t been exactly “easy”.
Thus far I do better at the trading than the blogging but…..will just keep at it here and see how things go.
Please don’t be a stranger, as this “comment area” only exists if people with contributing ideas participate so – get in here!
Bogging is hard i hear you. It requires months of dedication and behind the scenes work. Attracting and keeping readers can be difficult. Sometimes i wonder actually how many traders are out there “really” and if so where are they at. LOL.
I can only really offer my equities market perspective from a timing and technical aspect which shows that we are in the process of forming a saw tooth top between now and the end of March with a low due in early May.
May only advice would be to persevere and what you put in will be matched by what you get out and maybe a little bit more.
Anthony
You bet Anthony – the blog is a challenge for sure – but I’m sticking with it.
Your analysis is great…as I as well see we are at a “top” and a “complicated one at that” so…..lets be careful.
“you get out – what you put in” – right?
Im all for that.
Kong – I have started shorting the DOW…. VIA DOG options into Aug…. will continue to add…. they are on the cheap…. I like to buy when it’s cheap. Will we CRASH by then…. maybe…. maybe not…. but we will go down….. The only CT I have left running is AUDUSD……long…..that will run until 1.06…
cheers Schmed…
Schmed – I was wondering where you’ve been.
You are a jumpy one thats for sure – The buck just rolled over on day 12 so….Im of the thinking we’ve got another cycle down as the top “blows off” (as per previous posts) so……..you are a brave man – my tech is no where near getting short.
I just got long markets and short the USD and JPY.
Did you get anything Kong? I posted but nothing happened?
[IMG]http://imageshack.us/a/img833/1999/eurusdf.jpg[/IMG]
Hi John.
Ill have to figure something out – as several others appear interested in posting, although I’ve seen several other blogs turn into a real mess with 8 million people posting their charts etc. I don’t reall ywant that to happen here so….let me think on it.
Yeah, that could be a problem. A million lines all over them that mean jack shiite.
Well, since it seems to be “love a gorilla day”, I’ll chip in as well to say congratulation on the 100+ posts, Kong. I really enjoy reading what you have to say and (increasingly) the comments from others. I’m in South America for a few months and getting used to the new timezone (previously I was in Melbourne) and trying to figure out how best to contribute to a forum such as this. I’ll get my ass into gear and start posting some ideas soon. Right now I’m focusing on very short-term intraday opportunities on 5/15M charts. It’s fun to be in a timezone where I can actually do that profitably!
Cheers
Kreks
It’s great having you Kreks – and yes…..please get in here and contribute when / where you can.
Where in South America man? – I’ve spent several years in and out of Colombia, and have plans for Peru and Bolivia here at some point. I’d love to hear of your experience.
As well….Im sure I can get in on some of that “short term trading” with you and possibly contribute an idea or two.
I’m trialling a short-term strategy using the 5 & 15 minute charts (today is literally Day 3) so need a couple more weeks to suss out if it’s worthwhile pursuing. It’s super-simple and I will be happy to share it as I don’t feel protective about it all.
Re other trading ideas – Here’s another one I’m watching – US 30yr Bond. Like you I’m looking ahead to how to play the “risk off” correction that will soon come. I like the look of the current sideways consolidation despite the ongoing downtrend. If we can continue to base or even sell off a little more (weakly) there will be a nice upmove when the stock rally finally peters out. Long bonds is also a QE-friendly trade, as I see it. Finally, a few sentiment indicators are also bullish. Right now I will buy the bond if it moves out of the sideways range above 144 with momentum. If it continues to decline, I will just monitor.
Re South America – my partner and I just landed in Buenos Aires two weeks ago … love this city and it’s delicious food, wine and nightlife. Here for a couple of weeks then touring around Northern Argentina (more wine) then hitting the beach in Rio for a month. Then a bit of the southern coast of Brazil before we head to Europe for the summer. Was initially intending to do Peru and Bolivia but it’s the rainy season, which “dampens” some of the fun outdoor options (Machu Pichu trail is closed even). So we’ll leave that for another time.
Cheers
kreks
PPS. Have you thought about a chat feature for the site? It’d be great to have somewhere to chat / exchange ideas in “real time” with other traders. If it’s not on your cards, can you recommend any other chat sites (I’m on SMT but I don’t find the level of discourse there particularly fun or useful!)
K
Perhaps “mind reading” is one of your many talents as I’ve been considering this as well.
To be honest, I’ve got many things to consider here before this thing gets any busier. I am quietly working away on the “new and improved” – but with only so many hours in the day – admitedly its going slower than originally anticipated. Plus I can’t stand spelling so……
Drop me the best email address for you – and we can hook it up via skype / mess or whatever in the short term.
Ok, let me just put one idea out there (probably pretty obvious to many) – This big drop in the NZD after the central bank comments that the NZD is overvalued is a BUYING opportunity once the selling climaxes. NZD has been ‘flavour of the month’ for a while and these things don’t normally just end because of one person’s comments. (He also said that the central bank can’t do much to bring down the NZD, despite what manufacturers want … however much people want to believe that.)
I couldnt have said it better Kreks. I’m long NZD vs USD and JPY as of yesterday – and a touch under water but……not particularily worried about it. Strong currency, strong economy and you said it – it’s just talk.
Kong, I’m a novice with currencies and wonder if they can be played successfully using ETF’s. If so, any specific suggestions?
The currency ETF’s such as FXY, FXE, FXA etc track the movement of the underlying pretty well. Only thing is – they are quite expensive. In my eyes very expensive. I believe the “allure” is to get people trading “options” on these ETF’s, which then has you subject to the options “gong show” as well as trading an ETF – AS WELL of an underlaying currency pair! Not my recommendation that’s for sure.
Thanks, that’s what I needed to know.