The Fed, Gold, Stocks and USD – Explained

The most reasonable explanation for the continued U.S dollar strength ( making a fool of good ol Kong here ) is two-fold in my view.

1. The massive amounts of liquidity provided by the Bank of Japan is most certainly spilling out  – and into U.S equities. In order to make those equity purchases – your foreign currencies need to be exchanged for US dollars ( through which ever institutions / brokerages these stock purchases are made) so as “hot money” looks to take advantage of the continued pumping of U.S equities by the FED and his “banksters”, USD goes along for the ride.

I have been considering a time when both USD and U.S equities would fall together ( and had assumed that time was now ), and now am even more certain of this market dynamic – as we clearly see the two continue to rise together.

How far it can go now is anyone’s guess as the upward break in USD coupled with the complete detachment of U.S stock prices from reality – have both blown right past/through any prior levels I had in mind. Chart patterns and lines of support and resistance have absolutely zero value in a market as rigged as this.

2.The Fed’s continued manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets ( in order to drive prices lower, and mask the massive dilution / devaluation of US dollars via 85 billion in printing per month) and artificially low-interest rates (providing “savers and retired folk” zero on their money) coupled with the massive bond purchasing program has achieved its goal in essentially “snuffing out” any other viable investment opportunity – other than the U.S stock market.

If the Fed was to stop buying U.S government debt or allow the price of Gold to accurately reflect the massive devaluation of the dollar – the entire thing would collapse within days.

Check out this chart of U.S Macro Data ( at it’s worst in 8 months ) compared to the S&P 500.

US_Macro_Data

US_Macro_Data

The higher this parabolic rise goes – the faster / harder it will fall, giving the Fed exactly what it wants……justification to print even more money.

One seriously needs to question – whose interests does the Fed truly serve?

Certainly not those of the American people.

 

The Broader Implications for Currency Markets and Trading Strategy

Currency Carry Trade Dynamics Fueling Dollar Dominance

What we’re witnessing isn’t just simple dollar strength – it’s a massive unwinding and rewinding of global carry trades that’s creating artificial demand for USD. The Bank of Japan’s zero interest rate policy has turned the yen into the ultimate funding currency, with institutional players borrowing yen at near-zero cost and plowing those funds into higher-yielding U.S. assets. This isn’t your grandfather’s carry trade where you’d buy AUD/JPY and collect a few percentage points overnight. We’re talking about leveraged institutional flows that dwarf retail forex volume by orders of magnitude.

The EUR/USD has become a casualty of this dynamic, with European money fleeing negative yield bonds and chasing the illusion of American growth. When you’ve got German 10-year bunds yielding less than U.S. 2-year notes, the path of least resistance for capital becomes crystal clear. The Swiss National Bank’s currency interventions and the ECB’s own quantitative easing programs have only accelerated this exodus, creating a feedback loop that strengthens the dollar regardless of underlying U.S. economic fundamentals.

The Commodity Currency Massacre

The manipulation of precious metals markets that Kong mentioned doesn’t exist in isolation – it’s part of a broader assault on commodity currencies that threatens the entire natural resource complex. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD have been obliterated not just by their own central banks’ dovish policies, but by the systematic suppression of commodity prices that undermines their entire economic foundation. When silver gets hammered down in coordinated paper market attacks, it sends shockwaves through the Australian dollar that have nothing to do with Australia’s actual economic performance.

The Canadian dollar faces a similar fate, caught between plummeting oil prices (courtesy of strategic petroleum reserve releases and financial market manipulation) and a Federal Reserve that’s essentially weaponized the dollar against commodity producers worldwide. USD/CAD breaking through key resistance levels isn’t technical analysis playing out – it’s economic warfare by other means. These moves create self-reinforcing cycles where commodity producers must sell even more of their output to service dollar-denominated debts, further pressuring both commodity prices and their currencies.

Interest Rate Differentials as Market Control Mechanisms

The Federal Reserve’s ability to maintain artificially low rates while simultaneously strengthening the dollar represents the ultimate monetary policy contradiction – one that can only exist in a rigged system. Traditional forex theory tells us that low interest rates should weaken a currency through reduced yield attraction, but we’re operating in an environment where the Fed has cornered the market on “safe haven” status through sheer monetary muscle.

Every other major central bank has been forced into competitive debasement, making dollar-denominated assets attractive not because of their inherent value, but because everything else has been systematically destroyed. The Bank of England, ECB, and Bank of Japan are all trapped in the same low-rate prison, unable to raise rates without triggering immediate capital flight to U.S. markets. This creates artificial interest rate differentials that have nothing to do with economic fundamentals and everything to do with coordinated policy manipulation.

The Inevitable Reckoning and Positioning for the Collapse

The parabolic nature of this dollar rally contains the seeds of its own destruction, but timing that reversal has become nearly impossible when fundamental analysis no longer applies. The dollar index breaking through multi-year highs while U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios explode and real economic indicators deteriorate represents the final phase of a monetary system in terminal decline. Smart money isn’t chasing this rally – they’re positioning for the inevitable collapse that must follow when the manipulation finally breaks down.

The key insight for serious traders is recognizing that traditional support and resistance levels, moving averages, and even economic data have become largely irrelevant in the face of coordinated central bank intervention. The real trade isn’t trying to catch the exact top of this manipulated dollar rally, but rather positioning for the systemic breakdown that occurs when the cost of maintaining these artificial market conditions exceeds even the Fed’s ability to suppress reality. When that dam finally breaks, the dollar won’t just decline – it will collapse alongside the equity markets it’s currently propping up, vindicating Kong’s original thesis with devastating swiftness.

4 Responses

  1. fuzzybid May 19, 2013 / 8:55 pm

    I dont think you far off kong check this money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
    It would only be really intresting if the usd follows it this time normally stocks down usd up so this is intresting.
    But the correlation was weird lately when the coms came down and eur and gbp whe saw yen falling and when the jpy gained strenght whe saw some usd weakness that was in the past different they moved in sync

    Also i am looking to buy some yen this week usdjpy @ huge level on the weekly charts zoomed out and when people might digest this piece from the econ minister i expect more comments to come might give the yen some decent correction e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20130519D19JF427.htm

  2. Derek May 20, 2013 / 6:18 pm

    Maybe that change in direction began today, Kong.

    Que piensas?

    • Forex Kong May 21, 2013 / 7:08 am

      Yo creo que……

      He he he…….as per usual here these days – USD still pushing my analysis to the test – both technically as well as fundamentally. The original breach of my “said level of resistance” certainly opened up the possibility of USD moving higher BUT – it’s now just taunting me as it again hovers at this level ( within a penny or two ).

      So – we’ve already made a pretty clear correlation that USD and U.S equities are moving in tandem, and I guess the question still remains……

      How much higher before a turn? Man – as per all my posting / charts / macro data analysis…this market topped out back in March – so anything happening here/now is no man’s land really.

      I’d love to tell you “yes of course! – today is the day!” but assume markets will trade flat moving into Thursday, and perhaps then …yes then! We’ll get even more shit data out of the U.S ( which is gauranteed ) and this thing thing will get back on the rails.

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