My “Intraday Trade Alert” seems to have caused a bit of comotion.
I thought it would be a reasonable idea to “follow-up” and quickly touch base on “where I’m at” a full 24 hours later. As per usual my “signal” was a tad early.
USD has most certainly “swung high” here as of this morning, and trades in USD/CHF as well USD/CAD are doing well, with USD/JPY still a tough nut to crack. The weakness in USD has been “surpassed” by even greater weakness in JPY, as the Nikkei Index pushed “once again” right up into it’s over head resistance area.
Would we be considering a full on “breakout” in risk here? And perhaps more importantly – how long would we expect this to last?
I find it a tad “unrealistic” that only days ahead of a proposed missile attack in the Middle East, that investors would be scrambling like mad to buy Japanese stocks no?
As well – considering the “safe haven” aspects of the Japanese Yen ( JPY ) I can only imagine it to “blast towards the moon” should we get firm word that indeed – war on.
Intraday activity is nearly impossible to pin down “forex wise” as these things never turn on a dime, and never happen “all at once”. Trading “small and wide” can make the difference in staying in the game – long enough to hit those “long smooth patches” we all dream about.
I’m very often early…..but rarely ever late.
Reading Between The Lines: Market Positioning Ahead of Geopolitical Chaos
The Swiss Franc Play: More Than Meets The Eye
Let’s dig deeper into that USD/CHF momentum I mentioned. The Swiss National Bank’s fingerprints are all over this pair, and smart money knows it. When you see USD/CHF pushing higher while geopolitical tensions simmer, you’re witnessing a delicate dance between safe haven flows and central bank intervention fears. The SNB has made it crystal clear they won’t tolerate excessive CHF strength, but here’s the kicker – they’re walking a tightrope. Every intervention threat loses potency when global risk-off sentiment kicks into overdrive. I’m watching the 0.9200 level like a hawk. Break below there with conviction, and we could see panic buying in CHF that makes the SNB’s job infinitely harder. The beauty of trading USD/CHF right now is the asymmetric risk profile – limited downside thanks to SNB backstops, but plenty of upside if USD strength persists.
The Canadian Dollar Disconnect: Oil vs Risk Sentiment
USD/CAD tells a fascinating story that most traders are missing entirely. Here’s crude oil sitting pretty above $90, yet the loonie can’t catch a bid against the dollar. This disconnect screams volumes about underlying market structure. The Bank of Canada’s hawkish rhetoric is pure theater when you consider household debt levels and housing market vulnerabilities. Smart money is positioning for a CAD breakdown that could accelerate quickly once oil demand concerns surface. I’m eyeing the 1.3650 resistance zone – clear that level and we’re looking at a run toward 1.3800 faster than most expect. The correlation breakdown between oil and CAD isn’t temporary; it’s structural. Energy sector capital flight and risk management deleveraging are creating opportunities for those paying attention.
The Yen Paradox: When Safe Havens Become Risk Assets
This is where it gets interesting – and potentially very profitable. The Japanese Yen’s traditional safe haven status is being challenged by a perfect storm of factors that create massive trading opportunities. The Bank of Japan’s yield curve control is a house of cards, and everyone knows it. With 10-year JGB yields kissing the 0.5% ceiling repeatedly, something has to give. But here’s the twist most traders are missing: when that dam breaks, the initial move might actually be JPY weakness, not strength. Why? Because the unwinding of the carry trade isn’t a light switch – it’s a process. Institutional players who’ve been short JPY for years don’t capitulate overnight. They scale out slowly, creating false breakouts and whipsaw action that destroys retail accounts. The real JPY strength comes later, when geopolitical events force genuine safe haven flows that overwhelm technical positioning.
Timing The Chaos: Why Early Entry Beats Perfect Entry
Being early isn’t a bug in my trading system – it’s a feature. Markets don’t wait for confirmation; they move on anticipation. That “unrealistic” risk-on behavior ahead of Middle East tensions? It’s not irrational – it’s institutional positioning before the storm. Big money doesn’t wait for CNN to announce missile strikes. They position based on intelligence flows and probability matrices that retail traders never see. My intraday alerts capture these institutional flows before they become obvious to everyone else. The Nikkei pushing into overhead resistance isn’t coincidence; it’s calculated positioning by players who understand that war premiums get priced in, then often fade as conflicts prove less economically disruptive than feared. The key is recognizing when markets are pricing in maximum pessimism versus maximum optimism. Right now, we’re in that sweet spot where positioning is extreme but not yet stretched to breaking points.
Trading small and wide isn’t just risk management – it’s profit optimization. When you’re early to major moves, position sizing becomes crucial because the market will test your conviction multiple times before rewarding your patience. Those smooth patches I mentioned? They come after periods of choppy, frustrating price action that shakes out weak hands. The difference between profitable traders and account destroyers is simple: profitable traders survive the chop to capture the trends. Account destroyers get stopped out right before the big moves begin. Stay patient, stay positioned, and remember – being fashionably late in forex means missing the party entirely.
Kong, I love that you have over 300 followers on Twitter, and you follow NOBODY.
Very kind of you to make mention Andrew.
It’s a stat that “I myself” am particularily fond of as…………….I FOLLOW NO ONE!
He he he……well….in all – I’m not to much for the idle chit chat/ bubble gum convos at Twitter. Perhaps I should “relax” about it.
K & A,
Outstanding chat! You hit on the very few points that separate the $kinners from the $kinned.
>>A: you follow NOBODY.
>>K: I FOLLOW NO ONE!
Exactly. That refers back to the prior post that I will respond to here. I can not resist an opp to state the obvious and later comments on earlier posts are almost instantly relegated to the trash bin of history. I know, all of my posts belong in the trash bin.
>>Andrew, responding re the many that want signals:
>>Whenever someone asks about what to do in a trade or whether it’s too late to get in, it’s clear that person has no plan (or >>worse refuses to follow it)
Again, exactly right. Every published description of a “real” trader includes the characteristic that they call their own shots and do not follow any other trader or guru. It was a red flag that so many came forward when specific trades were posted.
Kong can’t save you. You must save yourself.
>>Andrew, responding re signal services:
>> I create my profits and my losses inside my head
As above. I agree with your unstated ideas about why few profit from such services (been there, done that).
I believe it would be easier for an amateur to follow Kong IF they had a large enough account or went with a “broker” that offered $0.10 pips and 10,000 : 1 leverage. If one can avoid the temptation to commit high leverage suicide, one could learn a lot. As you said, the ultimate goal should be to call one’s own trades regardless of what Kong or anyone else does.
>>Kong, re trades vs ideas:
>>“psychology of it all” more than anything,
Yep. Trading, if one is doing it right, should be boring. The homework is fun and the $ is fun, but the actual trade, not so much. The esoteric, existential aspects are interesting. They are a perfect lab for the human condition.
Bye for now.
hi Kong!
Yes, the Nikkei is the spanner in the works here, since the USDJPY cannot make downside progress until such time as the Nikkei turns down – despite a convincingly weakening USD. This makes for excellent upside dynamics for EURJPY since whatever the USD does, EURJPY only get’s levered upwards! (I must make a note of this for later use). But the caveat is: the Nikkei cannot go much higher based on indicator divergence and macro events, so I remain bearish the UJ !
Looks like we see this EXACTLY the same man.
Nikkei currently “respecting” my downsloping trendling (4h chart) and “risk on the horizon” so….
Onward my friend!
EUR/JPY could run into trouble “should” full blown risk aversion take hold.
When risk unwinds and JPY gets bought – whoah! – It gets bought hard.