Intraday Trade Alert! – Short Term Views

For fun I figured I’d throw out exactly what I’m looking at on a “per pair” basis.

I don’t generally make “intraday calls” but as it stands, let’s give it a go and you guys can beat me up over it later.

USD/CAD – short it….right here right now.

USD/CHF – short it …right here right now.

USD/JPY – short it…right here right now.

AUD/JPY – short it …right here right now.

I’ve got a pile more, but “assume” you get my drift.

JPY a “buy” here, and USD a “sell”.

Take it for what it’s worth ladies….and don’t go bet the farm.

Have a look at both EUR/USD as well GBP/USD but with “super small positions” – (I’ll debate a trade on these dogs later as well).

You get rich – thank me…….you lose your house? Talk to you later.

34 Responses

  1. Robert September 3, 2013 / 11:15 am

    how abt gbp/jpy? looks good to short too?

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 11:22 am

      Careful with that thing!

      It’s literally a bomb in your hand with a mind of it’s own. GBP/JPY will blow your face off without a moments notice so……..

      Inch in….grab a contract……wait til this evening…..grab another etc…..

      Intraday moves can be well over 100 pips – and have no bearing on direction so…..CAREFUL!

      • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 11:23 am

        I’m almost ALWAYS EARLY PEOPLE So………..


  2. elena September 3, 2013 / 11:28 am

    you have lovely teeth today, i am poised to do what you say :)))

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 11:35 am

      Be sure to protect yourself Elena….as well consider that I will often “stagger my orders” and trade in small sizes over time.

      24 hours is a blip forex wise….so we don’t expect to pick a point in time, and watch it “rain money”.

      Thank you for the compliments – I think I need a cleaning though!

  3. Robert September 3, 2013 / 11:32 am

    haha.. no follow through on the selling… hopefully more to come soon

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 11:38 am

      I know you’re joking…..please tell me you’re joking.

      I’ll get worked up about it sometime late tomorrow afternoon at best

      There is no such thing as “perfect entry” – in fact…not even close.

      If you don’t consider 50 – 100 pip moves in your trading as “normal” – you need a larger account to even get into the game.

  4. MrT September 3, 2013 / 12:06 pm

    Robert, I am trading dynamic levels (only on GBP/JPY), watch carefully 154.26, it can bounce from there temporary (I consider it daily dynamic pivot), otherwise you are a bit late for today’s entry, good entry was 155.4 and 154.9. I don’t want to share my chart and how I got to those levels, but they are on the chart…

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 1:49 pm

      Great stuff Mr T.

      Don’t worry about hitting it “on the mark” Robert, as this pair can easily skid a couple hundred pips in a heartbeat.

      Lots of room to the downside is / when she goes.

      Go go go ….

  5. robert September 3, 2013 / 2:34 pm

    The yen pairs are certainly a bitch to trade with massive stimulus from japan…

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 2:40 pm

      They are “big movers” regardless of the BOJ’s efforts, and here especially with the concerns over Syria.

      You need to be very careful with them in general, and really watch your position size / and ability to handle volatility.

      Trade em small – and wide – that’s the best suggestion I can give.

  6. robert September 3, 2013 / 2:45 pm

    Yeah.. lots of dip buyers for yen pairs… i thought usdjpy was a riskoff pair and with today selling and news it should fall, but apparently it is not

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 2:56 pm

      Pull a chart of the Nikkei on a 4 hour chart and have a look ( from a technical perspective ) at the downward sloping trendline from 16,020

      We’ve juuuust bumped into it ( as I draw it ) here today so…..things can hang around at this level for even a day or two ( as you’ll see congestion areas at “other levels” hit previously ).

      It sounds to me like you’re looking for things to happen “just like that”?

      Just that “things like that”……… rarely happen.

  7. robert September 3, 2013 / 3:00 pm

    Nah. I am not expecting it to go down immediately, but trying to understand how thd yen pairs move.

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 3:06 pm

      I love em, and trade em often.

      Best bet….pull em all up on you screens etc, and start staring at them. In particular watch / see their ATR ( average true range ) compared to others.

      Big moves……

  8. Nfxtrader September 3, 2013 / 3:40 pm

    Kong! Nice calls past few weeks. You are rocking. Euro weaker than Aussie recently so eur/jpy better short than aud/jpy?

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 3:54 pm


      The Yen pairs all go “when they go” but both you and Andrew raise a good point, as to AUD lookin stronger.

      Let’s watch’em here during Asia session and see how things look.

      I’ve seen Nikkei respect the downtrend line pretty well “technically” so….would we be lookin at ” Nikkei” break out here? Fundies don’t really sugggest that, with the “looming threat of war” so…..

      Just another trade.

  9. Andrew September 3, 2013 / 3:42 pm

    Kong, I’m with you on USD/CAD and GBP/USD, at least in the very short term, but not on the USD/JPY or or other long yen trades (at least not yet, though maybe soon). Judging by my charts, Japan is winning the race to zero. Aussie sure looks like is wants higher (which doesn’t seem too unreasonable after the brutal beating it’s taken and the piled up shorts who’ll need to book profits at some point). Best, Andrew

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 3:47 pm

      Long Yen’s a toughy for sure – I’m nimble like a gorilla here.

      Today’s action (and most every day it seems these days) yet again – waffle, waffle, chop , chop.

      Nikkei would need to blow thru current level around 14,000 for me to get all worked up so…..we’ll see what tonight looks like.

      Thanx for sharing your thoughts, and checkin in with your trades.

  10. Andrew September 3, 2013 / 4:05 pm

    On war, I’m going to stop speculating after what happened over the weekend, which I must admit surprised me. As far as I can tell, the entire U.S. govt. has gone “full retard.”

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 4:14 pm

      Im with you there, mind you – U.S has “been” full retard for some time now anyway….

      He he he…..the gong show continues – you’ve got it.

      I was confident nothing was going to happen – but didn’t expect the Congress bit.

      What a mess……..and “once again” markets are caught wondering. Brilliant.

    • Forex Kong September 3, 2013 / 4:17 pm

      The clip……that scene – seriously…one of my all time favs.

      RDJ was hilarious in that movie.

  11. schmederling September 3, 2013 / 9:21 pm

    Hey Doc…..

    Target for the DXY in the 79.50 range-ish? or do you think that is too deep? IF we get a launch then this will reverse on a dime…

  12. robert September 3, 2013 / 11:57 pm

    Bah.. Nikkei is relentless man…. the power of BOJ?

    • Forex Kong September 4, 2013 / 9:56 am

      It appears that way! – although I’ve still got my eye on that trendling – still acting as solid resistance. 14,000 area and holding!

  13. robert September 4, 2013 / 4:45 am

    gbp/jpy… should have listen to you kong… this just keep going up regardless of anything….

    • Forex Kong September 4, 2013 / 10:00 am

      Well Robert – it really does depend on your account / position size, ability to handle volatility, and knowledge of a specific pair.

      I treat GBP/JPY with the utmost repsect – as it’s been a ball ripper in the past.

      Now…..if you’d been trading “small small small” you could easily be in a position now to either “add” to your position ( if you feel it’s still just a “timing” thing and not a macro fundamental change ) or cut your losses and just move on.

  14. devilyell September 4, 2013 / 9:44 am

    Hi Everyone,

    1. I’m curious because I noticed that talking about specific trades and price levels brings a lot more people & comments than other topics. I wonder why?

    2. Is the Kongdicator still over the horizon or is it getting closer to us?

    3. Kong, is there some way you “quantify” fundies? That is beyond me. It also seems that yesterday’s bullish news is often replaced by today’s bearish news. Sometimes in the same day and same batch of reports. Mostly, you use TA when talking about specifics and fundies when macro. Simple as that?

    Good luck all.

    • Forex Kong September 4, 2013 / 10:22 am

      1. I put out a “trade alert” yesterday, and now see the results yes. A good “half the readers who’ve contributed to the readers poll, are flat out just looking for actionable real time trade ideas. This is a complete mine field from my perspective, as all traders approach trade entry/management different but….I figured I’d fly one. No death threats yet!

      2. Kongdiction is on it’s way, as is the full members service / backend type area – YES….I’m still werkin through some of the web elements / payment gateway etc…

      3.I’ve come to understand this part of trading ( or at least MY trading ) as the area where a bit of “creativity/knack/flair/artistry/” may come into play. I don’t know “how” to explain “how” I see / line alot of this stuff up – short of doing my best to look at things as “broad” as I can – and work down from the top. This coupled with the short term tech ( taking reasonable care of entries etc ) has proven a successful combination.

      I can get back to the fly fishing metaphor a million times over. You can put a rod in a guys hand, and take him down to your favorite spot….

      He can bang away at it all day……and not catch a bloody thing.

      • devilyell September 4, 2013 / 10:37 am

        Thanks Kong. Appreciate your insights and fast reply.

      • Andrew September 4, 2013 / 10:47 am

        In the past, I subscribed to a service by a trader that provided real-time entries and exits. I’m totally confident that he pulls tons of cash out of the market on a consistent basis and has supported himself for many years in the markets with his methods. Yet, I found that I could not make any consistent money trying to follow him. I have theories about why that was the case, but the “why” really doesn’t matter to me. It’s like trying to find the holy grail, which simply doesn’t exist. I’ve given up that dead-end long ago. I’ve realized that I create my profits and my losses inside my head and that no one can help me beyond the person who helped me understand that fact and how the game is played (which amazingly few understand). Maybe others are different and could blindly follow signals from someone, but I doubt if there’s few, if any, that can. Whenever someone asks about what to do in a trade or whether it’s too late to get in, it’s clear that person has no plan (or worse refuses to follow it) and is therefore doomed to continue paying the winning traders. Trading is like groundhog’s day, unfortunately. Just my opinion and I could be wrong 🙂

        • Forex Kong September 4, 2013 / 11:28 am

          Very well said Andrew…..and yes – it will almost always come down to the individual ( and his/her mistakes and decisions ).

          My interest lies in the “psychology of it all” more than anything, but I’m not sure of an effective way to “package that up” and make something of it. I’m seeing that there at least two separate readers here at the blog – the short termers, and those that want broader knowledge / understanding.

          I can talk psychology of trading all day long, as opposed to the “pains” of short term technical chit chat.

          We’ll see – I’ve considered breaking things down and “splitting it” – as to “possibly” help out both!

  15. Robert September 4, 2013 / 10:06 am

    USD is going down, equities going up, yen going down? wouldn’t pairs like aud/usd, gbp/usd, eur/usd going up pull their respective yen crosses up as well as equities?

    • Forex Kong September 4, 2013 / 10:44 am

      Volatility in one pair can’t be compared to “change in direction” of another – and certainly not “all tied up neatly with a bow – and happening at the exact same time”.

      Yesterday’s intraday call on further USD weakness has been realized across the board, but JPY continued to drop overnight. This may quickly change as suggested MANY TIMES prior – staggering your orders over time keeps you from “hitting an exact entry level” which is IMPOSSILBE in forex.

      This is an extremely difficult environment to trade – with attempt to apply standard “usual” correlations.

      I still see things as USD down as well US Equities down. Nikkei at resistance and JPY to trade opposite. Just not happening “On the turn of a dime”.

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