It’s wet here today. Really wet.
Like there’s a two foot deep lake out front of my place…with cars stalled in it “type” wet. Hurricane “Ingrid” blew thru early in the week, and a smaller tropical storm has now developed in her wake. As with the weather here in the Yucatan “so it goes” in financial markets as well. Having missed one of the largest one day moves in USD in the history of my career “sitting out” – I can honestly say ” I’ve had better days”.
So there it is. Rain on my parade.
Bernanke “toes the line” and doesn’t even blink with the smallest suggestion of tapering. Zip. Zero. Nada.
The U.S Dollar absolutely crushed with one of the largest one day moves lower I’ve ever seen ( all be it sitting here looking to smash my computer screens to bits). Epic dollar destruction. Continued printing. Ponzi scheme “on”.
You’d expect that anyone in there right mind would perceive this as “very , very , very bad news” as obviously, if the U.S cannot afford even the “tiniest of tapering” you’ve gotta know the trouble runs far deeper than most imagine. This is bad news. It’s bad, bad , bad news – but what’s a guy to do?
You’re supposed to go back to work , mind your own business, but stay tuned to that T.V for further updates on the destruction of your economy and currency.
If I was “modestly bearish” some time ago, I’m now OUTRIGHT growling now, as this has now passed “all levels of reason”.
Trade ideas to follow but as it stands….we’ll wait to see reaction to this over the next “day or two” and stay open to the idea of a solid dollar bounce.
Remember this? http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/jul/07/ebc-raise-interest-rates-debt-crisis
Fed couldn’t even fathom to TAPER (a.k.a slowing down the QE) let along raising rates. This is getting comical now.
I’m sure you caught my post on it:
https://forexkong.com/2013/08/26/there-will-be-no-taper-stop-listening/
Regardless…”knowing it” and “speculating / trading it” are certainly 2 different things. I can go on n on n on about my “fundamental views” etc…then when something like this comes along…..there I am – sitting on my hands. It’s a tough one to have missed that’s for sure….but the case just builds stronger for the “downside in risk” – if it EVER comes!
Adding some USD longs here, I still like the AUD short for an eventual gap close on Sunday. I’ll also add to GBP at 1.61 as I’ve never seen it blow passed a big round number (like it did 1.60) and not at least retest it soon after.
I like where you are at David “in theory”…but will wait until I see at least some “evidence” this move has petered out.
I too assume that USD will likley retrace a pile of this move, as well see it rather late in it’s usual cyclical patterns/moves so….
Looking USD long for a trade, as well the spikes in AUD and NZD is really the only thing I’ve got infront of me as well, short of waiting for global economic meltdown. Not today!
The present conditions are definitely such that intellect and reasonableness can interfere with making $$. What is the goal after all?
You bet…..you’ve really got to step back at times like this – re evaluate, and consider “there’s always another trade”.
I’ll admit it – I’m looking to go against the trend! As the fundamentals are so far outta wack, a guy like me just can’t bring himself to “duh….just go along with it”. I can’t do it – I won’t do it.
I’m always open to trading both sides ( as I’ve done countless times before ) but these “topping processes” have even the best of em questioning “should I just buy then?” “I guess it’s just gonna keep goin straight up !”. Not this gorilla.
I can look at the past 2 weeks and say I’m break even and holding piles of cash – a great place to be in. Do I want to make money? Do I “need” to make money? Big time. But…….I can’t get lulled into submission here either.
The appropriate market dynamic here…would be to sell this “pop” like no tomorrow – but with the Fed’s spigget wide open – Fundamental traders suck wind. It’s a powerful combination when the technicals AND the Fundies meet up, and maybe I’m just spoiled in having recognized it several times before.
I’d rather cross where the water level is below my knees…….you’ve just gotta spend a little more time crashing through the bush.
It’s a real tough day really….for Americans…and for all as…….The Fed “themselves” pulled a fast one in the markets today.
They as much as said they where going to “attempt” to start pulling in QE a bit…(which “should” make sense with markets at all time highs right?),and usually try to give markets “some idea” of what’s to come – then BOOM!
Obviously smashing bears to pieces, and in my view sending a clear message that “all is not well” but “ignore that…and let us just keep printing money”.
Back to work people….nothing to see here.
Sad.
Hi Kong. Exactly, what the Fed did is dishonest and manipulative. They think they control the markets because market participants defer authority to the Fed. But now the Fed has cried wolf and mugged everyone they had “forward guided”, sentiment will turn. Soon the Fed will deliver their next installment and the market will think twice and down the line the central banks will discover with shock who really (and all along) holds the power to move these markets.
You’d like to think so….we being “intelligent traders ” right?
I’m not one for being made a fool of, in any circles – and it’s tough to watch as today’s “Fed Move” was indeed a real disapointment.
It really goes to show just how far this has gone…..when literally “it’s come to this”.
They’ve essentially “created” this market and now look to take full advantage. Man………glad I live in Mexico.
I must admit, I initially questioned your opinion that the FED cannot stop QE. Unfortunately, it looks like you may be right.
I understand completely GTFO, and it’s really not a matter of “being right or wrong”.
This “is” the current situation. This “is” what we’ve got in front of us.
My opinions will always be exactly that………………..opinions.
Hi Kong,
May i know when is the next QE5?
Sorry I’m late getting back to you…..
He he he…..QE5 is essentially “already happening”, as no matter what they call it….no matter how it manifests in the media etc….
The U.S recovery in general, is a complete and total “sham”. Without the Fed, the U.S’s “current recession” would be a full on “depression”.
It’s QE forever – only that soon…very soon, not even THAT will be enough.
Long time no talk to you, kong! Hope you everything is going well 😉
I’m waiting a chance to short gbp/usd. Perhaps on later or tomorrow hehe…
It’s suuuuuure looking ripe for a short yes, so we watch USD for a “swing low” on $dxy ( as one example ) as soon as tomorrow yes.
Kong, obsolutely stay and watch out the price move. Hopefully can harvest a 500 pips if it’s possible. Also eur/usd- short soon 🙂
Considering the massive move yesterday – a long USD trade is setting up here quite nicely across the board as “nothin moves in one direction forever”. Nearly all currencies vs USD are in areas of either support or resistance to reflect relatively low “risk vs reward” entries soon.
This move by the Fed can only be viewed as a negative, and it will likely take markets a day er two to get squared away, then make the move.
Yes. will see how deep it goes. Real interesting ya!