I’ve had signals initiated to get short /ES ( SP500 futures) under 1685.00
With U.S data on tap here in the next 30 minutes, I would obviously wait until “after the dust settles” to consider any type of entries – with increased volatility surrounding Thursday mornings news releases.
Current positions:
- Entered short CAD/CHF on Sept 8 at 90.00
- Entered long EUR/AUD ( Insanity Trade ) on Sept 9 at 1.43
- Entered long EUR/NZD ( Insanity Trade 2 ) on Sept 19th at 1.6260
- Entered short CAD/JPY at 10:51 a.m Sept 25 at 95.81
Looking forward:
There is no question that I’ll be getting entries in the following pairs within the next 6 hours, so ideally at any price level “higher” than we see as of this moment.
- short AUD/JPY
- short AUD/USD
- short NZD/USD
- short NZD/JPY
In general , we see the trades to reflect a “risk off” scenario , with strength to be seen in both USD as well JPY, and weakness in commodity currencies.
Now keep in mind….when entries are given, the buy/sell orders are places “x” number of pips above or below that value in order to be picked up ON MOMENTUM.
Have I ever had an instance where the entire set of orders is missed/ not picked up – and the market has moved considerably in the other direction? Maybe a couple of times – but that’s a good thing, as we look to catch MOMENTUM in our direction of choice.
No MOMENTUM – NO TRADE = SMART TRADE.
More this afternoon, as trades in several other pairs ( including those with EUR as well GBP) look to materialize.
Cheers Kong, this is great and after following you for the past four months and beginning to understand your method of trading this information just reaffirms it.
I’m currently long Eur/aud, short nzd/USD, and short USD/JPY.
Excellent Warren.
I imagine for some the daily “writings” here appear a bit cryptic.
I appreciate you “hanging in there” and hope that this “little bit” of specific trade info helps others stick it out here as well!
It’s a very difficult time to be trading, and for newcomers the “not knowing” could get some in real trouble. Hopefully not.
Good for you Warren – and good luck man!
I found my Kong-secret-decoder-ring in a box of cereal. These trading times are obscene right now, 2013 you won’t make money! I’ve tightened up my stops on my three in the money positions and have placed momentum following orders on aud/JPY and aud/USD.
I’m off to go play some disc golf. And enjoy a crisp spring Chilean morning.
Que te vaya bien.
Excelente Warren!
Disfrute!
Warren USDJPY is a long in my opinion, I don’t know why people are shorting this pair, its still showing strength and hopefully I wont be wrong.
It’s a tricky pair for a reason – both currencies provide the same “global function” as safe havens!
One has to be very careful assessing the “fundamentals” in this pair for that reason alone. You may think “USD up = USD/JPY up” but misinterpret that USD up = safe haven play and JPY up MORE = safe haven play.
I rarely trade the pair as this in itself makes for a difficult trade. Trading one safe haven against another? not the best trade out there that’s for sure.
Kong if you don’t mind me asking! what is win/loss ratio for your system? and average pip gains or loss per trade? Thanks
Umar…do me a favor…..pull up a 1H chart of USD/JPY with at least enough info on screen from Sept 11 this month, and lets run a simple little exercise.
What corner of the screen does price action start? Top left? or Bottom left?
What corner of the screen does price action end?
You may want to reconsider your evaluation of “strength” no?
I’ve been teaching my girlfriend / fiance how to trade in this fashion.
She knows very little about finance / fundamentals etc….and is doing great.
Ya I am staying away from USDJPY for a bit.
Thanks for the post Kong. I closed up my long risk positions just now.
Haven’t entered an es short yet but will sometime in the next 24 hrs I think. Holding some usd and yen longs. Good luck and make some damn money!
I would have hoped for a larger move here today in both USD as well JPY and all related pairs….but as it stands the ol Kongdicator still not “chiming away” on those pairs so…..I assume my latest “tweaks” are indeed providing further accuracy.
All good but yes…..lets get this thing moving!!!
Hourly move can be changed in an hour, so why don’t we see on a 4 hour chart or for that matter daily chart to get the real picture, seems to me pretty strong on a daily, consolidating before a move up. I am not saying you are wrong but I see usdjpy almost ready to break higher on a daily time frame.
In order for it to break higher on a “daily” – it would first need to “at least” break higher on what?
5 min….so far not
15 minute…..nope not now still down….
30 minute…..hmmmm…..still series of lower highs n lower lows….
1 hour….certainly in downtrend…..
You see what I’m saying? I’d get long when “at least all of these” suggest uptrend, otherwise….you’re just fighting it. If you’ve got the account balance and knowledge / ability to handle risk and trade daily charts sure….but stops of several hundred pips are needed.
by the way thats what I am looking at right now tradingview.com/x/t56wZ1SY/
Daily symentrical triangle with upward bias….could resolve either way – but yes of course I see what you’re seeing.
Trouble is…….here it is with nearly 2 full weeks in “near term” downtrend and essentially flat for months.
This is why “choosing” a currency pair based in fundamentals tends to give better results, as I’ve left the pair alone for like…..ever.
Long term I’m bullish as hell USD/JPY, but will be looking for lower prices to buy.
Kong you are the captain, I am here to follow and hopefully learn something from you. Just one thing to ask if you could tell your win/loss ratio roughly. Why I am asking! its actually for my risk management reasons. Thanks again for your time and effort and hopefully your kongometer will make me a lot of money.
It a fluid thing Umar, with many wins and few losses.
I don’t keep track of trades in the sense of “wins/losses” but as a collective whole, when a trade plan is realized.
Let me explain. I may work a trade idea / concept for many weeks to then find my account up 4% / 6 % whatever…
Then in taking profits “across the board” there is always a straggler, or a trade that went south on me. I just blow out the entire lot ( often with trades in as many as 12 – 5 pairs ) regardless of which ones hit and which ones didn’t. Bank the “collective” profits – and get on with the next move.
I am kind of feeling a grindy annoying move up in risk from here. Not necessarily a new high but I might not pull the trigger on anything new that is risk averse til Monday or Tuesday. Seems there are still buyers around the 1685 point on the ES Dec contract. I can see shorts getting a bit frustrated and taking money off the table because it is Friday. Perhaps the sweet set up will be Monday or something. Boring! Tired of beer money. I want bank.
What’s your plan this weekend down south, Kong? Probably better than here….winter is coming…
Yes…..the short signal on /ES averted at 1685.00 and no other signals during this “oh so boring” day in the markets.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see “more of the same” – sideways / pain in the ass, with a tiny “upside bias” as well.
Nothing tradable, so here we are again. STILL! Flat as a pancake.
Absolutely no plans this weekend, short of getting outside/swim/snorkel/same ol same thing here.
Winter up in Canada yes – can’t say I’ll be seeing you anytime soon!
Still think we will have the DXY roll-over here…. while we move slightly higher tonight & maybe into tomorrow I would suspect come next week we could head much lower…. testing the 79-79.50 range….. if the weekly fire has any BANG to it then even a nice break lower…. until I see things change I would continue to hold this view…
This junction for USD is 100% totally up for grabs Schmed – you bet.
I’ve enjoyed a couple decent trades long – after cashing out and missing that big candle down on Fed speak so…can’t really complain.
My short term indicators remain “flat / on hold” as today’s “expected signals” where silent ( no kidding with the day completely flat ).
I can’t imagine making any big bets “either way” today/tomorrow but will add – whatever “further movement downward in USD” isn’t worth trading here either in my eyes. Maybe a “dump/dip” but…I don’t see an extended move, with so many things suggesting otherwise.
I’m looking hard at AUD here as – It’s about worked off this “rebound”.
With this comes consideration of “risk” in general. Seasonal issues, debt talks, overbought equities etc…..
Many , many things just around the corner to support USD inflows.
Hey Kong, I am showing possible strength in JPY against USD here….. lot’s if MM set-ups with the 4hr,8hr & daily being tracked… along with the weekly….. shorter TF have already fired off NEG relative to the USD/JPY pair….. should be an interesting Friday!
It’s all moving as suggested only – Iiiinnnn slooooooooow mooootioonnnn!!
JPY showing strength across the board right now.
I’ve taken a couple more trades.
AUD is the weak player here.
Yeah – agree 100% I only have the 2hr with some action set-up & looking to move Neg here & the daily & weekly just working into a set-up the rest of the TF look boring for AUD!!
I’m in AUD/USD , EUR/AUD as well GBP/AUD and AUD/JPY.
I guess that about sums it up – literally across the board.
I think alot of people get “blurred” watching U.S equities…….as here we have a pretty standard example of risk hittin the exits.
Considerable JPY strength across the board….and considerable AUD weakness across the board.
The hour to hour is pretty meaningless for me here, as I’m positioning / working on the next “major move”.
Sorry….. Kong… meaning boring in the USD/AUD pair only…. LOL sorry man…. just tired…. time for some rest…
Me too wow……been a long couple of days.
Im out – as “this will all be here in the morning.”
nighty night.