A really nice spike in the U.S dollar today ( considering I’ve been long for days now ) with several trades paying off well. As well (specifically) foreseen weakness in GBP coming to fruition here overnight. I invite anyone who isn’t already following on twitter or “the comments section” here at the blog to join/follow as there are lots of great info from other traders here as well.
Im in! I’m “offically” LONG USD as of this moment….and will take my lumps / if / when they come. Small orders across the board – ANY PAIR!
— Forex Kong (@ForexKong) October 1, 2013
For those of you that “bother” looking at longer term charts in developing your trade plans. Weekly GBP/USD – talk about short! pin bar etc.
— Forex Kong (@ForexKong) October 3, 2013
It’s been interesting to see this move higher in USD in line with “risk on” activity in markets today but then again not so unusual. We’ve seen equities and USD running in tandem several times over the past few months as hot money from Japan is converted in / and out of US in order to buy and sell stocks.
THERE HAS STILL BEEN NO REAL MOVE TOWARDS SAFETY.
Glad it’s the weekend here as I’ll be diving / snorkeling. Have a great weekend everyone!
USD Strength Continues – Market Dynamics and Trading Opportunities
The Japanese Yen Carry Trade Factor
The hot money flows I mentioned from Japan deserve more attention here. What we’re seeing isn’t just random capital movement – it’s a structured unwinding and rewinding of carry trades that’s been driving this USD strength alongside equity rallies. The Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy has created a massive pool of cheap yen that gets converted into higher-yielding assets, primarily US stocks and bonds. When risk appetite increases, we see simultaneous buying of equities and USD, which explains why these two asset classes have been moving together rather than in their traditional inverse relationship.
This dynamic is particularly important for USD/JPY traders. The pair has been grinding higher not just on US dollar strength, but on fundamental yield differentials and capital flow patterns. Any trader positioning for continued USD strength needs to understand that a significant portion of this move is structurally driven by Japanese monetary policy, not just US economic data. This makes the move more sustainable than typical short-term dollar rallies.
GBP Weakness – Technical and Fundamental Convergence
That weekly pin bar on GBP/USD I tweeted about tells a story that goes beyond just technical analysis. The UK economy is showing real structural weaknesses that the market is finally starting to price in properly. We’re seeing a convergence of technical breakdown with fundamental deterioration – always the strongest setup for sustained moves.
The weekly chart shows clear rejection at key resistance levels, but more importantly, it’s happening at a time when UK economic data is disappointing and the Bank of England is trapped between inflation concerns and growth fears. This isn’t just a technical short – it’s a fundamental shift in how the market views the pound’s prospects. EUR/GBP is also showing interesting dynamics here, with the euro potentially outperforming sterling on a relative basis even while both currencies remain under pressure against the dollar.
Risk-On USD – A New Market Regime
The traditional safe-haven narrative for the US dollar is evolving into something more complex and ultimately more bullish for the greenback. We’re entering a period where USD strength coincides with risk appetite rather than opposing it. This shift represents a fundamental change in global capital flows and has massive implications for how we approach currency trading.
This new regime means that positive equity moves, improving economic data, and general risk-taking behavior all support further USD strength. It’s a powerful combination that can sustain dollar rallies far longer than traditional safe-haven buying. The key pairs to watch are USD/JPY for momentum continuation, EUR/USD for structural breakdown, and GBP/USD for fundamental weakness convergence.
Commodity currencies like AUD/USD and NZD/USD are caught in a particularly difficult position here. They can’t benefit from general risk-on sentiment because the USD is capturing those flows, and they remain vulnerable to any risk-off moves that might develop. This creates a sustained headwind for commodity dollars that could persist for months.
Positioning and Risk Management
My approach of small orders across any USD pair reflects the broad-based nature of this dollar strength. Rather than trying to pick the single best USD pair, I’m capturing the general theme while managing risk through position sizing and diversification. This strategy works particularly well when you have high conviction on the direction but want to let the market show you which specific pairs offer the best risk-reward.
The key to managing these positions is understanding that we’re still in the early stages of what could be a significant USD bull cycle. This means being prepared for periodic pullbacks and consolidation phases while maintaining the bigger picture view. Stop losses should be based on weekly chart levels rather than daily noise, and position sizes should reflect the potentially extended timeframe of this move.
For traders looking to participate, focus on pairs where USD strength combines with specific weakness in the counter currency. GBP/USD remains my top pick for this reason, but EUR/USD is also showing signs of breaking down from key technical levels. The important thing is maintaining discipline with position sizing and not getting overleveraged, even when the setup looks compelling.
Nice Trades The dollar didnt made it tough to hold long this week.
Im in! I’m “offically” LONG USD as of this moment….and will take my lumps / if / when they come. Small orders across the board – ANY PAIR!
Can you please share what pair and what entry? and what is your target for these pairs?
Thanks
Dr. WW
Well Ze – If I was a “trade service” – the average reader likely couldn’t afford me right!
Unfortunately ( and for the time being ) I’m not getting into every single “tick” of my specific trades, as I fully understand what kind of a “rat’s nest” this can create. I started the blog from a creative perspective, hoping to help others “peel the onion” on forex, and markets / finance in general NOT to haggle with people over “every single pip”.
For the most part my tweets and “cryptic/hidden” comments are pretty straight forward for most anyone with a “basic working knowledge” of forex and the markets. As well…the idea is for readers to “improve” their knowledge and skill”.
I will be offering a paid service shortly, with the full expectation that – you’ll get your money’s worth!
For now Ze…..get in here / and slug it out with the rest of us!
What a great answer. I am not your average trader nor your average woman.
I am trading out of HK, living in HK where you have some of the most sophisticated borrowers and investors in the world. Time is money and money is all is here.
However, after loosing money to the legalized robbers such as HSBC and UBS they so called wealth mgmt which they gamble with your money like a Macau Casino, I am not taking care of my money. I am very much interested in the AUD.USD and the EUR.AUD as they are trading nicely with the HKD. However, I do need some mentoring as this AUD can chop fingers from time to time.
I am with you shorting the AUD. This is what I understand you are doing.
I am not so much a chart lady ‘I called my method PHD -which stands for “PUSH HERE DUMMY” for a Harvard PHD it seems to work until it slap me in face.
I find it fun to follow you. I will be very happy to learn from you. After 18 years in HK I think like Chinese, sometime act like them but do not have slanted eyes.
I love the resort you leave in.
me you can imagine at the very top water front just on top of the HK Marina Club.
WW
Ze.
One thing I place considerable value on – is knowing / having friends with “boots on the ground”. Your 18 years living in HK has me very jealous, as it’s one of those places I’ve always wanted to visit but “juuuust haven’t gotten around to yet”.
I’m sure we can all learn alot from you here, and I encourage you to not only “follow along” but to contribute / write / comment as to your experience there, and with respect to your trading. It’s great having you on board!
Now – yes I am currently building a positions with a “long USD” angle ( including a short AUD/USD ) but fully understand that things are “currently hanging in the balalnce” with the U.S Gov / Debt ceiling etc….
AUD is crawling….as are many currencies so……I am adding smaller orders “over time” and just letting this move along slowly. My only concern is that “risk” will likely take a small bounce higher ( including AUD ) when U.S gets it’s act together so…..we just go “easy” here a little while longer.
PHD – I love it!
Thanks Kong. Enjoy the weekend. Another hard fought but profitable week. Always appreciate the insight. I cashed out of everything today just because…well…I felt like it. Starting next week in cash, and in general, a USD long mindset and perhaps a reload of yen longs…..possibly another ES short. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised though to see a scratchy climb for a couple days at the beginning of the week.
Enjoy the sun man. I am looking forward to going to work in the dark and coming home from work in the dark..in the coming months. Yay Canada…..enter slit wrists and sad face….haha
Dr, Kong this is a crazy market. ME once reported that isaw the riskoff but couldn’t see them taking their money into usa. A look closer showed they were actually moving it to europe last week, so ijoined by eurcad and took +130 pips again ijoined buy nzdjpy, this one zigzaged but ijumped out with +80 pips. Those monies gone into japan last week seem to be coming to america right now especially canadian dollar. we will see if politics in america will allow that happen. you riskoff Iriskon and we both come out profitable. This IS A CRAZY market .
Enjoy you weekend.
Henry!
The market is insane!! Absolutely nuts! Wacko!
So it’s important to “scale back” during these times and reduce position sizes, then things don’t appear “quite as crazy”.
Yes – hot money out of Japan is the major source of funding here these days, so ebb and flow in JPY looks to be of greater significance than USD really.
U.S won’t default – but that won’t means “stocks/risk to the moon” – or at least I don’t think so.
Be safe man!
Will be going on the Dollar, just feel it’s a bit early. Half a whiff and I’ll be in tho.
You bet…..I’m always early.
Nice work Andy – I’m sure you’ll do well on this one.