Is Twitter The Top? – I.P.O or P.O.S?

You know…….If I was currently the CEO of one of the largest social media sites on the planet, I’d likely want to take my company public too. I mean why not right? You and your original investor base, board of directors, underwriters/bankers , family and friends, all made “multi millionaires” – practically overnight.

It’s a fantastic achievement, and an incredible opportunity for those so fortunate as to take advantage. During the internet craze of 2000 I too was encouraged to take my company public – but just couldn’t get through the paperwork / logistics etc…..

So here we are on the cusp of yet another “awesome internet offering” at a time / place where I for one am just a “tiny bit skeptical”.

Twitter has yet to turn a profit.

Of course I understand the model / internet / eyeballs / projections etc……but to be frank, and as an investor – the company evaluation looking like 23 – 25 dollars per share. No profits.

Could these guys be “even smarter” than you think?

Could Twitter’s I.P.O mark the top?

Food for thought people………I’m not involved.

Open’s 25 rips to 40…….then tanks to 12.50?

Sounds about right to me.

 

 

The Twitter IPO Signal and What It Means for Currency Markets

Tech Bubbles Create Dollar Demand — Until They Don’t

Here’s what most retail traders miss about these tech IPO frenzies: they’re massive USD demand engines, right up until the moment they become USD liquidation events. Think about it. When Twitter goes public at $25 and rips to $40, where’s that money coming from? International funds are converting EUR, GBP, JPY — everything — into dollars to chase the next big thing. This creates artificial strength in the dollar that has absolutely nothing to do with economic fundamentals.

I’ve watched this movie before. During the dot-com boom, we saw the DXY push higher not because the U.S. economy was fundamentally stronger, but because global capital was flooding into Nasdaq darlings that couldn’t even spell “profit.” The EUR/USD got crushed, GBP/USD took a beating, and everyone thought America had discovered the secret sauce. Then reality hit. When these overvalued tech stocks started their inevitable descent, all that foreign capital that flowed in? It flows right back out, and fast.

The Smart Money Moves Before the Obvious Signal

Professional currency traders don’t wait for Twitter to tank from $40 to $12.50. They’re positioning weeks, sometimes months ahead of the obvious reversal. Right now, while everyone’s getting excited about social media IPOs and “eyeball valuations,” the smart money is quietly building positions against the dollar. Why? Because they understand that unsustainable capital flows create unsustainable currency moves.

Watch the EUR/USD closely over the next few months. If I’m right about Twitter marking a tech top, we should see euro strength as European money stops chasing Silicon Valley fantasies and starts coming home. Same with GBP/USD — British pension funds and institutions have been major players in these tech IPOs, and when the music stops, sterling benefits. The yen is particularly interesting here because Japanese investors have been some of the most aggressive buyers of U.S. tech stocks. A reversal in that flow could send USD/JPY tumbling faster than most traders expect.

Central Bank Policy Meets Market Reality

Here’s where it gets really interesting for forex traders. The Federal Reserve has been keeping rates low to support the recovery, but they’re also inadvertently fueling these asset bubbles. When Twitter and similar companies start showing their true colors — remember, no profits — it’s going to force the Fed’s hand in ways they haven’t anticipated. They can’t raise rates to cool tech speculation without crushing the broader economy, but they can’t keep enabling this nonsense forever either.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are dealing with their own issues, but they’re not sitting on a tech bubble that’s about to pop. This creates a fascinating dynamic where U.S. monetary policy becomes constrained by Silicon Valley’s excesses, while other central banks maintain more flexibility. For currency traders, this means watching for policy divergence that favors non-dollar currencies as the tech bubble deflates.

Trading the Inevitable Correction

So how do you position for this? First, understand that timing matters more than being right about direction. I could be correct about Twitter marking the top, but if that correction takes eighteen months to play out, your short dollar positions could bleed for a long time. The key is watching for confirmation signals: tech stocks rolling over, foreign capital flows reversing, and currency correlations breaking down.

When it happens, it’ll happen fast. The same momentum that drives USD strength during bubble phases works in reverse during the bust. EUR/USD could easily rip 500-800 pips in a matter of weeks once the trend shifts. GBP/USD might see even bigger moves given how leveraged British institutions are to U.S. tech exposure. And don’t sleep on commodity currencies like AUD/USD and CAD/USD — they tend to benefit when dollar strength driven by financial speculation reverses.

Bottom line: Twitter’s IPO isn’t just about one company going public. It’s potentially the signal that we’ve reached peak speculation in an environment where currency flows have been distorted by fantasy valuations. Smart traders are already preparing for what comes next.