So the G-8 has now become the G-7 with Russia getting the cold shoulder, and the proposed G-8 meeting for June – cancelled.
Leaders of the so-called Group of Eight announced on Monday they would cancel their planned June meeting in Sochi, Russia, and suspend their participation in the international group, following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and threats toward eastern Ukraine.
Blah,blah,blah…..here’s what this is “really” all about. ( I’m sure you already know this ).
Check out the location of those pipelines, and the amount of gas exported from Russia to a number of European countries, as well take note of the “cultural boundaries” outlined in the smaller graphic in the bottom left corner. Hmmmmm…….
Ukraine_Gas_Pipeline_Forex_Kong
There appears to be a whole lot of land/people there in the states of Eastern Ukraine that could just as easily “swing” Russian no?
Market wise what can be said? Another day grinding away…..short of GBP finding support and AUD looking to top out.
Trades continue to develop, as paint continues to dry.
Hello again Kong,
Any thoughts on AUDCAD?
I’ve been stalking this one for quiet some time now and just shorted it on account of it running into a confluence of major resistance (channel, trendline, and Fibonacci-related). I’m thinking maybe a 10% drop in this pair is probable. Positioning fits a fall with speculators betting heavily against the CAD while abandoning AUD shorts. Plus, the AUD/USD looks to be topping at the daily 200sma and major falling trendline, while the USDCAD looks to be topping, at least, in the short-term from a multi-year rising channel. Yes, I realize the USDCAD will benefit from risk-off but I’m willing to bet that it will fall further during market rallies and rise slower during market declines
I know you’re bearish the Aussie but I’m curious as to your thoughts on playing aussie weakness through AUDCAD as opposed to a GBP/AUD long and/or AUD/JPY & AUD/USD short. I’m already long the yen through a USDJPY short.
Thanks,
It’s an interesting pairing…and I like where your head is at.
Without getting into much on a fundamental basis – your technical outline looks good to me short here “under 1.02 area” as we should let the turn present itself first, and not worry about missing a couple pips.
Entry short “around here” pending a couple more days “time wise” looks good to me yes.
Interesting post thanks Kong. Just about time to get yen longs in the game. Just about pulled the trigger last Friday. Glad I didn’t. Will likely go short AUDJPY and CADJPY. Keep and add to long USDCAD and add short AUDUSD. Considering short EUR trades as well…..considering haha
I think the Aussie just might go all 12 rounds here – Daily positive fire playing out….
Cheers Schmed,
it looks like RBA doesn’t control the Aussie anymore left it in the hands of the fundamentals ,, and it keeps on going higher broke through 200 SMA ,,,
This will be my last “add” and final / completion of short AUD here Farhan.
It’s practically the only currency that moved a single centimeter last night…very odd.
Ya I think it’s a case of AUD being pushed into technical zone of max pain. I’m taking positions short audusd and audjpy today. Sweet setups
but it broke through the 200 SMA on dialy dont you think it will go higher from here as it cleared through it ,, ?
Personally “no”……as always – these silly lines / indicators – only do so much to guide us.
When I consider the current investment environment ( as ridiculous as it is ) and in turn see AUD “blasting higher” well…..
I’m very often early….but rarely RARELY ever late so…..we just keep on keepin on.
I don’t know Aussie forming a nice big W – Monthly MACD look good – been a good trade – daily fire still has MM…
Cheers Schmed,
Ya Schmed I noted that to myself last night. I personally would be more excited about that setup if other risk assets were currently in an oversold environment. And if fundamentals weren’t seemingly setting up for a correction. Just me two bits
I’ve closed my long position and added short. AUD/USD retailers are 90% short in this pair so think that’s why it pushed higher. When the flow has gone, think it will be waterfall.