Rising Interest Rates – Falling Gorillas

Ya….falling on the ground laughing my ass off.

Gimme a break.

If anyone actually believes that the fed will “raise interest rates” on its own accord – you’ll now need to turn off your computer, head into the bedroom, pack yourself a nice little “overnight bag”, grab your favorite stuffed animal ( a gorilla I can only hope ), call a friend to come pick you up….and head straight down to your local mental institution.

There’s a bed waiting for you there….and I bet you’ll see a number of your friends have already checked in.

This is NEVER going to happen! Let alone “earlier” than what markets have currently been sold.

You’d have to imagine something like a wounded American soldier, shot up, beat down and near death, miles from medical attention with little hope for survival, then taking out his revolver  – and shooting both feet.

That’s Janet Yellen raising interest rates.

Gimme a break.

I suppose you’re trading with “hopes of more stimulus from China” to eh?

Gimme a break.

The “hose job” continues, as the puppet just keeps on dancing.

The Fed will NEVER raise rates on its own accord, and “once again” the media / money transfer machines have got you tied up in knots wondering which way to turn.

Yes yes….things are getting better. Taper on track…..rates to rise sooner than expected….all is going according to plan. Good lord.

Maybe I’ve been on holidays too long as this sounds even “more” ridiculous daily.

 

I’m 6″2 – but getting shorter by the minute.

 

 

 

The Federal Reserve’s Impossible Position

Let me spell this out for anyone still clinging to fairy tales about monetary policy. The Fed is trapped in a corner so tight they can barely breathe, let alone make bold moves like raising rates. They’ve painted themselves into this mess with over a decade of cheap money, and now they’re staring at a debt mountain that makes Everest look like a speed bump.

Think about it logically. The U.S. government is sitting on over $30 trillion in debt. Every quarter-point rate hike translates to billions more in interest payments. You really think they’re going to voluntarily strangle themselves? This isn’t about economic theory anymore—it’s about basic survival math.

Currency Markets See Through The Charade

The smart money has already figured this out. Look at what’s happening with USD weakness across major pairs. The dollar’s strength was built on the illusion that America had room to maneuver. That illusion is cracking faster than ice in a microwave.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD—they’re all showing the same pattern. The market is pricing in what the talking heads refuse to acknowledge: the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric is nothing but theater. When push comes to shove, they’ll choose more accommodation every single time.

The Real Game Behind The Curtain

Here’s what’s actually happening while everyone’s distracted by rate hike fantasies. Central banks worldwide are coordinating the biggest wealth transfer in human history. They’ll keep printing, keep suppressing yields, and keep inflating away the debt burden. It’s not a bug in the system—it’s the entire point.

The puppet masters pulling the strings understand that higher rates would collapse the everything bubble they’ve spent years inflating. Real estate, stocks, bonds—the whole house of cards depends on cheap money flowing like a river. Turn off that tap, and watch the financial system implode faster than you can say “systemic risk.”

Trading The Reality, Not The Headlines

Smart traders position themselves based on what central banks will actually do, not what they say they’ll do. The Fed will continue finding excuses to delay, postpone, and ultimately reverse course on any meaningful tightening. Count on it.

Every time they hint at hawkishness, watch for the inevitable backtrack when markets throw their tantrum. It’s the same script, different act. They’ll cite “unexpected economic headwinds” or “evolving global conditions” or whatever buzzwords focus groups tell them sound responsible.

Meanwhile, real assets continue their march higher. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, commodities—anything that can’t be printed into oblivion. The debasement trade isn’t just alive; it’s the only game that matters. When you see the market rally picking up steam, that’s not optimism about the economy. That’s inflation expectations finally waking up.

The Endgame Is Already Written

This whole charade ends one of two ways: controlled demolition or uncontrolled collapse. Either the Fed orchestrates a managed decline of the dollar’s purchasing power, or market forces do it for them in spectacular fashion. Neither scenario involves them voluntarily raising rates into a recession.

The math is simple, even if the politics are messy. They’ll choose currency debasement over debt default every single time. They’ll choose asset bubbles over deflationary collapse. They’ll choose to kick the can down the road until there’s no more road left.

So while the financial media keeps spinning tales about the Fed’s next move, the real money is positioning for the only outcome that makes sense: more of the same, with extra helpings of monetary accommodation dressed up as “emergency measures” when the next crisis hits.

Stop listening to what they say. Start watching what they do. The pattern is clear for anyone willing to see it.

7 Responses

  1. JSkogs March 26, 2014 / 1:35 pm

    A guy or girl has to admit the timing of China stimulus and ECB stimulus rumors is pretty hilarious. Pretty transparent. I generally don’t like to get to excited about conspiracy but this one cracks me up

    • Forex Kong March 26, 2014 / 1:44 pm

      Its over the top hilarious, coupled with the recent rise in AUD and the “continued belief” that everything is going well / as planned.

      In fact…for me at least – the more I hear / read / see suggesting “all is well” the more likely I see this thing crashing.

      For the longest time I considered “well…..no……pullbacks / controlled market movement etc ” but….as this just gets more n more ridiculous I start to consider what other options do they have…”other than” a complete and total reset?

      We continue to “endure” the current conditions..but in a broad stroke I’m really not contemplating ever single twitch / wiggle as……I’ve alreay resigned myself to the building of short positions. Even if it takes another 6 months.

      Boring as shit to blog / write about but I can’t really bother with the day to day…..”these days”.

      • pecuniae March 26, 2014 / 2:31 pm

        Possible bearish shooting star in the AUDCAD pair if we get follow through tomorrow. Upper shadow provides a beautiful stop-loss point going forward. Took a little short term pain today but not giving up on this one just yet 🙂

        However, the likely breakdown in the GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD, alongside the breakout in the AUDUSD, doesn’t exactly give me a lot of confidence in this position. Here’s hoping for an amazing reversal (i.e. false breakout) in the aussie. I’ve seen stranger things happen in the world of forex, that’s for sure.

  2. JSkogs March 26, 2014 / 2:58 pm

    I think whenever you see weirdness at work you know a big move is coming. Canadian dollar showing a bunch of strength today with no news that I could find….in a strong risk off environment…..rate cut rumors etc. Looks to me like bashing to get it into the right position for a good move. Or maybe it was just too crowded. I’ve been long USDCAD since 1.0985 with a small position. It was hard to hold through todays crap but I think a rocket is in store if stocks correct. Started yen longs today. Was planning on taking a short position in AUDUSD today but still haven’t………..weeds….weeds….waiting in the damn boring weeds.

  3. Power Corrupts March 26, 2014 / 7:18 pm

    Kong! (US) Money losing companies IPO’d off the chart. Covenant lite loan issuance off the chart. Both categories up up and away in March. The Fed is sitting on a powder keg with a lit fuse. ‘Bot to git real interestin’

  4. JSkogs March 27, 2014 / 9:21 am

    Does it really take this long for people to realize its time to take profits? Haha this is insane….not to mention boring as hell

    • Forex Kong March 27, 2014 / 9:47 am

      It’s stretching and stretching…and reaching…on and on and on..

      Today’s move in the banking / financial sector “should” catch some eyeballs and contribute to a directional move but….

      That would only make sense if this was a normal market…not the Fed’s market.

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