Shit Will Hit The Fan In Ukraine

This is getting ridiculous, and much like a small boy poking a stick into a hornet’s nest – The United States is getting close and closer to “taking the short end of that”.

I’d suggested some time ago that “if you don’t know what’s really going on in The Ukraine” – you should really take a closer look.

Behind the unfortunate disappearance of flight 370, and the never-ending daily coverage ( I swear..my CNN watch has it that this “must be” the single most important story on the face of the planet! ) sit headlines of much greater “global significance”.

The situation in The Ukraine is heating up – and heating up fast as Obama’s complete and total desperation reaches new levels.

  • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-07/russia-accuses-us-mercenaries-inciting-civil-war-ukraine
  • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-08/crackdown-begins-ukraine-launches-anti-terrorist-operations-eastern-ukraine-arrests-

Keep in mind that for the most part…..these areas/people of The Ukraine “want” to become part of Russia, so running out in the streets looking to “arrest and detain” these protestors can’t sit well with Mr. Putin.

Obama is pushing his luck here…and I have every bit of confidence that – Russia will not sit idle much longer.

The Economic War Behind The Headlines

What we’re witnessing isn’t just political theater – it’s the opening salvo of a currency war that will reshape global markets for decades. While mainstream media feeds you sanitized sound bites, the real action is happening in the shadows where central banks are positioning their pieces for economic checkmate.

Putin isn’t playing defense here. He’s systematically dismantling the petrodollar system that’s kept America’s financial house of cards standing since the 1970s. Every sanction pushed by Washington only accelerates Russia’s pivot away from USD-denominated trade. China’s watching, taking notes, and quietly building alternative payment systems that bypass SWIFT entirely.

The Dollar’s Achilles Heel

Obama’s desperation stems from a simple reality – America’s economic dominance depends entirely on the world’s willingness to keep using dollars for international trade. That foundation is cracking, and Ukraine is just the visible symptom of a much deeper structural shift.

Russia and China have been preparing for this moment for years. They’ve been stockpiling gold, building bilateral trade agreements, and creating financial infrastructure that doesn’t require American approval. Every heavy-handed move from Washington pushes more nations toward these alternatives.

The irony is beautiful – American aggression is accelerating America’s own economic isolation. Markets are starting to price in a world where USD weakness becomes the dominant trend, not the exception.

Energy Economics Drive Everything

Here’s what the talking heads won’t tell you – this entire conflict revolves around energy markets and who gets to denominate those transactions. Russia supplies a massive chunk of Europe’s natural gas. That’s leverage you can’t sanction away or tweet into submission.

Putin holds cards that Obama simply doesn’t have. European industries need Russian energy to function. Period. All the moral posturing in the world won’t change basic economic reality. When push comes to shove, Germany isn’t going to freeze in the dark to make a point about Crimean sovereignty.

This creates a fundamental disconnect between American foreign policy objectives and European economic interests. That wedge will only widen as energy prices respond to geopolitical tensions.

Market Implications Are Massive

Smart money is already positioning for the inevitable. Commodities, precious metals, and non-dollar assets are where the real opportunities lie. This isn’t about picking sides in some geopolitical drama – it’s about recognizing structural shifts that create massive trading opportunities.

The ruble might look weak today, but currency markets are forward-looking beasts. A Russia that successfully pivots away from Western financial systems becomes economically antifragile. Meanwhile, every escalation threatens the very system that gives America its economic advantage.

Energy stocks, agricultural commodities, and precious metals are positioning themselves as the real winners here. These are tangible assets that hold value regardless of which currency system dominates global trade.

The Endgame Nobody Talks About

Obama’s playing a losing hand, and Putin knows it. America can’t actually follow through on its most aggressive threats without destroying the very financial system that gives it global influence. It’s like threatening to burn down your own house to spite your neighbor.

Russia, meanwhile, has been systematically reducing its vulnerability to Western financial pressure. They’ve diversified their reserves, built alternative trade relationships, and created economic buffers that can absorb short-term pain for long-term strategic advantage.

The real question isn’t whether America will back down – it’s how gracefully they can manage that retreat without completely undermining their credibility. Every day this drags on, more nations are taking notes about America’s actual capabilities versus its rhetoric.

This Ukrainian situation is just the opening act. The main event is a complete restructuring of global financial architecture, with America’s role looking a lot smaller when the dust settles. Trade accordingly.

6 Responses

  1. schmederling April 8, 2014 / 10:31 am

    Yeah I think Russia & China will surprise in the coming weeks – pulling the final trigger on something very large indeed…..

    As of the Aud/Usd trade here I have a posted 8hr positive fire & will let MM run to close out the remaining 75% of this trade…. we are forming a large W in the Daily & Weekly which is looking more & more like it will play out – pending further set-ups in the lower TF would keep me in this trade longer then the 8hr positive fire MM move here…

    Cheers Schmed,

  2. Alex Red April 8, 2014 / 12:15 pm

    Kong, the reason AUD NZD and other EM currencies are not coming down is because there is no risk-off in EM. Look at the ETF “EEM”. New highs today.

    • Forex Kong April 8, 2014 / 1:16 pm

      Cool Alex – nice observation. I’ve been watching EEM too.

      I feel it’s because the U.S Dollar is also getting killed, and EEM only survives on weak USD.

      For ones interest sake – watch EEM as U.S.D gains strength – suggesting that “funny money” invested abroad is quickly being repatriated “back into U.S.D”.

      I don’t imagine EEM will break the 43 area, as I’ve pointed out in many charts over the past year.

      Let’s watch it here closely and see if indeed higher USD will equate to EEM heading back down.

      Great input man….and cool handle! “Alex The Red”! Cool!

  3. Farhan Nasir (@FaniNasir) April 8, 2014 / 1:34 pm

    not gonna just sit and watch the killing of my account ,, gonna hedge and scalp to take small profits to keep my balance going so that i can survive this madness and then get bk on my feet once this thing comes down ,,
    damn why didnt i think of this before ,, -_-

  4. Graham April 8, 2014 / 5:59 pm

    I have been holding some PM’s lately but have weening myself off them and wonder Kong if you have held till now. Sorry might have missed a post of yours that would have indicated one way or another. But if you are wary of the AUD strength and aware of an impending decline I am wondering your thoughts on this provoking article and its coincidence with that possible decline. Perhaps also indicating a bounce for the dollar therein.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/33369/phase-iii-annihilation-in-the-precious-metals-marketsare-you-serious

    Yup still lurking and enjoying your site.

    • Forex Kong April 8, 2014 / 6:14 pm

      Quickly as I’m here at the computer ( I’ll read the article here in a bit )

      I’ve got plans to sell “everything” on the smallest bounce we see here in miners / gold in the coming days / week.

      AUD lost its correlation to gold some time ago so I don’t even consider them in the same breath.

      Gold will look for a “final wash” and yes it should correlate with a stronger USD.

Leave a Reply