If the U.S Dollar can put in a solid “swing low” and reversal down here ( which it appears to be doing ) then it looks like a number of solid trades setting up, with well-defined risk – having that stops can be put just above or / below any number of USD related pairs such as:
- short EUR/USD with “stops above” 1.39 ( that’s only 30 pips risk )
- short GBP/USD with “stops above” 1.6820 ( 100 pips )
- short AUD/USD with “stops above” 94.60 ( 60 pips )
- long USD/CAD with “stops below” 1.0856 ( 100 pips )
- long USD/CHF with “stops below” 86.90 ( 75 pips )
The Kongdicator hasn’t “officially rung the bell” on any of these, as the technology “looks ahead” a specific number of bars / time , taking into account near term volatility and a number of other factors BUT!….I’m out ahead of this with some “general trade ideas” should we see a solid swing in USD, as early as Monday / Tuesday.
Short of that, seeing the U.S Dollar fall below the recent lows in $DXY around 79.28 would have it in some real trouble, simply extending gains in all the currencies mentioned above.
Looking at “EEM” turning lower as of yesterday ( near the “same ol area” of resistance ) also suggest possible U.S Dollar strength ( if you can ever call it that ) to come.
From a fundamental perspective, as much as the Fed wants / loves a lower USD,we’ve come to an interesting junction where ( for the Fed unfortunately ) a showing of strength is really whats needed if these guys want to uphold “any sense of confidence” on the world stage.
Most of you likely don’t realize that Russia’s “announcement” that Gazprom ( largest supplier of Nat Gas to EU ) will soon be signing a massive deal with China “priced in Yuan” was a huge reason for market concerns / risk off type action over the last couple of days as I don’t imagine “that” was mentioned in American news.
I guess J.P Morgan ( one of Americas most “trusted banks” ) shit canned earnings / missing both top and bottom line expectations too but……you know….”that” can’t have much to do with anything either I suppose.
As well curious if anyone took note of my “short Japan trade” EWJ puts / short going back to March 31st?
Have a good weekend all.
Kong, Yes i did , (ewj puts) I am sorry to say i did not write down whose suggestion it was. Thanks again up almost 40%
These are looking very attractive Kong, I’m especially liking USD/CHF (as well as long GBP/CHF). I almost have a feeling they’ll “take everyone out” at a spike over EUR/USD above 1.40 before it collapses just to “screw people out of” an easy trade. AUD and NZD crosses should look good in May, could finally get GBP/NZD above 2.0 again.
Kong,
“Short japan trade”? I’m holding AUDJPY now.
Same thing ( for the most part Carey ) only that the damn Aussie has been so strong “regardless” of the selling off in Japan and now U.S.A
It’s not unual “at all” to see these two currencies AUD and NZD hang on “right until the end”, before rolling over.
Long and frustrating I know.
Short Japan trade- do you mean weaken in japan? Thats why short JPY?
Carey……weakness in Japan and Japan’s economy leads to JPY STRENGTH!
The currency goes UP as stocks are sold ( going down ) you see??
Yes kong. I realized YEN move another directly on their economy conditions. Haha… And she can be very scary like before usdjpy ever went down to 70.
Kong, yes I did take the trade. Sorry I didnt write down where I got the idea from or I would have commented earlier
Thanks again I am up about 40%
Nice work Kevin – good to hear.
you are shorting both GBP and AUD
what about GBP/AUD ? pair on a long term support think that it will move up from here ?? been stuck at these levels for some days now
Farhan….you’ve got to consider BOTH currencies in each pair you trade.
Being short GBP VS USD “may mean” Dollar Strength…..
Being long GBP/AUD “could suggest” AUD weakness…
Just because a single currency is included in a number of separate pairs….doesn’t mean “your position / view” of said currency is the same.
Let’s put it this way…..if GBP did nothing…..and AUD strengthed “against it” AS WELL USD strengthed against it….there you go.
As well imagine a weakening GBP and AUD AS WELL USD doing nothing.