One of the most entertaining parts about “financial blogging” truly lies within the “immediacy of it all” as….unlike “posting a recipe” (where people may choose to “give it a try or not”) here in the financial space – real money is at stake.
Traders on both sides of the fence get an opportunity to “compare as they dare” when fellows like myself ( and all you other guys with the balls to do so ) put it out there for all. You write it down…you make your move, and regardless of whether you fail or succeed – people really get a charge out of “watching you burn” – or “watching you earn”.
Oddly….or perhaps not so ( considering humanity in general ) I think the majority of people (as sick as it is ) rather “enjoy” watching others fail. Perhaps it makes then feel better about themselves – I can’t say for certain but…..I guess if I lived in a lean-to behind my grandmother’s trailer park and ate spam each day for breakfast, maybe I wouldn’t “mind so much” hearing that the guy eating lobster on a Caribbean beach took a hit or two.
I dunno….its small, it’s petty but for the most part – sounds pretty “human” to me.
In any case….by close today I will initiate the “first of three” planned trades ( as I always spread my total allocation to a given trade idea over 3 separate entries – over time ) short The U.S Dollar against a number of other currencies.
I assume the trade will pan out late January / early February ( or perhaps earlier ) with a total allocation / risk of 10K – spread over 3 separate entries over the coming days / weeks.
I have fully factored that the entire 10k could be lost….so for “lovers and haters alike” I invite you to follow along and comment ( uncensored ).
You can see what kind of “gorilla I can be” so……………….let’s see how “human” you can be.
Good luck to all.
MISERY LIKE COMPANY – HA HA
Ahhh wonderful……the first of the “human response”.
Thank you Jonny……what ever your comment means.
US still the ‘cleanest shirt in the closet’ ? – growth rate, interest rates, stability etc – funds still flow to $ in 2015 ?
Everyone has an opinion.
I don’t see “any growth rate” with unemployment as it stands but again……the media is a powerful thing.
Long term trend change in USD looks good, but not for the reasons most might imagine.
Mid 2015 interest rate rise will see interest rate differencial grow between USD and JPY but there will be a massive correction before that happens.
That’s my view at least.
Thanks Kong – will watch UUP for topping action – it’s at daily 70 rsi – guess it can plough on a bit yet so layering in the trades sounds good
UUP give you no “true insight” as…….its an ETF and equally manipulated.
Look at it only moving 2 bucks during this entire “Monster Dollar Rally”.
Grab some charts like EUR/USD or USD/JPY to get a real idea of USD movement.
UUP is just another Wall St. vehicle for rinsing the masses.
I’ll let you know regarless..
Today seems as good of time as any, I’ll bite on EUR/USD long at 1.20 and GBP under 1.54 myself. If you’re willing to risk 10k Kong, what are you hoping to “at least” make on this? Just curious what your risk/reward is on this particular trade of “catching a falling knife”?
Please keep in mind David…..the “staggered entry approach”.
I’m not laying 10k down this afternoon……not at all.
I will allocate a full 10k over coming / days / weeks….looking to grab the “macro turn” in USD.
The risk is 10k…..the reward will be not touching the trades for several months to come.
I figure…….10k total risk……50-60k getting out.
Wow, you’re really in it for the long haul, I too will be adding to my position size but will probably bail much earlier than you. I figure worst case, should be able to at least break even on EUR/USD on the initial 1.20 entry and profit on all the entries added under 1.20.
Yes David…I trade “deep and wide” and continue to caution short term traders that…..there hasn’t been a “real move” in months!
As well we need to keep in mind the amount of risk vs the total trade account – this representing a 5% risk for me.
Bold trade. I wouldn’t bet against the Dollar at this time. Seems too early to me. But anyways good luck!!!
Again I hope you understand the “staggered order approach”.
So many short term traders are looking for “an exact day” or an “exact level”. I don’t trade that way.
This trade may take the entire month to even “put on”…let along another month ( or even two ) before it’s closed.
I always break my allocation into at least 3 separate entries over time. This alows for much lower risk as it’s impossible to even “consider” laying down big money at “one particular level”……you spread it out.
I don’t mind at all if USD climbs higher, as I will have more than enough gas in the tank to plan my entries over time.
Shorting it at even higher levels? Suits me perfectly!
I understand your approach – doing the same. It’s not a guarantee though. I think you are at least half a year too early. It wouldn’t surprise me if the $ goes to 140 against the ¥. I would watch for gold going up with the $. If gold does indeed go up with the $ the relationship will break at some point in time and then the $ will dump and gold even further rally. But only one of many scenarios I’m watching. Keep us posted about your trades. Very interesting!!!
I’m certain we’ll need to see a large correction in USD/JPY “prior” to it moving to 140.
There will certainly be a time to “get long USD” vs JPY and many others. I feel that time will be when US Interest rates rise, and in turn – the interest rate differential becomes the driving factor.
Go go go ….and again – it’s a trade idea / plan – not a “life plan”!
It “is” very intersesting!
Hey Kong, thanks for the family wishes and all the best to you (and all) in 2015.
Dollar short? – take your profits before it bounces higher. Most charts as you say looking good to short but also good to bounce higher there after.
Always a pleasure.
Andy.
Give me a break. No one I know likes watching others fail, personally I just get sick of watching failures piss and moan and repeat their same behaviors. Dollar is going UP
Wow, what a move! I’m adding my 2nd position here on this huge gap!
I still think it’s too early to be looking at a “second installment” David so please…….make it a small one!
I’m just going for an easy gap fade on this, I think it’s pretty much guaranteed we’ll at least touch 1.20 this week. Usually big round numbers like that have to trade back and forth on both sides a few times before the move continues. Just like Dow 18k did and 17k before that. A lot of market share these similarities. USD/JPY 1.10 and 1.20 are more recent examples in Forex.
Awesome and ya……for a quick hit there is no question….the gap up is “More than appealing”.
Some smart people say that US is still in good standing. At least in comparison.
Peter Zeihan IF Uncut 2014 on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIdUSqsz0Io
A lot of good arguments there. What do you say?
I’m not particularily interested in what “some smart people say” but of course….there is always more than one way of looking at things.
There will always be an argument for both sides.