With the fundamentals “out the window” now going on some 6-9 months ( if not the entire year of 2014 ) traders and analysts alike have simply stuck with the familiar adage “you can’t fight The Fed ” and just buy the dip.
No question that “if” you’ve been able to endure the massive swings (Sept – Oct for example – essentially wiping the entire “yearly Dow gains” in a matter of 12 days ) or even the smaller one just recently ( drilling The Dow 1000 points in a matter of 6 days ) you should be very, very , very proud of yourself.
Oddly….you never really hear much from “perma bulls” during these times, and one really has to wonder…if it was just that easy to “buy and hold” – then shouldn’t virtually “everyone” be stinking filthy rich right around now??
Funny……you don’t really hear much of that kinda talk either, and by way of U.S unemployment figures ( another miss at 298,000 last week ) you have to appreciate the “mixed message” most people are getting. Is this thing going up? Or is this thing going down?
It’s really the “art of survival” these days. Bull or bear….if you’ve got some extra money in your pocket at the end of the year hey…..job well done.
2015 will undoubtedly bring with it an “even more challenging trade environment” as global geo-political tensions are clearly on the rise, Central Banks are “still” struggling to put floors underneath spiraling economies, and global growth forecasts have been cut, then cut…….then cut again.
I wish all of you the very best in the new year, and as always – encourage you to stay vigilant. The rug gets pulled very quickly, and if I’ve learned anything over these past few years….I’d rather be the guy standing over in the corner………. with a cold beer in hand when it does.
Happy New Year all!
USD up mkts up.. USD down mkts up… makes no sense at all
Huge divergence…..primarily because of such low volume.
Unfortunately it’s impossible to really “make sense” of these low volume times….at least in a daily sense.
Next week will bring “reality” back to markets.
so all that trillions to devalue the USD is wasted? imagine if the usd keeps going up… US will be crushed?
There is a bit of an “illusion” here with respect to USD strength…when what we are “truly seeing” is considerable weakness in most other currencies.
For the “time being” USD ( coupled with the continued hype that the US economy is on the rise ) looks like the big winner but…..
We know a strong US Dollar will in fact “crush the U.S Economy” as well the U.S Gov ability to service it’s debt ( priced in USD ) so…..the “illusion” continues for the short term – so it seems.
Today’s “spike” may just as well be the final push before reversal.
In the end though….as with Japan’s fleeting attempt to print it’s way out of the hole – yes you will see the massive amount of printed US Dollars inevitably turn out to be 100% totally wasted.
It’s the U.S tax payer that ends up footing the bill, as government spending continues – completely out of control.
When will Americans “stand up” and resist??
In my view…..likely never.