You know it’s funny…..human beings have become so lazy these days…so passive so….sedentary – they really just want to be told whats what. What’s going to happen. What to think. What to do.
Just lay it out for me in a couple of bold headlines and perhaps a small snippet of information please ( as anything more would simply be “just too much”. ) No need to get into any “great detail” – just tell me what to do so I cam make lots of money, and most importantly…think about very little.
Don’t raise any controversy, don’t rock the boat…don’t make me “question anything”. I only want sound, actionable information….and it MUST make me money while I do “as close to nothing” as humanly possible.
This is what is going to happen to the U.S Dollar, and this is what I am doing about it.
The_Next_U.S_Dollar_short
So there it is.
About as straight up / straight forward as it gets these days….right down to the levels, and the days. Is This gonna work for you, or would you also prefer that I push the buy and sell buttons for you too?
The last little “spike” in USD offers is yet another fantastic opportunity to “sell the rips” not “buy the dips” as we are in a very solid and confirmed daily downtrend.
USD Trend is down – the trade is short. This is a rip t be sold.
Do it. Make cash.
Or dollar will rally like in 2014. You did not predict dollar strength then and it seems you will miss this time too.
Totally wrong. No possible chance. Impossible.
I’m in the business of trading..not making predictions.
Stick to the plan here my friend! You’ll do great…and it’s not about being right every time..it’s about “managing risk” in order to still have a bank roll / participate in markets long enough to see the bigger wins.
Short USD will be one of these.
Bank on it.
Yeah, yeah. Of course you are making predictions. Point 3 on chart is a prediction => usd will go lower. There is a great chance it won’t, so more money to be made on long side. As for managing risk – spot on – nothing is certain.
You bet….I guess to a certain degree “predictions” are included but….never really hanging my hat on’em.
I make a plan “in advance” then look to implement said plan when things go my way…….
Things don’t always go my way.
Hi Kong,
Great post and very generous of you to share your thoughts on the USD.
However, out of education and curiosity, I’d like to know how you reconcile your USD short perspective to what Jim Rogers said recently, just a few days ago:
“the US dollar is strong and will continue to be strong, because everybody’s panicked about the world. And when there’s panic, people look for a safe haven… [People] think the US dollar is a safe haven. It’s not. It is certainly not. I own a lot of US dollars, though. Not because it’s a safe haven, but because people think it’s a safe haven. And when the world falls apart, people will put their money into the dollar. That’s going to mean the dollar’s going to go up, so that means a lot of currencies will go down, including the Chinese currency, including the European currency, the British currency. Many other currencies will go down. The dollar is going to get overpriced, and the dollar might even turn into a bubble, depending on how bad the turmoil is. If there’s no place to go– at the moment, people are also going into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.”
I know, of course, every trader has their own perspective, thoughts and plans. But do you see any agreement or disagreement with Jim’s thoughts?
Thanks!
Ironically…..I just read this: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-the-us-investing-legend-jim-rogers-2016-08-29
Looks like Jim has changed his tune ( sounds a lot like mine! )
I was actually surprised to hear your take on Jim Rogers prior to reading this as…I always thought he was a dollar bear too.
As well…….on the education side….in my view quite simply – The U.S Fed wiill need to crank up the printing presses again soon with QE5 so….that again suggests U.S Dollar value to plummet.
When the USD falls as you say it will do this week, which currency usually gets stronger in result? The Yen? How about the Pound? Where do you see those two going as a result?
both are going up – yes.
What happens to pairs such as GBP/JPY? I would assume the JPY would get a bigger spike than other currencies as a result of people selling off USD?
JPY should rise – yes…..but in the wake of USD going down GBP may also be perceived as “rising”. Just gotta get your pairs straight…and not throw a blanket on anything.
GBP/JPY will rise on RISK OFF regardless.
Hi Kong,
Just to clarify, Jim hasn’t changed his tune… when he said “Short the US”, it’s actually part of the same interview as the quote I posted.
More details here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-27/jim-rogers-explains-what-he-doing-next-time-world-comes-end
If I understand correctly, what he means when he says “Short the US” is to short US stocks. Not the dollar. He’s still bullish on the dollar in the same interview in which he said “short the US”.
Gotcha….well it’s kinda surprising as I generally feel Jim has his head screed on right.
I guess when looking at it from his perspective still considering that “people think” USD is a safe haven when it really isn’t…there is merit there.
Just that…….this is too simplified, and there are too many moving parts to just generalize that “USD will be strong”.
I feel the world at large has clearly moved away from USD safety, jut that it will take the general public much longer to see, and even longer to accept!
Yeah, I agree that lots of geopolitical events are pointing to a move away from the USD.
And even guys like Peter Schiff say it’s a long way down for the USD. But when you’ve got a smart cookie like Jim Rogers who comes along and says he’s not bearish on the USD like everyone else, it can’t help but make one pause to think 🙂
I guess there’s nothing really much else to say other than… Be safe, trade safe 🙂
These guys…..flip and flop around (as we all do at times) and it’s always tough to nail down a timeline.
A guy like Jim might suggest something in passing, where it sounds like a near / medium term thing…..then one realizes he’s looking out 15 years!
On some time frame or another……everyone is right at some point. Round n round she goes….exactly – just trade safe!