The ViX trade ( long UVXY at 11.80 ) has spiked 14% this morning alone.
Holding short USD trades against a number of other currencies – still seeing trades climb higher as USD continues to “waterfall” ( remember the “suggested waterfall some days ago? ) as 17 days of longs holding positions – wiped out in a single session.
You’ve “hoped” and you’ve “held” long positions for a full 17 days now…..almost a full month you will never get back.Poof! Wiped in a single session.
I’m back in “celebration mode” here this morning as things have worked out rather well for ol Kong.
So……
How do I time this stuff?
First of all……I check my emotions at the door, and don’t take an “emotional stand” on whether markets are moving higher or lower. I don’t give a rats ass…and you shouldn’t either. If you are learning to “trade” then you’ve got to stop thinking about “investing”. You continue to deny that anything can go wrong, and you continue to view “the short side” as some kind of demonic evil. Ridiculous.
You don’t think the big banks and Wall St. big shots get short? Please…..pull your head outta the sand. As much as the media coverage may show you “Carnage on Wall St. as Stocks Slide” – these guys where selling you stock all the way up and “gladly” shift the algorithm’s to “short as f&%k” to see you get cleaned out. You can guarantee it.
I can go on and on about my technical indicators ( only one – The Kongdicator ) as well my general view of the world ( as cynical as it is ) but neither of these will really give you much insight.
There is a “creativity” in all of this, and it’s something that is learned over years and years of study and practice. It’s the currency markets that provide the most “actionable information” coupled with as large a “macro view” as you can muster – in order to see past the news. A little confidence doesn’t hurt either but that my friends – comes later.
Cycles also play a role as human beings generally move as a heard. If you can start to distinguish the patterns / repetition – eventually you’ll win. This also takes time but…is certainly not beyond the learning / capabilities of your average Joe.
For fun why don’t you pull up a chart and try to count the number of days between significant “lows or highs” in any given asset and see if you can find any pattern. If you look hard enough you will see these same patterns / repetitions on any time frame…only that they become less and less reliable the more granular you go.
Anything under a 1H chart is noise…and even the 1H needs close attention.
Give it a go and get back to me. I’m not much for “teaching this stuff” as much as I am with “sharing my activity” but…hey – let’s see if you come up with anything.
Forex_Kong_Human_Form
So u closing ur short dollars trades at 111 for usdjpy?
Absolutely.
Hey Kong, great work man. You might have been early on several prior calls but you absolutely nailed this one. A perfect trade like this can generate a couple of months’ worth of profit.
Don’t forget to remind your readers about leverage and risk management. IMO that’s the number 1 determinant of FX trading success.
Thanx so much Chun.
You don’t hitt’em like this “every time” so you are 100% correct! A nice trade…….but also ( much like forex ) a risky one.
I don’t leave money on the table very long, and may very well just count my blessings and cash out on UVXY later today / tomorrow!
You use TOS for your forex trades?
I use it for charting but don’t enter my orders via TOS – no.
I don’t like my broker to know / understand my charting. Two different things right?
I chart in one software. I enter trades in another.
-You’re a fuckin animal with a sharp edge-
What’s ur take on audjpy ? Also taking audjpy short off the table along with usdjpy?
I’ll hang around another day er two with these JPY trades – closely watching “risk” as……
You see a down -375 Dow day like this and you half “expect” the ol Fed / PPT team to jump in there and save it.
Ask yourself…..short of being lucky as f#%k – what are the chances in this environment that “another” -300 type day happens tomorrow? Not likely.
I’ve booked a 35% win on UVXY today ( sold at the close ) and will re evaluate tomorrow mid day.
If I miss shit I miss shit…..I don’t look at it that way anymore.
Mr. Kong – I have been a reader since I saw a link to your site on Zero Hedge.
As a long time EUR/USD Forex trader using my own automated algorithm you are absolutely correct when you state “Anything under a 1H chart is noise…and even the 1H needs close attention” and “I check my emotions at the door, and don’t take an “emotional stand” on whether markets are moving higher or lower. I don’t give a rats ass”.
For the hat trick you are also correct monitoring the JPY for risk on/off. Its all about liquidity flows and not crazy arrows on charts pointing to the depths of Hell or the outer bounds of Heaven..
That is why the unemotional 4 hour “robot” switched from short to long on 5/12 @ 12 PM Eastern and is currently ITM 233 pips as of this evening. This corresponds to your call between 5/8 “Entries Short Risk” – 5/15 “Get Short USD – Friday Worked For Me”.
Keep up the great work Kong little wonder you are KING.
Thnx for the input here – I’m sure others are also appreciative.
I am what I am, short of who I am to you.
This I cannot answer.
Again thank you for your support/interest.
Good looking gorilla in photo
Brilliant timing Kong!
I played risk off short eminis on the S&P myself and kept sounding the alarms on the SPY thread on stock twits last week about how this week was going to be carnage and bears could finally celebrate… Gut feeling on this one and timed just right like yourself… Luck or skill, perhaps a little of both this time… It was literally the biggest decline we had all year and top 10 biggest VIX spikes… Wish I had some UVXY like yourself.
Kong, you going long the usd about now? Any thoughts on the cryptos, ethereum specifically?
You guys are getting good at this!!
Bang on my friend…I will be looking for longs on any kind of intra day pullback tomorrow – you nailed it!