40 Days Trading – Wiped Clean In 72 Hours

I get the impression that for the most part…..many of you aren’t “particularily thrilled” with what you read here day to day.

You may pass by occasionally, maybe looking to “round out your daily reading” with something a little different, or perhaps you check in once in a while for a laugh at what “ol Kong” has to say about this or that, or maybe ( just as likely ) you stop by with a tiny little “chip there on your shoulder” hoping all the while ( somewhere there in the back of your mind…) that I’m flat out 100% wrong. That’s right – wrong.

Dead wrong. Completely wrong. Totally wrong. No?

Wouldn’t you rather that I’m wrong?

How bout the Japanese Nikkei crapping out at 15,000 and in turn……40 “trading days” of SP 500 profits wiped clean within 72 hours?

You liked that one?

I’ll bet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If Not Gorillas – We Are All But Cows

Let’s say you’re a cow farmer with your “bread and butter business” relying  on how fat/large your cows can get – then the appropriate time to slaughter/sell in order to maximize your profits.

Over time you feed your cows what they need, you even massage them ( in the case of Kobi beef ) you take care of their overall well-being, you protect them from predators and do for the most part – whatever you can to foster “maximum growth”.

The cows appear content, and everything is looking good as your herd has fatten up quite nicely over the past 5 years but finally…………….the time has come.

You’ve caught wind of large storms brewing the east, you’ve had a few renovation costs on the farm, feed costs are set to rise and you’ve done everything you can – given this extended period of good fortune to “fatten the heard”.

Round up ensues.

After some time, you’ve got most of them in the corral but….for those few last stragglers you’ve set out something special……something “gaurenteed” to get them in, and get them in quickly.

The cows just can’t resist, and before long your corral is literally “packed”, you can’t take a single cow more, the storm is clearly seen on the horizon, and the machines running on the “inside of the factory” are primed. Blades sharpened, belts tightened, grinders set.

You’ve timed it perfectly.

You are a master of your craft, a master of deception as the herd of “happy cows” come “willingly down the chute”, bowing their heads to come underneath the structures above, and aligning their heads “absolutely perfectly in line” with what we’ll just call……..the final surprise.

The herd has served you well, as you knew this would be the case…….. but that’s not quite enough for you no……..

It’s those calfs out in the field you’ve got your eyes on now.

Nikkei Has Topped – There I Said It Dumb Ass

It’s my belief that the Japanese “Nikkei Index” has indeed topped, and actually did so back around 16,450 at the beginning of the year. Ya, ya , ya – I don’t usually do this / make such bold calls but what the hell…..these days I see every bozo under the sun suggesting things will go up forever so…..you can “take heed” or “take a hike” – trade it as you see fit.

This last “run up to around 15,000” ( where I’ve suggested again, and again, and again we’d see reversal ) has been what some might consider “wave 2” ( if you are an Elliot Wave guy ) leaving open consideration for a much larger “next leg down”.

The Nikkei topped AHEAD OF THE DOW in 2007 in very much the same fashion.

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Remember this “beauty” from a few months back showing the Nikkei over a 20 year time frame?

*Draw a horizontal line at 15,000 in your mind. That is what we call a very, very, VERY strong line of either support or resistance – considering it’s significance over such a long period of time.

 

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Japan is a disaster, and when looking at things in this context – so is everything else as…..the Nikkei generally leads.

Perhaps this will shed some light as well….on my views about Central Banking and money printing as ( if you can imagine ) the massive dilution of the Yen ( as well USD ) over the past years, if only to achieve an incremental “short-term rise” in stock prices then……..to see things fall right back to where they started – just with waaaaay more “toilet paper” floating around.

Nothing has really changed, short of an incredible “transfer of wealth” from those already left with very little………to those who’ve already got a lot more than they need.

(P.S….in light of this “bold post” I might as well throw caution to the wind and tell you to run out tomorrow, sell your house, rack up every credit card you can, sell everything you own, leverage everything you’ve got another 500%, then “pre – market” dump every penny on a get rich quick “short play” Nikkei/Dow/whatever”, sit back and just watch the millions pile up.)

Please……..don’t be silly. I’m a single gorilla, with a single opinion and view of these things that for the most part – doesn’t generally fit the status quo.

Don’t be a dumb ass.

I know you’re not.

 

 

 

 

What Do You Know? – I'm All Ears

Friday’s sell off in U.S Equities certainly took a number of people by surprise now didn’t it?

This in itself “not surprising” as the current state of “passivity” and “complacency” among investors is at or “above” all time highs. People have got this crazy idea in their heads that everything is moving along as planned, the “recovery” is well underway and that essentially ( no matter how many times they change their tune ) the Fed is there to screw you oops – “save you” if things start to get ugly.

I borrowed this chart from the good fellows at Zero Hedge to illustrate an important point.

Realistically – how much further do you think the market can stretch ( considering we are already in one of the longest, overstretched, Fed induced, pump job markets in the history of mankind ) before doing what “markets always do” as illustrated in the chart below?

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

What could possibly have you think that for “whatever reason” – this time it’s going to be different, with historical data going back to “the beginning of time” showing the “boom and bust cycle” repeat, again , and again , and again?

Tell me! Don’t just read this crummy little blurp and go back to the T.V! You tell me what it is that “you know” that has it that “this time”…yes “THIS TIME” – IT’S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT.

  • It can’t be the Fed…..cuz ( haven’t you been listening? ) the Fed says it’s going to continue with it’s tapering and within the next year END IT’S QE PROGRAM all together….so don’t give me that.
  • It certainly won’t be U.S Corporate earnings as expectations for earnings have come down considerably for the first quarter, and what? You imagine the spring and summer quarters will be any better?
  • It can’t be “global growth” as every estimate from the IMF down to the average joe blow walking down the street knows – global growth “ain’t goin nowhere” anytime soon so…….

So what is it Sherlock? What is it that “you know” that the rest of us don’t, that would have you “buy and hold” now?

5 plus years of full blown money printing and equity pump job to have it that 326,000 MORE Americans stood in the unemployment insurance line last week, and 1 in 5 households in American are currently on food stamps.

I can’t wait to hear back. I seriously “can’t wait” to hear back.

 

Nikkei Loses 15,000 – Need I Say More?

I don’t know what you people are watching these days….likely too much T.V.

The Nikkei just broke below 15,000 oh and look!!

U.S stocks taking a hit, as the final gasps of “hot money” out of Japan start heading for home in preparation for whats coming next.

JPY making a very VERY solid move higher as we’ve been over about a million times.

But let’s just forget all about that….and keep our eyes peeled for CNBC to tell us when things will go higher.

Disgust. Horror. Disdain. Vomit. Choke. Sputter.

More Of The Same – Markets Chase Tail

Gold taking a bounce here as would be expected.

I’ve got plans to sell nearly anything and “everything” gold and silver related mid-week “next week” on whatever continued strength.

You can’t look past the fact that tensions with Russia ( as well China really ) could put even more strain on the U.S Dollar ( ie……these big boys “selling” ) so……with this in mind….do I think the Fed will let go of its grasp on gold and silver in the paper market “tomorrow”?

Not likely.

Otherwise….stopped out on GBP/AUD and will just try again. So it goes…..so goes trading – no big thing.

Otherwise….all data out of U.S continues to “completely miss” with this morning looking as bleak as ever…so obviously stocks rise.

Yen strength here ( odd in light of “risk” climbing higher ) in stark contrast to “all is well” mentality running at extremes.

Night night Ukraine as the IMF finally gets its mits on The Ukraine with promise of massive loans etc..

Friday morning with little else to say or do.

 

Have a good weekend all.

 

 

 

Chinese Fire Sale – U.S Dollar Up In Smoke

Make no mistake…China “will” take the hit on those warehouses filled with “useless dollar bills”, or at least what’s left of them by the time they’ve used all they can to buy gold.

As the “macro plans” continue to take shape, the Chinese will soon look back on the “massive fires that raged through the warehouse district” as a passing story in the news – in the context of a “time of change”.

Consider trading hockey cards with a couple of the other kids on your street. All of the same set and series, until a month or two later a new set is introduced and you start trading those. More kids are buying and trading these “new cards” until finally – all you’re left with is a tiny box of the “old ones” eating up precious storage space under your bed.

Eventually you forget all about them, as the trade of these “new cards” now has you buying and trading with little concern for the “few dollars lost” on the inventory of “old cards” gathering mold underneath your bed.

I think that sums it up.

As China continues to grow its domestic economy, and promote trade in Yuan as opposed to the U.S Dollar, it’s really only a matter of time until both China as well “a large portion of the industrialized world” separates completely from any dependence on a U.S imposed system of trade in U.S Dollars.

We good here?

No terrorism here. No “bash America” / China to rule the world type thing no.

Just a simple outline of how a couple of countries on this planet have grown to be less “export dependent” and more “domestically driven” and far less interested in the purchase and hold of U.S “funny money”- with the unfortunate result leaving The United States and it’s continued devaluation of the U.S Dollar  – out in the cold.

As the Fed continues to “mask” the true devaluation of the U.S Dollar by shorting the gold paper market and driving prices down, China gladly scoops up every ounce she can – demanding “actual delivery of the physical gold”.

China will continue to not only produce more gold, but as well purchase more gold “on the cheap” with every single “Fed raid in the paper market” to soon present the Yuan as a completely convertible currency on the global stage.

Complete with stockpiles of “real gold” sitting in vast warehouses behind it…..somewhere on the other side of the tracks.

So what does this mean for the future of the U.S Dollar and it’s use as the worlds reserve currency? What does this mean for the massive amounts of money previously gained by the U.S via the “use” of USD in trade world wide – soon to be lost?

 

 

China Reserves – Gold And A New Economy

So holding the world’s reserve currency with no need to justify / verify that anything of “real value” ( such as gold ) stood behind “said currency” sure gave the United States and incredible advantage / gift no?

With a “U.S Dollar system” now in place, and demand for those dollars “world-wide” ( as in order to buy a commodity such as sugar, gas or oil – other countries needed  to convert their local currency to USD first ) U.S Dollar printing and exporting literally “exploded”.

Exploded all right.

With complete and total disrespect for the privileges given, years of gross government spending and expansion, several “senseless wars” and total abuse of the U.S Dollar ( with it’s role as the worlds reserve currency )…things exploded alright.

Into the 17 “Trillion Dollars” The United States currently finds itself in debt.

Now, for the longest time China played right along ( in order to keep trade with the U.S stable ) pegging the Yuan to the U.S Dollar and buying tonnes of U.S government issued bonds as well amassing incredible U.S Dollar reserves in order to purchase commodities for it’s own growing population.

Back in the day China had little choice but to play along as its own economy was really only just getting started.

In 1994 when China pegged the Yuan to USD she lacked the population centers and distribution networks needed for a stronger “consumer-oriented domestic economy” to take hold. China’s only choice at the time ( lacking a large domestic economy ) was to remain focused on the continued strength of its exports, and its unfortunate relationship” with the ever depreciating U.S Dollar.

Well that was then…….and this is “now”.

A few things for you to consider before I wrap this up, and perhaps you’ll see where I’m going with all this….before I even get there.

  • China is currently the world’s largest producer of gold, and has been actively buying gold at record amounts month over month.
  • China’s economy is set to expand by an additional 7.5% in 2014 in comparison to the U.S economy lucky to grow at all, and more likely to continue into recession.
  • China’s central bank has said it no longer sees any benefit in increasing its $3.66 trillion foreign currency reserves, meaning no more U.S bond buying.
  • China currently has bilateral trade agreements ( trade outside of use of the U.S Dollar ) with more than 20 countries including Russia, Australia , Brasil , Mexico , The United Kingdom “and” even the EU!

Please refer to the complete list half way down the page located here at Wikipedia.

So in a nutshell the recent “domestic growth” in China has finally created a “consumer based economy” where in products manufactured in China are now able to be sold in China.To the extent that local businesses now exist and  “prosper” with little reliance on “exporting” and a decreasing reliance on anything to do with “exchange to USD.

We good so far? Makes sense right? Years of internal growth finally culminating in a society / economy able to stand alone and support its own domestic businesses ya? An “export based economy” now looking to become a “consumer based economy”? Pretty straight forward really.

So…..China has literally “warehouse after warehouse stuffed to the rafters” with U.S Dollars that are rapidly depreciating ever day the Fed’s printing presses keep running, with little interest in keeping / using these dollars as every day goes by.

China can now buy and sell any number of goods with a large portion of the industrialized world with little to no concern for the dollar, and has now built a “consumer based economy” of its own capable of supporting growth – with decreasing concern for export.

So…….What is she gonna do with all those U.S Dollars sitting there gathering dust and losing value as we speak?

I’ll wind this up ( I promise ) with one more post outlining what China plans to do about all this….and how it will likely affect things in the West.

The Nixon Shock – Gold, China And USD

I want to explain something, that I think most of you will find beneficial ( much of the material reworded from Wikipedia ) as well bring it “up to speed” as to what it means in today’s day and age. This might go on for a couple of posts.

After WWII the “international financial powers that be” agreed to create a system wherein the U.S Dollar was placed deliberately as the anchor of the system, with the US government guaranteeing that every US dollar held in reserve – could be exchanged at a fixed rate for gold.

Everyone agreed to use a single currency ( the U.S Dollar ) for international trade, and that those dollars could be exchanged for a “fixed rate of 35 dollars” for an ounce of gold.

This is what is meant by a “gold backed” currency, providing holders of that currency the “confidence” that the pieces of paper in their hands are “actually worth something”…that something being gold.

For every dollar on the planet an equal amount / value in gold, should the holder of that dollar choose to own gold instead.

Got it? Excellent.

This made things “relatively” straight forward as countries around the world “pegged” their local currency to the U.S Dollar, and the U.S Dollar was pegged to the price of gold.

Price “stability” had been established.

So for the first years after World War II, the system worked well as foreigners wanted dollars in order to  spend on American goods such as cars, steel “manufactured” in the U.S.

The U.S. owned over half the world’s official gold reserves ( 574 million ounces at the end of World War II ) so the system appeared secure.

Well….by around 1966 ( due to excessive spending by the U.S for the Vietnam War as well many domestic programs ) the U.S realized that foreign banks reserves had grown to about $14 billion dollars, while the United States had only $13.2 billion in gold reserve. Of those reserves, only $3.2 billion was able to cover foreign holdings as the rest was covering domestic holdings.

essentially the U.S had printed ” a few too many dollars” to cover the actual amount of physical gold held in their vaults.

Soon foreign countries ( holding depreciating USD ) began demanding redemption of these dollars for “real gold”. Switzerland redeemed $50 million, then France acquired $191 million etc until finally on the afternoon of Friday, August 13, 1971 President Nixon “literally pulled the rug out from under the system” ( The Nixon Shock ) and closed the gold window – forbidding foreign holders of U.S Dollars from exchanging them for gold, essentially “sticking foreign holders of U.S Dollars” with a currency now set to be dramatically devalued.

The Nixon Shock unleashed enormous speculation against the dollar as you can imagine. With no gold behind them, the value of “boatloads” of U.S Dollars distributed world wide……..now put into question.

I promise I’ll skip the middle part…and get this up to what’s happening in the world “right now” with China’s movement/interests  in particular.

 

 

 

Bearish On Japan – EWJ As A Play

Looking at the Nikkei “pump job” this morning, as well JPY getting hammered,coupled with the sales tax implementation and latest string of “terrible data” out of Japan I’m about as bearish on Japan as one could be.

It doesn’t look like Japan is going to be able to do much more “stimulus wise” until maybe even July.

Get this……the government is also now telling residents previously living a short 20 km from the Fukushima Plant that it’s SAFE to go back home. SAFE?!

Unreal.

For those into stocks one could consider short plays on “EWJ” or even a couple ( tiny tiny! ) longer dated put options “short” late tomorrow or even mid-week.

As for us currency guys..the Japanese Yen continues to wallow, as the BOJ continues to do all it can to keep this boat afloat. I’m still waiting for a more substancial signal / move before trying “yet again” to get long JPY ( short of a few trades already initiated ).

Look for continued news / headlines and likely larger moves DOWN in the Nikkei Japanese Stock Market up around 15,000.