I don’t know what you people are watching these days….likely too much T.V.
The Nikkei just broke below 15,000 oh and look!!
U.S stocks taking a hit, as the final gasps of “hot money” out of Japan start heading for home in preparation for whats coming next.
JPY making a very VERY solid move higher as we’ve been over about a million times.
But let’s just forget all about that….and keep our eyes peeled for CNBC to tell us when things will go higher.
Disgust. Horror. Disdain. Vomit. Choke. Sputter.
The Yen Carry Trade Unwind: When the Music Stops Playing
While the mainstream media scrambles to explain why markets are suddenly looking shaky, the real story has been unfolding in plain sight for months. The massive yen carry trade – where investors borrowed cheap Japanese yen to buy higher-yielding assets worldwide – is finally reversing. And when a multi-trillion dollar trade unwinds, it doesn’t whisper. It screams.
The JPY strength we’re seeing isn’t some temporary blip. It’s the beginning of a fundamental shift that will reshape global markets. As Japanese rates normalize and the Bank of Japan steps away from its ultra-loose monetary policy, all that borrowed yen needs to come home. Fast.
Follow the Smart Money, Not the TV Money
The Nikkei breaking 15,000 is your canary in the coal mine. Japanese equities are getting hammered as foreign capital flows reverse and domestic investors reassess valuations in a higher rate environment. But here’s what the talking heads won’t tell you – this is just the appetizer.
Smart money has been positioning for this unwind for months. While retail traders were chasing the latest meme stock or waiting for the next Fed pivot fairy tale, institutional players were quietly reducing risk and preparing for volatility. The USD weakness we’ve been calling isn’t happening in isolation – it’s part of this broader deleveraging cycle.
The Domino Effect: From Tokyo to New York
When U.S. stocks start catching a bid downward alongside the Nikkei, that’s not coincidence. That’s correlation through causation. American equities have been artificially inflated by decades of cheap Japanese money flowing into risk assets. As that liquidity dries up, valuations that seemed reasonable suddenly look stretched.
Tech stocks, growth names, anything that required cheap financing to justify its price – they’re all in the crosshairs. The market has been pricing in perfection while ignoring the underlying structural shifts. Reality has a way of reasserting itself, usually when you least expect it.
This isn’t about fundamentals suddenly deteriorating overnight. The fundamentals have been questionable for years. What’s changing is the availability of cheap capital to paper over those cracks.
Why JPY Strength is Just Getting Started
The yen’s move higher isn’t a trade – it’s a trend. Japan’s demographic reality means they need capital at home, not exported abroad. An aging population requires domestic investment in healthcare, infrastructure, and productivity enhancements. The days of Japan exporting its savings to chase yield overseas are numbered.
Currency movements of this magnitude don’t happen in straight lines, but the direction is clear. Every bounce in USD/JPY is a selling opportunity. Every dip in the yen is a chance to add to long positions. The rally scenario everyone’s hoping for requires cheap money, and that spigot is shutting off.
Trading the Unwind: Positioning for What’s Next
Forget the noise about soft landings and goldilocks economies. Focus on flows. Capital that has been parked in U.S. assets for years is heading home to Japan. That creates opportunities for traders willing to think beyond the next earnings report or Fed meeting.
Long JPY against everything isn’t just a trade – it’s a macro positioning for the next phase of global markets. Short the Nikkei on any bounce. Fade U.S. equity strength, especially in sectors that have been most dependent on cheap financing.
The unwind creates volatility, and volatility creates opportunity. But only if you’re positioned correctly and thinking independently. The TV analysts will catch up eventually, probably right around the time the easy money has already been made.
This isn’t a correction – it’s a recalibration. And recalibrations don’t ask permission from your favorite financial network before they happen.
target upside on the yen?
Looks like it’s turning…….what’s your target on the yen?
Appreciate the blog, love the realism, cynicism, and good humor…
Far to early for an upside target on YEN as we’ve “still” not even really seen a solid turn but, I expect that “when she comes” it will be in conjunction with some brutal big loooooooong red candles in the stocks market.
Will be nice to see “stars align” here and get some correlated selling across the board, and a solid “weekly candle” higher in JPY.
If Abe isn’t lookin to further stimulate til July…and I expect U.S earnings to look bleak in coming days….perhaps we turn the corner here in general but…………you realize that every Central Bank on the planet wants otherwise.
I am extremely grateful for your ideas, they are MUCH better than any signal. Don`t drink too much Tequila please, you will hopefully never retire…..
Funny you should say….as I’ve recently debated “packing it in” as per my continued disapointment with humanity in general.
The spaceship is more or less ready to go, and I’ve more or less seen / done everything I’d imagined.
Then these damn pyramids in Bosnia get discovered and…….I’m not going anywhere!!
Thanks for the support Michael….I’m here to stay.
so AUD again tested .93 and now i am really scared as i am almost 70% in red plus GBP/AUD is also being hammered down ,,
very confused about about what to do ,,
i think of closing every trade to save something so that i would keep in the game , and then think that had been patience for like 2 months now , may b it will turn from here , but if it didnt then i am really screwed ,,
professional advice any one ?
Hey Farhan,
I myself also holding AUD/JPY and 2 positions AUD/USD. Commods higher, AUD rates remain (although no rate hikes but peoples thought AUD rate it would be raise initially). Few good datas from AU so all these made AUD up so much). AU D1 chart is double top now. I guess it may fall very soon. Perhaps any others here can give some opinions?
Hi Carey….I was stopped out of GBP/AUD at 1.79 yes….and am just going to try again. This pair fits into the category of “face ripper” so…..I trade extremely small…and with stop loss.
For “whatever” reason..and I can say honestly I don’t know what reason…..AUD has remained one of the strongest currencies over the past month.
It’s a killer I know, and I can’t justify “how or why”.
My strategy of “small orders over time” has me only a few short pips away from break even, with enough gas in the tank to add, again , then again and yet again so…..with the “pinbar” candle forming as of Friday….I see the reversal is literally ” a day or two away” in my view.
The Nikkei looks set to reverse hard here so…..that means JPY strength.
There are no “fundamental reasons” for the rise. But if you check a weekly chart first….it’s in a downtrend, and we are now “massively overbought” in a daily chart so…..I expect the turn very soon.
But i didn’t you set SL for your GBP/AUD?
Hey Kong and Farhan,
I didn’t expect AUD can rally so much since from 2 weeks ago. Kong, u just need few pips away for break even? I still need 150 pips man lol. Forex is a real bitch. So either take it or leave it.
I’m waiting for YEN get much more strengthen so that AUD/JPY can like a slides drop. When? I don’t know. I could see D1 chart so U turn soon.
Btw how deep AUD/JPY can down from the chart you look at Kong? 92 is kinda possible.
Call me crazy Carey but……….I think the Nikkei could go as low as 12,000 on the next leg down so….
This would be more than enough action to see AUD/JPY down big time.
150 pips without question.
150 pips is not enough kong. Haha as i have waited for so long ever lol
Anything 250/300 pips would be fantastic for all of us, isn’t it? I wanted to short at the top 9649 last Friday but yet wprried to burden my account margin and i didn’t added one, could you imagine how pathetic i was. Whahahha
So what have you learned here Carey?
I imagine that other readers would also appreciate you sharing what you’ve learned.
Will you trade “smaller” in the future?
Kong, seriously i trade not big. But my positions was from 91. I can’t imagine if i trade big, my account should died long long ago.
Ok.
He he he…….
You are wise beyond your years young grasshoppa….perhaps the student becomes master?
Way to go Carey….I think you’ll be fine.