forex market analysis

The U.S Dollar – Here’s What Happens Next

Forex Kong 14 Comments

You know it’s funny…..human beings have become so lazy these days…so passive so….sedentary – they really just want to be told whats what. What’s going to happen. What to think. What to do.

Just lay it out for me in a couple of bold headlines and perhaps a small snippet of information please ( as anything more would simply be “just too much”. ) No need to get into any “great detail” – just tell me what to do so I cam make lots of money, and most importantly…think about very little.

Don’t raise any controversy, don’t rock the boat…don’t make me “question anything”. I only want sound, actionable information….and it MUST make me money while I do “as close to nothing” as humanly possible.

This is what is going to happen to the U.S Dollar, and this is what I am doing about it.

The_Next_U.S_Dollar_short

The_Next_U.S_Dollar_short

So there it is.

About as straight up / straight forward as it gets these days….right down to the levels, and the days. Is This gonna work for you, or would you also prefer that I push the buy and sell buttons for you too?

The last little “spike” in USD offers is yet another fantastic opportunity to “sell the rips” not “buy the dips” as we are in a very solid and confirmed daily downtrend.

USD Trend is down – the trade is short. This is a rip t be sold.

Do it. Make cash.

Kong On Fire – A Look At Weeks Past

Forex Kong 2 Comments

I’d been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time ( as markets continued to astound ) until just recently taking aim at a couple nice set ups. Here’s a look back a couple of weeks. Let’s see how ‘l Kong made out.

Short USD: August 1st – CHECK

The Wait Is Over – USD Rejected at 200 SMA

 

Crude Oil Bottom: August 3rd Post – CHECK

Crude Oil – Reverse Head And Shoulders

USD/JPY To Parity – Nasdaq Double Top – CHECK

U.S Stocks Pull Back – Watch Nasdaq, USD/JPY

Patience always the key when trading. You really need to plan your attack and not get caught chasing markets. In any case…pleased to be back in action. Looking forward  to my next adventure. Stay tuned folks, and if there is anyone here from Chile ( Yes the country of Chile…in South America yes ) please drop me a line.

Stock Market Trickery – Don’t Be Fooled

Forex Kong 2 Comments

The chart says it all, as many a reader still has this illusion that “stock market highs = economic prosperity”.

Count your blessings if you’ve made out well….watch for post election mayhem.

Stock_Market_Trickery_-__Don't_Be_Fooled

Stock_Market_Trickery_-__Don’t_Be_Fooled

The current “gong show” playing out in U.S politics simply cannot be ignored ( as much as I’d love to just see this go away) as the economic “shit storm” brewing underneath continues to gather steam. I implore you..can any of you find a single “legit argument” that the price of U.S Equities will continue to climb past November?

As suggested in the previous post. It’s time to start making a plan. It’s time to batten down the hatches and consider “what the hell you are going to do with your current portfolio” as “E Day” ( election day ) draws near.

Any solid arguments that Clinton can improve/save it? How bout Trump?

From the jungle side looking in……I can’t see any good coming from either but….so we shall see.

Opinions and views more than welcome.

 

Rate Hike In The U.S.A – Total Bullshit

Forex Kong 10 Comments

I’m sure by now you are all well aware –  I can’t stand the mainstream media.

I cringe every time I see some “breaking news story” ( particularly in the U.S ) hinting of rate hikes, when in reality…..this is complete and total bullshit.

Let’s do a test.

Ask yourself if this mornings headlines such as “Fed rate hike odds jump on positive July employment report” didn’t bend your ear. Sounds pretty certain. Sounds like the odds of a rate hike are right around the corner.

You didn’t read the rest of the story. As you live in a world so full of information….your habits have changed, your DNA on the move. You don’t “read” anymore. You scan. Exposed to more information per day than people 20 years ago had available “per decade” –  you have no real idea what to believe, as there is so much bullshit out there….so much crap…you’ve morphed into a “scanner” and not a reader. Soon to be a tiny body with an oversized head, sitting in a chair of virtual reality – sipping some algae/protein/zanex based concoction – sold to you by Dupont.

U.S Rate Hike - Total Bullshit

U.S Rate Hike – Total Bullshit

The probability for a rate hike in September jumped to 18%, from the 12% registered prior to the data, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

You getting this? a jump in probability from 12% to 18%…….and markets go wild. Kinda like a jump from “zeeeeeeero” to never….but the spin doctors got’choo.

Do yourself a favor……….stop watching cable. You are not yourself.

Note the bold text in this post.

Looks like I “got’choo” too. Rate hike impossible. Not gonna happen. Actually……an 82% change it’s not gonna happen.

Oooops……isn’t that what you read?

 

Crude Oil – Reverse Head And Shoulders

Forex Kong 2 Comments

For those of you that looooooove technical patterns and set ups –  crude oil is starting to look good.

If we’ve established that The U.S Dollar is set for a solid turn lower ( which we have! ) then it only makes sense that commodities “priced in USD” should be shaping up to make the inverse move higher.

Crude Oil Set To Move Higher

Crude_Oil_Entry

Crude_Oil_Entry

Considering this incredibly long period of consolidation / distribution in most asset classes, it looks like we are finally going to see a number of “standard correlations” come back into effect.

A large move lower in USD being the key factor, as these assets priced in U.S Dollars begin to move higher.

I’m simply ignoring “any and all” other news  with respect to inventory / consumer demand etc as oil will take a sizable jump on further USD weakness.

 

Timed To Perfection – USD Gets Cooked

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.

Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.

dollar-on-fire

dollar-on-fire

The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.

Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.

Boom……. thar she be.

 

 

 

 

Change Your Thinking – Down Means Up

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Let me ask you this…….

Just because half a countries people ( yes half……as the vote was so close ) have voted to leave the E.U ( yes that’s right – The U.K is now looking to separate ) does that mean their currency just goes in the toilet?

Off the top of your head, what evidence currently exists to support such an argument?

Quickly consider the opposite.

Could it not be very good news for the Great British Pound? Could this not also be seen as “great news” for Britain, the economy and the countries well-being longer term?

Can you quickly compile a list of the “pros and cons” for The U.K moving forward?

I thought not.

Consider the incredible power Great Britain holds with respect to the entire planets banking system, consider The Bank Of England…consider the ridiculous notion of “royalty” and the planets fascination with it. The Rothschild’s. Reptilian shape shifters….whatever – you nut.

Consider that the entire planets “trading community” just got caught on the wrong side of the trade with Brexit news smashing faces and erasing “trillions” from global equities.

Talk about fear. Talk about a wash out. And for what?

For another 2 years of legal banter, political negotiations, bunk news headlines and the likes?

Change is upon us. You hate that. You fear it….and more than likely don’t really understand it.

The pound (GBP ) now back up a couple hundred points. The U.S Dollar down and ripe for the turn.

You see where I’m going with this?

Change your thinking………down means up.

Back On The Big Short – The U.S Dollar

Forex Kong 4 Comments

Knowledge is power right? Or so they say….

So…..if you’ve only got a view of oh…let’s say just a small portion of the market ( maybe a couple of blue chips, gold) and perhaps the U.S Dollar “against” your own local currency well…..one might suggest adding a couple more “market indicators” to the pile.

I know you may find this incredibly hard to believe, maybe even IMPOSSIBLE to believe but….The U.S Dollar “spike” here in the wake of Brexit market madness will soon provide one of the greatest “short opportunities” of our time ( slight exaggeration perhaps ).

While you’re all drooling over the massive moves “upward” against both the EUR and GBP ( no kidding right? As the vast majority of traders got “wacked” by Brexit ) The U.S Dollar “continues to sink” against its arch rival ( or at times good buddy ) the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The two are now almost at par.

Now….for those with near term memory loss – do you remember the continued explanation here at Kong with respect to money flows on this planet? The safe havens / funding currencies such as JPY going absolutely “parabolic” during times of “risk aversion”? The money that comes “flooding back” to these this currency as large-scale “carry trades” are wound down? Well……if you think the U.S Dollar is strong right now……why is it getting its ass kicked by the Yen? Why is USD losing all support / falling like a rock against JPY?

That’s what I call JPY stength. That’s what I call “risk off”.

The U.S Dollar will soon follow….providing for large scale gains SHORT USD against any number of currencies.

I will again be waiting for a daily “swing high” in USD ( likely within the next 3-4 days tops ) for another joyous ride “back on the big short” – USD.

Pack yer bags…this could be a loooong journey.

Brexit Actually Happens! – Speculators Washed Away

Forex Kong Got something to say?

“Brexit” –  I can’t stand these catch phrase / trending terms –  “Brexit”.

Although rather fitting in this case right…..who would’a thunk?

The hoity toits of Great Britain have actually pulled the plug on remaining a part of The E.U. Currency markets ( not to mention equity markets! ) are flipping out. Truly “exciting times” we live in today.

Now…..the question begs –  WTF? ( what the f*$k? )

Is this an economic issue? Political? Or……..perhaps even more telling – an IMMIGRATION ISSUE?

You don’t see it as close to home – like the Brits do. Things are clearly getting out of hand with respect to the huge numbers of people now “displaced” due to the insanity raging in the Middle East. the British people have stood up and said “hey!” We can’t just stand by and watch our great nation “dilute”.

Touchy stuff for sure – as I am a globalist.

The “movement of human beings on this earth” has accelerated considerably over the past few years, and has now gone “parabolic”. There is true and legitimate “fear” out there, as people ( mostly narrow-minded and slow ) hold tight to what they know…..what they understand –  what they feel is “safe”.

I don’t see this as an economic issue ( although that will come next ) but more so as another indication of the larger issue at hand….and the larger issue on most people’s minds. People are moving! The world is shrinking! People are starting to freak out.

Keep in mind Britain’s place on the global stage. They OWN the banks. They are all-powerful in ways the common man may never truly absorb/understand. The British Pound ( GBP ) isn’t going anywhere as the world’s “elite” hold it in vast quantities. They’ve already built their spaceships…and paid for it in pounds.

I’m curious to see what “spin” the two America clowns running for President put on it. The timing couldn’t be better.

In any case…..catch the news tomorrow morning, and expect all kinds of fireworks. I’ve not posted or traded for well over a month now – essentially proving a point.

Remember Apple short at 111.00? Remember suggestions that”2100″ in SP 500 was the high water mark? You’ve spent the last few months pulling out your hair trying to figure this out.

I’ve got a killer tan and cash in the bank. Hairline intact.

 

Forex_Kong_Kongdicator

Stop And Reverse – Day 3 Already

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Why not take a quick second to blow my own horn right? I mean…….why not!

Day 3 of the full “stop and reverse” on The U.S Dollar – timed exactly,faultlessly, superbly, superlatively, excellently, flawlessly, to perfection, without fault, ideally, inimitably, incomparably, impeccably, immaculately, exquisitely, consummately. Bang! After week s of pure profit on the short side….3 days straight up long. Job well done for those of you that actually trade.

In any case…..always a great feeling when you nail one….or two – maybe 3 in a row, as it certainly makes up for the couple that you get 100% completely wrong.

By the strength of the move in USD I think it’s fair to say we’ve got ourselves an intermediate bottom, a fantastic entry and many more days of upside so it’s unlikely I’ll be changing my tune over the next few weeks. Mind you….I will be there for the next turn lower…you can count on that.

This is a great time to get those gold and silver miners back on your radar, and start zooming in to find solid areas of support. I hope these little babies fall hard, as the longer term reversal is now so…. major weakness will provide buying opportunities.

Rock n roll people.

Hope you’ve managed to make a buck er two. I’m back on the beach.

 

Forex_Kong_Beach